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  • Key Signals To Watch For A Major Stock Market Top [View article]
    Thanks Eric, very thoughtful historical perspective. There are similar setups in 1992, 1995, 2004, 2005, 2006 ... we would have missed some great market runs! How do you think about the false positives?
    May 10, 2013. 10:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charting The Recovery [View article]
    Thanks for the great re-cap. The improvment in Commercial and Industrial Loans is an encouraging sign.
    Feb 22, 2012. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Important Correlation Between Consumer Confidence, Consumer Sentiment and the S&P 500 [View article]
    Looks more like the direction of consumer sentiment is really important not the level. Having said that both indices are holding steady at their current levels implying, possibly, that markets go up from here as there is less uncertainty in consumption tendencies.
    Dec 30, 2010. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When to Use a Covered-Call Strategy? Lessons From History [View article]
    Excellent article. I guess this is a more efficient way to particpate in equity risk. If we equate risk through leverage I can make 14.4% using BMX as opposed to 8.0% in SPX. However, there may be practical frictions that make this return difficult to achieve; for example, if we had invested in the iPath ETN, we would have underperformed the index by 60-70bps annually which eats into our outperformance materially. We could have made even more using the CBOE put index with even smaller vols.
    Dec 30, 2010. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anticipating Future Shocks [View article]
    ... only risk free if you can stay employed ...
    Jul 30, 2010. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Possible to Hedge Tail Risk? [View article]
    I'd love it if somebody paid me to lose money.
    Jul 14, 2010. 10:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment