I rub shoulders with the brightest and sharpest financial minds on a full-time basis. I have made great calls, I have made stupid calls over the course of my career as a professional investment executive.
As a student of the market, I use my educational background in psychology and business to understand the market environment and identify opportunities for generating performance. I have completed my MBA, obtained my CFA charter and I am a licensed derivatives trader.
My biggest aspiration for contributing on SA is to shine a light on stocks, bonds and volatility instruments so that the readers may learn and profit. I also find that writing to be quite stimulative and helps me improve my thought process, which is a huge bonus.
I typically write about oil exporting countries, as well as other oil related topics. I also ocassionally analyze stocks and other commodities.
My oil analysis is supported by tanker tracking data. As I know, THIS INFORMATION IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR FREE ANYWHERE ELSE. Insipired by #OOTT, I developed my own algorithm to identify how much oil is floating from one port to another. Using weekly updated model enables me to identify changes in oil flows ahead of official data sources. By mining this data, I am currently capable to produce following reports:
- Exporting country breakdown by sources of export (pie chart)
- Oil output to date (cumulative line chart)
I constantly improve the model and will soon start writing importing countries, including USA. I am interested to know how to make my writing better; so feel free to let me know what other data/reports you would like to see.
I am a policy risk analyst with more than 25 years of experience in China's political economy. I believe in looking beyond the spreadsheet to identify the wider issues leading to policy change - and what that means for investment decisions in a market where the stock index is more responsive to the velocity of political gossip than the velocity of money.
Full-time investor with a medium-term outlook. Former equity research intern and a senior year undergraduate student.
In order to track the news and data I am focusing on, as well as to be aware of my positions, please consider following me on twitter: @AntonTyumin
Thank you for reading my articles. I am always open to any investment-related conversations, so feel free to contact me either here or by email: email@example.com
John Thomas graduated with a bachelor’s degree in biochemistry with honors and a minor in mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles (U.C.L.A.) in 1974. He moved to Tokyo, Japan where he was employed by a medium-sized Japanese securities house. Thomas became fluent in Japanese and was trained as a domestic Japanese research analyst and money manager. In 1977 Thomas became the Tokyo correspondent for The Economist magazine and the Financial Times of London. Thomas traveled extensively throughout Asia, interviewing premiers, presidents and prime ministers, writing on macroeconomic trends, and producing countless features about individual companies. Thomas witnessed China’s cultural revolution and was one of the first American correspondents to enter China prior to the U.S. normalization of relations. Thomas authored several books about the Japanese financial system still in use by business schools today. In 1983 Thomas joined a top US investment bank in New York with the mandate to develop an international equity business for the firm. In 1985 he moved to London, England to establish a presence in Japanese equity derivatives for the firm. In 1989 Thomas was appointed a director of one of the big three Swiss Banks with a mandate to design sophisticated hedging strategies for the bank’s considerable holdings of Japanese equity warrants and convertible bonds. With the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, Thomas was drafted by the US Marine Corp to serve as a pilot. In 1990 Thomas became a pioneer in the nascent hedge fund industry by founding the first dedicated Japanese hedge fund. The firm managed segregated accounts for a variety of government agencies, banks, and high net worth individuals in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. After a decade of spectacular absolute and relative performance he sold his firm in 1999 and retired to manage his personal investments in the oil and gas industry. Seeing incredible opportunities in the marketplace and yearning for the adrenaline and satisfaction offered by active management, Thomas launched a new hedge fund in 2007. In his free time Thomas is a commercial aircraft pilot, long distance hiker and mountain climber, wine collector and avid photographer.
Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily financial blog:www.jugglingdynamite.com
Danielle worked as an attorney until 1997 when she was recruited to work for an international securities firm. Becoming a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), she now helps to manage millions for some of North America’s wealthiest families as a Portfolio Manager and analyst at the independent investment counsel firm she co-founded Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc. www.venablepark.com. In recent years Danielle has been writing, speaking and educating industry professionals and investors on the risks and realities of investment behaviors as well as writing and producing her own health and wealth podcast series: “Not so common sense” and “Life Paths”.
