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roshanpf

roshanpf
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  • 10-Year Shiller P/E Exposes Cyclical Overvalution And Undervaluation [View article]
    Dear Mr. Smead,
    It was good to meet you in Singapore last year.
    Do you adjust the EPS for inflation, as Prof. Shiller does? That would result in perhaps a bigger premium over current P/E, as later earnings will have lesser value - for the cyclical stocks you mention.

    Regards
    Jan 29 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Must-Have In Your Gold Portfolio [View article]
    More articles please. Very impressed with your responses.
    Jan 11 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook 2013: Americans Are Going Broke [View article]
    The ability to tax US persons and US companies is the primary asset, present and future, of the US Govt. This is apart from property and entities owned by the US government.

    Who "owns" this? The holders of US treasuries, who are primarily overseas entities, are in line to be paid by the government's revenues.

    From Wikipedia:
    "As of January 2011, foreigners owned $4.45 trillion of U.S. debt, or approximately 47% of the debt held by the public of $9.49 trillion and 32% of the total debt of $14.1 trillion. The largest holders were the central banks of China, Japan, Brazil, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Switzerland and Russia. The share held by foreign governments has grown over time, rising from 13% of the public debt in 1988 to 25% in 2007."
    Jan 1 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Is One Of The Best Investment Opportunities On The Dow [View article]
    Since the machines last for a long time, any decline in the rate of capex growth for the end industries, or a pause in capex (e.g. mining companies in AU stopping iron ore expansion projects) will see revenues fall off a cliff. So the straight line projection for revenues for next 6 years is too simplistic and does not take into account the deeply cyclical nature of the end business (mining capex, construction activity, etc.)

    I agree with other commentators that CAT prices its product at a premium, but can justify it with lower downtime, as I heard this from a Mongolian mine operator.
    Dec 30 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inside A Slaughter: Why Freeport-McMoRan Lost 16% [View article]
    I am so sorry, you cannot comment on FCX without including the impact of the new companies, and the premium paid on those. All premium paid is taken from existing shareholders of FCX and hence the fall. It is natural. The onus is on FCX to prove that the value of those acquisitions is so much more then the huge premiums paid. Given limited synergies (copper and oil?), it is unlikely, as corporate overhead will be such a small part of total costs.
    Dec 7 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ronald W. Chan's 'The Value Investors' [View article]
    a bit of a cookie-cutter style adopted throughout the book, but I learnt a lot, and opened my mind to learning about more valueinvestors other than the usual superinvestors of graham and doddville.

    Highly recommended to take you up the curve, even if you have already read all the other books on value investing.
    Nov 19 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Softbank's Acquisition Of Sprint Looks Likely To Go Through And Benefit Shareholders [View article]
    Gentlemen,
    Old Sprint is not same as new Sprint, as there is USD8bn added. There is a risk arbitrage here, even with 55% prorata on the tender offer, of about 10% in 9 months. You can choose depending on your alternatives
    Oct 15 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Big Profits By Trading King Coal [View article]
    A small trading range for a high beta stock is a recipe for disaster.
    Jun 25 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hunt For Illiquidity [View article]
    Very insightful. I guess a lot of people who do illiquid investments expect a premium, but they don't get it. In spite of this, they will still do it - for reasons similar to why people buy a Mont Blanc pen when a Bic writes just fine: conspicuous consumption, feel good factor, feeling part of an elite/select set.

    May 26 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Value Trap Of Deeply Cyclical Stocks [View article]
    Use warning: Gap down openings can triumph over trailing stops.
    Feb 10 12:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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