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Brennanhay

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  • El Pollo Loco: PE 'Bust-Out', 20+ Years Of Failed Domestic Expansion, Pre-IPO Window Dressing Make An Ideal Short [View article]
    I agree with the author, and am happy to see such a detailed analysis such as this, but am going to add to it.

    Previously, El Pollo Loco had a real niche - superior fresh chicken for tacos & tortillas that was made to order, grilled on the spot. Incredibly fresh and tasty, they were a delicious establishment. Despite the excellent food, I don't know that the business of made-to-order fresh chicken tacos could scale up to the level of becoming a national chain or competing with Chipotle.

    In order to scale up, their menu has changed substantially. It now looks like Taco Bell II. That is not the awesome food that made them the place to go in Southern California. In attempting to ramp up for size, they have seriously COMPROMISED PRODUCT QUALITY. This for me is almost an unforgivable sin.

    If you compare Chipotle to top notch burrito stands, Chipotle can definitely compete with them. Chipotle has maintained quality while scaling up in size. I can go to Chipotle, get an epic sized burrito that tastes good and has quality ingredients* for a decent price.

    El Pollo Loco cannot do this, and since they have compromised what was previously a great product to scale up, I would not touch them with a 10 foot pole. That speaks greatly about management; this company is no Chipotle.

    * http://chip.tl/XDFusk
    Aug 21, 2014. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    This brings up some great points.

    It is strange to think that IBM, the CREATOR of virtualization and "cloud" is getting their lunch eaten by Amazon, Google, and other cloud companies.

    IBM had a 30 - 40 year lead on other companies in this space, but they failed to move it into x86, allowing VMware to do this, then setting the groundwork for other x86 virtualization solutions to follow.

    I do think IBM still has technical brilliance in a big way, but they are losing their edge by failing to invest.
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    IBM does not have 250k "Technical experts"

    Yes, they still have their brilliant fellows. However, they have gone into crummy overseas services in a big way and that means they have lots of dead weight.
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why iPhone 6 Won't Reverse Apple's Market Share Decline [View article]
    Growth in a market, where there are razor thin profit margins, is not a market that Apple is targeting. Apple has a higher retention rate than Android, so when Android hits market saturation, Apple will eat their lunch.

    "The premise is simple: When Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Android ownership peaks, the iPhone's 91% retention rate versus Android's 76% rate will drive iOS market share gains. Retention matters, Yankee Group argues. Yet, oddly, Apple's unparalleled customer loyalty has gone largely unnoticed in most market-share forecasts. It's something that should be closely considered in any sales projections." (Fool)

    http://bit.ly/1uGhBcO

    http://bit.ly/1noQ0ZL
    Jun 20, 2014. 02:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Leads In Telematics [View article]
    I wish this article included more analysis and less marketing.

    A real-time operating system is but a small component of the overall system. Launch efforts are not managed by the RTOS, but instead by mission management software. Many of the companies you mentioned are not specifically in the RTOS business, and Linux RTOS distributions are gaining market share.
    Dec 29, 2013. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Against The Grain: Buying Cisco On The Dip [View article]
    You bring up some excellent points around the SDN area in which Cisco is actively leading. These are some of the points I made in my own post.

    Good to see someone with industry experience that shares the same opinions!
    Nov 16, 2013. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Against The Grain: Buying Cisco On The Dip [View article]
    There are significant errors in what you wrote in many different places.

    Webex is not a consumer tool, it is a business tool that is replacing many traditional VTC setups. Webex is a popular tool with commercial business and government that aligns well with their VOIP and commercialized Jabber software.

    Cisco was the first hardware manufacturer to move a true enterprise hardware firewall, and hardware switch into the enterprise virtualization stack. Cisco also has created a new lines of business with virtualized infrastructure in the UCS series. Furthermore, Cisco has been proactive in making SDN based acquisitions.
    Nov 16, 2013. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric Shareholders Should Revolt [View article]
    In reading over the analysis, and the data you posted, I have reached a different conclusion.

    GECC profitability appears much higher during booms, and suppressed during recession/depressions.