A member of the internationally recognized CFA Institute, Toronto Society of Financial Analysts, and the Law Society of Upper Canada. Danielle is also an avid health and fitness buff.
Daryl Montgomery is the organizer of the New York Investing meetup, a 7,000 member educational group that provides the public with unbiased stock, bond, currency and commodity market information. For details, see: http://ow.ly/Y6CNhT (it's free to join). The group is the largest investing meetup in the world. It holds monthly general meetings, offers small classes on investing topics, has webinars and provides individual tutoring.
Montgomery, a former professor and expert witness in court cases on data reliability (up to the Supreme Court), has written a number of books on investing and approximately 700 articles on financial topics. He was formerly the chief blogger for the "Helicopter Economics Investing Guide". He has done extensive research on optimal use of technical indicators. Montgomery has never worked for, nor has any association with any Wall Street company and this allows him to bring an independent perspective to market analysis.
The New York Investing meetup's strength is in calling market turns. It called the top in gold and silver in March 2008 and the exact day of the oil bottom in February 2009 and almost the exact peak price in Silver in 2011. The group went to an all-cash position starting in September 2015. The New York Investing meetup uses its own approach to technical analysis and currently has access to a proprietary model that predicts tops and bottoms in stocks and commodities.
Ivan Martchev is an investment specialist with Navellier Private Client Group. Previously, Ivan served as editorial director at InvestorPlace Media. Ivan was editor of Louis Rukeyser's Mutual Funds Newsletter and associate editor of Personal Finance Newsletter. Ivan is also co-author of The Silk Road to Riches (Financial Times Press). The book provided analysis of geopolitical issues and investment strategy in natural resources and emerging markets with an emphasis on Asia. The book also correctly predicted the collapse in the U.S. real estate market, the rise of precious metals, and the resulting increased investor interest in emerging markets. Ivan’s commentaries have been published by MSNBC, The Motley Fool and others. Currently Ivan is a weekly editor of Navellier’s Market Mail and a contributor to Marketwatch.
Bill Gunderson @billgunderson is the CEO and Chief Market Strategist of Gunderson Capital Managment in San Diego, CA.
He is also a professional money manager, former research analyst, author of Best Stocks Now, and developer of the Best Stocks Now smartphone app.
He offers four free weeks to his weekly Best Stocks Now to Seeking Alpha readers at gundersoncapital.com
He also hosts a daily stock market radio show that is syndicated nationwide on the Salem Broadcast Network.
Bill has appeared on the Fox Business Channel and on Bloomberg Radio numerous times .His articles have been published in Barron's, Forbes, TheStreet.com and numerous other publications.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or by calling (855)611-BEST.
I taught my self investing after I got tired of losing money in the hands of so called "professionals" over the years. I figured it's better if I lose my own money - at least I can blame no one else for my mistakes.
I immigrated to Canada from India in the 80's with $10 in my pocket and have not done badly. I am grateful to Canada for giving me the opportunity to succeed and build a good life. I lived in the US for a couple of years but returned to Canada. The similarities and differences between the two countries fascinate me, I have a Bachelor's degree in Pharmacy (I am a Ontario licensed Pharmacist), and was "retired" recently from the R&D department of a major Pharma company. I also have an MBA from the University of Saskatchewan.
Over the last 15 years, through a combination of interest, hardwork and luck, I have accumulated a portfolio which has made me financially independent (at least on paper), while making all the rookie mistakes and enduring two big bear markets fully invested (the last one with leverage) and holding a full time professional job and raising a family. The 2007-09 bear market has taught me that technical's are important and its important to raise cash at the right time. I follow the economic indicators carefully with the hope of avoiding (at least partially) a bear market. I continue to learn from experience and the read economic and financial commentary voraciously. I like to think I am playing the long game which takes guts, skill and patience.
My investing style is value - with a GARP orientation. My experience is that a few home runs make up for a many strike-outs, though now I focus more on stealing singles. I realize that Investing is a "losers game", to win you need to minimize your losses but at the same time, if there is no risk, there is no gain. I like to be highly diversified and routinely follow over a 100 positions. I invest, not trade, waiting patiently for a fat pitch.
