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sean.parmelee

sean.parmelee
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  • The Great Bull-Bear Disconnect [View article]
    Movements in the price of gold are not solely attributable to inflation. They are far more significantly attributable to supply and demand, and trader sentiment. The U.S. dollar has definitely not lost 80% of its value in the last decade, despite gold's 5X rise. Similarly, when the gold bubble of the 70s popped in 1980, the U.S. dollar did not suddenly appreciate by a factor of three, despite gold's 67% collapse.
    Apr 5, 2012. 03:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Price Tells Us Nothing About Inflation [View article]
    There's a stunning, willful ignorance on the part of gold bugs when it comes to inflation. No intelligent person could look at a chart of the historical price of gold and say that sudden, massive deflation hit the world in 1980. Why? Because it clearly didn't.

    But here people are today, making absurd statements like "real prices measured in gold," as if the U.S. dollar has somehow lost 80% of its value in the last decade. Once again, this clearly has not happened, but let's not let facts get in the way of a good argument.

    Gold bugs either haven't bothered to look at the historical chart, or if they have have, they claim "this time is different." Either way, they deny even the possibility of a bubble in gold prices. Why gold should be any different from any other speculative commodity (or currency, if you prefer), all of which hold intrinsic value, and all of which are subject to repeated run-ups and collapses, is never explained.
    Apr 5, 2012. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep into the middle of the night in Brussels, EU leaders are still at work, but what has emerged doesn't sound good. Reuters reports diplomats saying treaty change for all 27 states isn't happening, but is still alive for the 17 nations that use the euro. A sizable rally in stock futures has reversed, with the S&P down a hair after being up about 0.8%. The euro gives up about a 40 pip gain since the NY close.  [View news story]
    Tack, whether you or the bond markets consider it rational or not is irrelevant. S&P's downgrade clearly precipitated a huge decline in equities, and fear of European downgrades has catalyzed similar declines since then. Markets are irrational. Those of us here who trade on a very short time frame take this kind of thing seriously.
    Dec 8, 2011. 11:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barney Frank of Massachusetts will announce today he will not be running for another term in Congress. In office since 1981 and a former head of the Financial Services Committee, Frank has had one of the most powerful voices - if not the most powerful voice - in nearly every key U.S. financial policy for at least a decade.  [View news story]
    Not a coincidence. Ever check where his boyfriend works?
    Nov 28, 2011. 10:19 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Trouble Brewing For The Global Economy [View article]
    "Actually everybody who is anybody has figured out that a market crash is a possibility and to some extent this is already priced into the markets."

    Please explain how a market crash can be priced into the markets, in advance.
    Oct 14, 2011. 10:38 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pres. Obama weighs in on Bank of America's (BAC) new debit card fee: "You don't have some inherent right just to - you know, get a certain amount of profit... You have to treat [customers] fairly and transparently." The banking industry reacts: "As a direct result of the Durbin Amendment, consumers have started paying for financial services they previously enjoyed free of charge."  [View news story]
    This was all totally predictable and Barney Frank himself went on the record some time ago saying this would happen, and opposing the plan for that very reason. If our bureaucratic overlords can't even get something this simple right, it is by no means a stretch of the imagination to think that giant legislative monstrosities like the health care reform law, the rest of Dodd-Frank, the stimulus, and so forth, will have innumerable unintended consequences for taxpayers. The real kicker is that some of them might not be so "unintended" after all.
    Oct 4, 2011. 10:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The underlying message of the Wall Street protests is something the big banks and corporate America may finally have to grapple with before it becomes dangerous: accountability for unchecked power and greed. They're the "Tea Party with brains" - but what do they want in capitalism's place?  [View news story]
    Sorry, Virginia, you're uninformed. These brats have openly stated their opposition to "capitalism," whatever that word means to them.
    Oct 4, 2011. 10:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The underlying message of the Wall Street protests is something the big banks and corporate America may finally have to grapple with before it becomes dangerous: accountability for unchecked power and greed. They're the "Tea Party with brains" - but what do they want in capitalism's place?  [View news story]
    We have a strict "no trolls" policy, you know.
    Oct 4, 2011. 09:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Raiders: The Dark Side Of Short Selling [View article]
    Calling short sellers "thieves" when markets are by definition a voluntary exchange is preposterous.
    Sep 30, 2011. 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Raiders: The Dark Side Of Short Selling [View article]
    Another absurd article blaming other people for the author's inability to pick winners. Everyone is either a victim or a victimizer in Ellen Brown's world. How convenient that she is a lawyer.

    If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
    Sep 30, 2011. 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Reason Why Stocks Are Down Today [View article]
    You have a disturbing and poisonous view of history and of the German people. I wish the dislike button were still here.
    Sep 23, 2011. 09:41 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Reason Why Stocks Are Down Today [View article]
    What an absurd article. Salmon is arguing with the market. There's no reason why stocks are down? As in, all the market participants today acted without purpose? No, what Salmon is really saying is, "The net result of the actions of today's market participants differs from what my actions were (or would have been)." For Salmon to conclude that more people were "wrong" than "right" today means that in Salmon's view, Salmon is always "right" and when the market doesn't do what he expected, it's because the market was "wrong." Except the market never is. Sellers were more desperate to sell than buyers were to buy--that's the reason stocks are down today. Markets are driven by sentiments--just because you don't share them doesn't mean they're not real or they won't continue to influence the markets going forward.
    Sep 22, 2011. 05:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The President is to speak momentarily on his approach for reducing the deficit. His goal is to reach "primary balance" - spending no longer adding to the debt - by 2017. Savings are to come primarily through Medicare and Medicaid, though without cutting benefits. Extra revenues are planned also, notably through the "Buffett Rule."  [View news story]
    Also, keep in mind that the primary effect of ObamaCare is dump millions of new people into Medicaid--and some would say, lay the groundwork for forcing the entire population into it. If the model is unsustainable now, imagine how bad things will become in 2014 and beyond.
    Sep 19, 2011. 06:13 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Should Not Try To Time Markets [View article]
    "Except that what is obvious now wasn't in any way, shape or form obvious back then when it actually mattered."

    Nothing is ever certain, but markets are about probability and risk, not certainty. The task of an investor, even a buy-and-hold investor, is to assess the probability that a significant market decline will continue, and act accordingly. I have drawn linear trend lines through cyclical bull and cyclical bear markets, and for each session close, computed the percent deviation from the cyclical trend line. I then plot a histogram of these deviations, and fit a probability distribution to the data. If the markets are down 15%, like they are lately, I am able to say what percentile this deviation from the bullish trend line represents, and hence, assess the likelihood that we are experiencing a new cyclical bear and not simply a hiccup in the old bull. Whether individual investors are willing or able to engage in this kind of analysis isn't the point--my point is that professionals, like the author of this article, should be doing it for them, not telling them "never sell anything".
    Sep 12, 2011. 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama outlines an ambitious plan: $170B in payroll tax relief for workers and their employers, $194B for an extension of jobless benefits, a $105B investment to rebuild roads, bridges and other crumbling infrastructure, plus $35B to help states prevent further layoffs of teachers and law enforcement - all to be paid for through the existing $1T budget cut put through Congress last month.  [View news story]
    It's going to be tough getting Mickey Mouse and whole sports teams to vote this cycle, what with ACORN off the federal dole. I guess the dead will have to suffice.
    Sep 8, 2011. 10:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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