    So, if GE was going to divest itself of GECC, the correct timing would be at periods of higher revenue, when, if, the economy turns around.
    Mar 23, 2013. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Builds A Sexier Image [View article]
    Concur with this, the new logos are a vast improvement.

    Finally AMD marketing is turning a corner.
    Mar 23, 2013. 12:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In 2013: Remember 1977 [View article]
    Are you certain your numbers are correct?

    The old federal retirement system may have some people retiring on it still, but the current one is much less generous.

    http://bit.ly/ZbOYFx

    At 160k that position is beyond a GS15, the most senior non-executive position in the US government. Unless it has special pay bonuses such as for law enforcement, or is actually a SES position I think your numbers are wrong.

    http://1.usa.gov/ZXfash

    Even here in the DC area where I live the GS15s don't make that much unless they are the extremely rare GS15 federal agents, but they likewise have an early retirement due to physical demands.

    A $6.7m annuity? I know a fed retiring at a senior level with 40 years in and her retirement is nowhere that luxurious.

    Recommend rechecking your numbers.
    Mar 2, 2013. 10:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Cannot Survive The Graphics War Like This [View article]
    You did not respond to any of the errors I pointed out, therefore you must accept that your article is wrong and needs either editing or retraction.
    Nov 22, 2012. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Latest Acquisition: Doubling Down On Its Mobile Bet [View article]
    Sounds like a real business response.

    What a joke!
    Nov 22, 2012. 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Cannot Survive The Graphics War Like This [View article]
    Pablo,

    you apparently are way behind the times and not keeping up with the status on the WSA. Stop posting bad information that hasn't been accurate for 8 months.

    http://bit.ly/Qc01OK
    Nov 22, 2012. 02:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Cannot Survive The Graphics War Like This [View article]
    I found even more errors in your article.

    "In Q3 2012, according to the latest data, AMD's share in desktop computers dropped to 35.7% from 40.7%, and in notebooks, it saw share plummet from 44.8% to 34.2%. Of course, as there are only two players in the industry -- it shouldn't be too hard to figure out where those missing percentage points went" - Ashraf, based on Barron's.

    If you look at http://bit.ly/XEprZs you'll notice INTC has 10.7% of the gamer playerbase and this growth relates basically to the release of Sandy Bridge and Ivy Bridge lines of processors. You characterized the industry as having only 2 players, that is error #1. Then you mis-attribute all growth to NVDA because you are pumping their stock instead of assigning some of it to INTC. That is error #2

    Then, you fail to understand that APUs (AMD) and integrated CPU (e.g. Ivy Bridge and Sandy Bridge from INTC) are cannibalizing the lower end of the discrete GPU market. Of course there will be contraction, but that works in favor of AMD & INTC while hurting NVDA. That is error #3

    Three errors, not counting the other errors I already pointed out.

    Low quality, erroneous research while pumping your own portfolio.

    Seeking Alpha deserves better than this!
    Nov 22, 2012. 02:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Cannot Survive The Graphics War Like This [View article]
    Ashraf,

    Please continue with the posts - you are providing good comedy!

    I'll reiterate. INTC is years behind AMD in GPUs, roughly half a product cycle, or more.

    INTC has to be paired with a discrete GPU to compete with an AMD APU, adding greatly to the power consumption. That you don't seem to understand this illustrates naivete.

    To quote Chris Angelini, "AMD counts on a “good enough” showing in x86-based applications and ample 3D muscle to play a number of modern games at mainstream resolutions. In exchange, you’re asked to accept comparatively high power use. But it’s a price point below what Intel charges for its neutered Core i3-3220 that swings favor toward the A10-5800K for enthusiasts on a strict budget.

    We’re power users, after all. We know how to cope with heat and noise; we can deal with a 100 W chip, even in an HTPC. But there’s no way to make the Core i3 look better unless you spring for an add-in card. AMD’s emphasis on balance makes the A10-5800K a better platform for more people than Intel’s closest competition."

    http://bit.ly/UUmJYt

    Your points on brand equity and marketing from Spam advertising were already nullified previously. Try better next time.
    Nov 22, 2012. 02:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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70 Comments
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