Thanks for stopping by and good luck investing.
Harvard College, BA, Economics; Stanford Graduate School of Business, MBA
Managing Director, Boslego Risk Services
I founded Boslego Risk Services and became a recognized expert in the area of energy price risk management (hedging), providing oil and natural gas hedging strategies to major oil companies such as Exxon, Shell, Mobil, Chevron, Texaco and Phillips; to the national oil companies of Norway, Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, France and Italy; to major users of energy products, such as Delta Airlines, United Airlines, Burlington-Northern Railroad, and Canadian Pacific Railway; to major trading firms, such as Enron, Phibro, Sempra and Vitol; and to large hedge funds (confidential).
As the recognized expert in energy hedging, I was selected by the former president, John Treat, of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) to write the chapter on hedging in his book, Energy Futures.
I expanded my risk analysis and hedging services beyond the energy markets to financial markets. Given the failure of traditional portfolio diversification to limit losses to levels tolerable to most investors in 2008/09, I created investment strategies utilizing risk management techniques for hedge funds and financial firms.
Robert P. Balan has more than 4 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
Bruce Wilds is an independent businessman and licensed general contractor that owns real estate in the Midwest, his holdings include apartments, retail space, and office complexes. He has invested in several businesses and traded both commodities and stocks for several decades. Wilds considers himself well anchored to reality and the economy as he maintains, designs, and leases buildings. His work has made him keenly aware of rapidly changing lifestyles and trends in new business formation. The not for profit blog he maintains incorporates many of the experiences and knowledge garnered from his hands-on business style, extensive travels, and studies of history, politics and economics.
Bruce Wilds is also the author of the book "Advancing Time", the book focuses on how the ever quickening pace of change impacts today’s society and the massive challenges it creates. He feels that it is crucial we understand that we are living in a unique era the likes never before experienced by past generations. History viewed in the framework of mans time on earth forms the crux of this somewhat radical perspective. Journeys from the beginning of man to our current state helps us make sense of our fast changing chaotic world. Advancing Time illuminates the responsibilities society faces. Used as a tool Wilds wrote it with the hope it would help clarifies the choices before mankind, guiding and giving hope to those who want to have a positive impact.
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.
Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.
Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.
By being so ultra conservative Friedrich is designed to identify bargains that Wall Street investors may have overlooked. Companies shares may trade on the stock market but the companies themselves operate on Main Street, so Friedrich is designed to generate a Main Street price per share first and only then does he go to Wall Street and see the price for which Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” is offering the shares.
Marc Chandler has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for 25 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. A prolific writer and speaker he appears regularly on CNBC and has spoken for the Foreign Policy Association. In addition to being quoted in the financial press daily, Chandler has been published in the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, and the Washington Post. In 2009 Chandler was named a Business Visionary by Forbes.
Marc's commentary can be found at his blog (www.marctomarket.com) and twitter www.twitter.com/marcmakingsense
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, he established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; I have pretty much "been there and done that" at one point or another. I am currently a silent partner for an RIA in Houston, Texas.
The majority of my time is spent analyzing, researching and writing commentary about investing, investor psychology and macro-views of the markets and the economy. My thoughts are not generally mainstream and are often contrarian in nature but I try an use a common sense approach, clear explanations and my “real world” experience in the process.
I am the Chief Editor of the REAL INVESTMENT REPORT, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to your money and life.
I also write a daily blog which is read by thousands nationwide from individuals to professionals at www.realinvestmentadvice.com.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
A lifelong student of the markets, speculator, and investor, decades of experience have forged Adam into a hardcore contrarian. He believes in buying low when others are afraid, then later selling high when others are brave. He founded the financial-market research company Zeal LLC, and continues to write acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters.
Christopher G.DeMaria is a member of the Global Community. Having lived abroad for more than 18 years, he studied in South America, Europe, Southeast Asia and the United States. Chris is the owner of DeMaria Financial Services and an Investment Advisor Representative with Kovack Investment Advisors, Inc. He began his career in financial planning and portfolio management in March of 1998 after earning a degree from Ohio University where he majored in Economics and minored in Business Administration.
