ytterbius

China Solar Safari: Hunting for Five Value Companies

BryBry, you should do more research before you blindly follow Jim Cramer in his FSLR right off the road and into the ditch. FSLR is in trouble, only the same analysts that love to put sell ratings on Silicon-based technology continue to refuse to talk about the real issue for FSLR, which is their dependence on Tellurium.

The Tellurium Supply Conjecture and the Future of First Solar

Beautifully done. The argument is made with high credibility. I'll be interested in your book when it comes out.

Here's my spiel on FSLR that I wrote some time ago. Your estimation of the Te supply is surely more accurate, so that should be taken into account.

americansolareconomy.b...

CIGS: Will Technology Be Revealed Before Funding Dries Up?

Interesting. Thanks!

Solar Industry's Long Term Outlook

Excellent article!

Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking

Shortsqueeze is wrong, if you're looking to know what the effective short interest levels are, because, as mentioned, Light Peng, the CEO owns about 70% of the float. He's sold a total of 3 Million Shares since the IPO, and the rest he keeps, so yeah, there's only about 35 Million shares floating for shorts to cover with.

Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking

SHintheCity, low polysilicon prices, and corresponding decreases in Solar prices bode well for the industry and LDK in the short term. Lower prices will bring more buyers of Solar Products, along with the Stimulus that David mentioned, as well as the 30% (no cap) Investment Tax Credit that was passed by Congress in the Bailout Bill.

I say in the short term, because as things heat up in the long term, poly prices will undoubtedly start to increase again, and this is where LDK's in-house poly production will make the difference. While everybody else is trying to do business in an environment of increasing poly prices, LDK will have their own supply at decreasing prices.

Also, you should know that LDK doesn't make cells, they make wafers, and their customers do the rest. As David mentioned, LDK is sold out for the year already, and many of their contracts are at a fixed price.

Oh, and as for the crashing housing market, it's true that the homebuilders aren't building right now, and they shouldn't be. The housing glut isn't to be solved by building more houses, but a heck of alot of those workers, and the housing industry as a whole, can benefit by moving to UPGRADE some of that existing housing, in the form of value added by Solar Installation / Energy Efficiency Technology.

5 Stocks to Buy if Obama Wins

Alpha, as usual you are full of it. Where Obama did not vote on tax credit extensions, it wouldn't have mattered because the numbers weren't there. The most shameful failure to vote was by McCain in the most recent attempt to extend the existing credits. In that case, McCain was actually in DC, but did not supply the 60th yay vote to avoid a potential filibuster. He claimed to have to study the issue, which if true, shows that he doesn't know what's going on, and if false, puts him in direct opposition of Alternative Energy Invesment. Either way, it's an outrage.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

"People continually want to blow sunshine up our exhaust pipes by using wind power. Gentlemen, we are investors and as such we are experts in the fields of energy as compared to the average American. Let us start acting and Blogging as such."

Yes and no. Electric cars are on the way, which will allow electrical energy to be used for transport. Ultimately, Energy is Energy, no matter what form it might be in at the moment.

Also, for an excellent Peak Oil Video that just came out today, check out www.chrismartenson.com... This is MUST SEE.

As for Nuclear, check out: americansolareconomy.b... Nuclear is not a viable solution. Solar, Wind, Geothermal; these will be primary sources of replacement Energy.

IPO Analysis: GT Solar - A Unique Player in the Solar Industry

"Piper Jaffray are real analysts."


AHAHAHAAAHAHAAHAAAA!

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

CLH - We're very close to parity right now in some place, like Italy. If the Asian Economies continue to grow and to increase demand for Oil and Coal, then Grid Parity will rise, just as manufacturing costs of Solar (and Wind) are decreasing. This is not to mention Climate Change responses like Cap and Trade, etc. Emitting Carbon is going to get very expensive soon.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Sorry "to FSLR is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year?" = "to FSLR, when LDK is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year?"

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Oh, and BTW:

Under FSLR, you have the following claim:

"It is not exposed to poly pricing, because it uses cadmium telluride, which produces cheaper electricity than poly prices and will continue to until poly hits $70/kg."

If $70/kg is the parity point, then what happens to FSLR is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year? LOL!

Tellurium will get more expensive, while at the same time Silicon will be getting cheaper, and the efficiency in the use of Silicon will be increasing, not only as Silicon-based thin-film takes off (See AMAT), but as wafer-makers are cutting them thinner, and wasting less in the process.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Eli, you don't mention your positions on any of these companies.

Based on previous articles you've written, I'd gather that you're short as hell on the Industry.

As for your link to Barrons, I won't be subscribing, so I can't argue any specific points of FUD that they might be passing on. In any case, Barrons has already done a number on their credibility on Solar, since Bill Alpert completely blew it on LDK Solar.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

ART005, you are incorrect.

www.oilcrisis.com/NetE...

Investing In a Resource-Constrained World (Part V)

I have a BS in physics, and I know absolutely nothing about cold fusion. I do know quite a bit about Solar, though, and you're wrong on it.

Ok, there are a tremendous number of arguments that could be used to support Solar, and in particular, Silicon-based Solar, but I'll stick with one directly related to your article; Peak Oil.

You want to support thin films over Silicon, but that contradicts your peak-based reasoning.

Which is a stronger company in a post-peak world?

Would you bet on super-high-tech company depending on rare elements from the corners of the world, as well as incredibly specialized equipment and infrastructure for the development of their product; or would you rather support a company that uses well-known technology (silicon-based), and the second-most most abundant material in the Planet's crust (silicon) for the production of their product?

The particular Silicon-based company that I mention is LDK Solar. They're building the World's largest Polysilicon Factory in the World. They've got local supplies of raw Silicon to process. They even are buying their Ingot Crucibles from a Chinese Company right across the street, as opposed to ordering them from Europe or the US, as other companies do. Plan has LDK capable of producing 2 GW of Wafers per year after 2009 (much sooner than any cold fusion process will produce a GW). You can bet that if any company will be insulated from the problems of Peak-whatever, it's going to be LDK.

When you're talking about peak-resources, the obvious solution is to make best use of the most common of resources, as you well know by your assaults (deserved INO on FSLR for their Te dependency).