Chris focuses on achieving "positive" results regardless of how the market indices perform. Unlike some managers, Chris manages the risk of each individual portfolio rather than remaining invested at all times. Chris strives to identify low risk entry points and conversely, uses a calculated exit strategy when market risk is high or positions are lagging or down. Chris does not try to beat an index every quarter. Instead, he is focused on the potential for low risk profits. If you manage risk well and avoid large corrections, you will naturally create much better results.
There is no new thing under the sun Ecc 1:9
The headlines in the news change daily and market leaders change regularly but, the one thing that remains consistent over time is how humans react to stock market volatility (aka fear and greed). During highly volatile markets and market inflection points, human emotion is a consistent and measurable phenomenon that generally isn’t accounted for in any research report or stock analysis. This observation precipitated the creation of the proprietary market risk meter for quantifying said human emotion and consequent reactions to short term market activity. Regardless of education, wealth, knowledge, or any other factor that may make a person seem wise, people react the same way when fear or greed sets in. No matter how many times a fire drill is rehearsed, when an emergency presents itself, the exit is often not pleasant.
This methodology is by no means perfect however, it is a best effort attempt to quantify the belief that many things will return to some sort of mean over time and that people consistently exhibit the same undulating responses to fear and greed. Consequently, it is possible to view the ebbs and flows of the markets as ocean tides. When the tide comes in, risk is higher and conversely, when the tide flows out, risk is lower. Although it is not possible to consistently predict exactly when a correction or bounce will occur, it is possible to determine when a change in trend is occurring. Furthermore, a sophisticated investor can often determine when there is more or less inherent risk in the market. It is also possible to examine whether the tide has come in further than normal, presenting greater risk or gone out further than normal, providing a rare lower-risk entry point.
When risk is elevated, active investors should begin trimming losers, laggards, and potentially take partial gains from winners in portfolios. Investors may also consider reviewing the types of positions worth holding when things get ugly. Long-term asset allocation investors can look at re-balancing portfolios by shifting equity gains to other less market correlated asset classes like bonds or cash alternatives. Some investors may also consider hedging strategies like selling calls, purchasing puts, or stop limit orders to try to mitigate risk.
Conversely, when risk is lower, a plan of action should already be in place with a buy list of favored mutual funds, equities, and ETF's having been identified. Secondly, it is essential to identify a high volume, high volatility, downside trading day that is coupled with a strong reversal and 1-2 days' follow through. When all of these conditions are met, this methodology recommends purchasing equities.
Methodology for determining favored sectors
Christopher G. DeMaria has over 18 years of experience managing money for individuals, corporations, and foundations. While adapting from successes and failures throughout some of the most challenging markets since the Great Depression (1998 to 2016), his methodology has been continuously tested over that time in order to improve its reliability and effectiveness.
Part of his investment methodology includes a quantitative approach to identifying changes in trends at early stages and continually monitoring their relative performance against one-another. This process uses simple mathematical ratios (IE: SPY /EFA or SPY/XLB) to determine when one asset class is performing better than another. When properly calibrated, these ratios provide a precise moment when the trend in one asset changes compared to another.
This process is most effective when portfolio holdings are methodically adjusted based on different levels of market risk and relative asset class performance. As stated above, when risk is higher, portfolio holdings should be reallocated out of lagging or losing asset classes and moved into leading, lower risk, or non-market correlated assets. This process inherently frees up cash for future “lower risk entry points” when assets can be allocated
back into equities and other favored assets. Essentially this is a systematic approach designed to attempt to purchase leading asset classes when market risk is lower and sell lagging and losing positions when market risk is higher. In the end, the goal is to buy low and sell high.
There are three key factors to successfully implementing this portfolio management process. The first is having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the financial markets which takes time to acquire. The second is having adequate time and dedication to develop skill. The third is having the proper discipline to continually monitor the process. Many individuals have some or even all of these characteristics but, simply lack the time, interest, or expertise to dedicate themselves to managing their own portfolios properly. With the exception of those whom are confident in their knowledge, skill, and discipline to manage this process, it is strongly advised to seek professional assistance.
This Risk Managed Global Sector Rotation strategy has been well documented on Seeking Alpha during the most recent correction. Furthermore, a full cycle from high risk to low risk and subsequent recovery was well documented on Seeking Alpha in 2014.
The Lows Still Appear To Be In...What's Next?
Wed, Feb. 24th, 2016 (confirming successful retest of lows and providing actionable ideas)
Weekly Leading Sectors Report
Wed, Feb. 10th, 2016 (confirminglows and providing actionable ideas)
In Hoc Signo Vinces... What Market Signs Are You Watching?
Fri, Feb. 5th, 2016 (confirming lows and providing a macroeconomic overview)
The Lows Appear To Be In... What's Next?
Tue, Jan. 26 (confirming lows and providing actionable ideas)
How Can You Identify Market Turning Points?... Reloaded
Thu, Jan. 21 (identifying lows, Dow Theory discussion and providing actionable ideas)
2014 Full Cycle
This Looks Like The Lower-Risk Buying Opportunity We've Been Waiting For
Oct. 24th, 2014 (identifying lows and providing actionable ideas)
Preparing For A Lower-Risk Entry Point In A Secular Bull Market
Oct. 13th, 2014(preparing for the lows and providing actionable ideas)
The Quiet Before The Little Storm
Jul. 8th, 2014 (warning about higher risk and preparing for volatility and short term correction)
How Can You Adjust Your Investment Strategy To Enhance Returns?
May 28th, 2014 (explanation of a possible long term secular bull market and actionable ideas)
Massimo Armanini is CEO of Libra Capital, and Finance Professor (Professore Incaricato) at LIUC University in Milan.
He holds an MBA from the Wharton Business School, Philadelphia (where he won the ENI scholarship).
He is chairman of the board of Siirtec Nigi Holding.
He was CEO of the internet company Jumpy, CEO of Beatrice Food Canada, and chairman of the supervisory board of Pliva, the pharmaceutical company.
Before then, he has been working as a managing director in major investment banks for over 20 years in London, Milan and Zurich (Deutsche Bank and UBS).
He has been CIO and CEO of the 1 billion usd investment fund Pacific Capital.( www.pacific-capital.lu)
Doug Eberhardt is a 30 year investment professional offering his analysis on 46 ETFs 5 days a week providing buy and sell recommendations. He is the author of the soon to be released book "Illusions of Wealth" that offers a fresh look on how investors can profit. He has written the book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" and is a broker/dealer selling gold and silver coins and bars at 1% over wholesale cost to investors who are looking for "real wealth" diversification and protection from currency depreciation.
I am a metals analyst at FastMarkets (UK independent research boutique) in London. Previously, I worked as a precious metals analyst at INTL FC Stone (US brokerage firm) in London under the direction of senior commodity analyst Edward Meir, while I provided some investment consulting services in Paris. In addition to my strong interest in understanding the metals complex from a microeconomic and macroeconomic perspective, I spend a good deal of my spare time in managing my portfolio. I started a discretionary global macro portfolio in 2010 after elaborating my own investment philosophy, largely influenced by George Soros and Karl R. Popper. At present, I continue to work on my philosophical framework in order to improve my decision-making process under uncertainty. I was born in Paris, France. I graduated from University of Assas with a MSc in finance (2011), I also earned a MSc Research in economics from University of Sorbonne (2012), where I published a research thesis intituled “Is gold a speculative bubble?” under the direction of Natixis Chief Economist Patrick Artus, and I finally received a MSc in management from ESSEC Business School (2014). I launched a blog in 2013, Mikz Economics, in which I share some of my research as well as trade ideas. Follow me on Twitter @MikzEconomics to get the most updated metals news https://twitter.com/MikzEconomics
Volte-Face Investments represents the writings of an independent investment manager who managed a long/short equity fund. The author worked for a major Wall Street firm for 12 years before leaving to start his own business in 2009. Since then he has been pursuing investment management full time. The purpose of the articles is to explain the thinking with regards to a particular investment opportunity and to provide readers with a foundation from which they can begin their own due diligence. Volte-Face Investment's writings are not solicitations to transact any security. For further information or consulting, please contact directly via direct message or direct message on twitter @voltefaceinvest
Michael J. Clark was born and raised in Sinclair, Wyoming. He is a poet, novelist, artist, historian, and market analyst.
He began investing in 1985. He read ˜The Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee and was hooked. From 1985-1987 he made astonishing gains in the stock market; and then stocks collapsed in 1987. Since then he has been attempting to 'solve the stock market', with many failures and some successes. The system he developed, called CGTS, Clark's Gate Timining System, is algorithm-based. What this fancy word means is that he proposes a series of necessary steps based on technical analysis propositions, which, when met, trigger trading signals. His four main trading systems are up a combined 31% for 2015.
From his website:
Now that QE is supposedly ending, markets are already becoming more tradable, with opportunities to make money on both long and short trades at the same time. QE tended to make all boats rise, except precious metals. This made it more difficult to play the short side of the markets. Now, both sides seem to be more accessible to successful trades. This will also be more of a challenge for investors. The FED will have to eventually abandon the markets to their own destinies, and stop spending trillions to protect investors AND corporations from their mistakes. As this begins to happen (I am not sure it has happened yet), informed advice will become even more necessary for investors.
Rules of Investment
Rule #1: Never go against the trend. The majority is often wrong; but the minority is often wrong also. The sticky issue with this advice is at transition points, at which a Bull Market turns into a Bear Market or vice-versa. Big Money often anticipates and/or causes this transition. So pay attention to what Big Money is really doing, not what they say they are doing.
Rule #2: You don’t need a broker who makes his living off of your money. Most brokerage firms buy a position in a stock quietly and slowly. When the stock has appreciated significantly they add the stock to their buy recommendations. Then they begin selling their position while they are encouraging their clients to buy the stock. Most firms never issue sell recommendations. If they do, beware: they are probably trying to buy your stock after a huge sell-off.
Rule #3: Watch your own emotions because they are often signaling something. When fear turns to greed and visions of unlimited wealth, we are probably near a top in a trade and we should get ready to sell. When hope and denial turn to fear and visions of an unlimited loss, we are probably approaching a bottom in a trade. (See Rule #1 however.)
Rule #4: Trade with a system to complement your gut reactions. Follow the system no matter what, even if it means taking a loss. Don’t get lazy with your money and sink into denial. Use a system to help you refrain from 'playing a hunch'.
Rule #5: HEDGE YOUR PORTFOLIO AGAINST LOSSES. How does one do this? By having a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. But have a system that signals both long and short positions, and keep your portfolio balanced around 50% long and 50% short. This may seem to contradict Rule #1. It does not. When something is in a long trend, something else is in a short trend. Find what is long and what is short. If stocks are long, gold or oil may be short. Use ETFs and options to help establish this portfolio balance. Our system gives trading signals every day for both long and short positions.
More information on CGTS is available at:
His fine arts portfolio can be found at the following address:
His writing portfolio can be found at:
Those interested in his book "Turn Out the Lights", a description of the metaphysical causes of the 2008 financial meltdown, can access the draft at:
Michael Clark has retired after working 30 years in academia, relocated to Hanoi, Vietnam for six years, and has returned to America in 2014.
Bert Dohmen is a professional trader, investor, and analyst. As founder of Dohmen Capital Research group and newly established Dohmen Strategies, LLC, he has been giving his analysis and forecasts to traders and investors for over 38 years. He has been a special guest on CNBC, Fox Business News, and CNN among others, in addition to having his analysis featured in some of the best known and reputable investment publications including the Wall Street Journal, Money Magazine, Barron’s, Future’s Magazine, and Forbes.
Dohmen’s firms currently offer 4 highly valuable services for serious investors and traders, including the award-winning Wellington Letter, offering fundamental and technical analysis of the economies and investment markets. In addition, The Smarte Trader and Fearless ETF Trader is ideal for astute short-term traders, and the exciting new HedgeFolios program for active investors looking to protect their portfolios and profit from market downturns.