ytterbius's Comments

China Solar Safari: Hunting for Five Value Companies

Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:03:37 -0400

BryBry, you should do more research before you blindly follow Jim Cramer in his FSLR right off the road and into the ditch. FSLR is in trouble, only the same analysts that love to put sell ratings on Silicon-based technology continue to refuse to talk about the real issue for FSLR, which is their dependence on Tellurium.

The Tellurium Supply Conjecture and the Future of First Solar

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 01:54:34 -0400

Beautifully done. The argument is made with high credibility. I'll be interested in your book when it comes out.

Here's my spiel on FSLR that I wrote some time ago. Your estimation of the Te supply is surely more accurate, so that should be taken into account.

americansolareconomy.b...

CIGS: Will Technology Be Revealed Before Funding Dries Up?

Sat, 30 May 2009 02:46:44 -0400

Interesting. Thanks!

Solar Industry's Long Term Outlook

Fri, 01 May 2009 14:26:42 -0400

Excellent article!

Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking

Sun, 28 Dec 2008 23:58:56 -0500

Shortsqueeze is wrong, if you're looking to know what the effective short interest levels are, because, as mentioned, Light Peng, the CEO owns about 70% of the float. He's sold a total of 3 Million Shares since the IPO, and the rest he keeps, so yeah, there's only about 35 Million shares floating for shorts to cover with.

Two Calculated Risks Possibly Worth Taking

Sun, 28 Dec 2008 16:00:30 -0500

SHintheCity, low polysilicon prices, and corresponding decreases in Solar prices bode well for the industry and LDK in the short term. Lower prices will bring more buyers of Solar Products, along with the Stimulus that David mentioned, as well as the 30% (no cap) Investment Tax Credit that was passed by Congress in the Bailout Bill.

I say in the short term, because as things heat up in the long term, poly prices will undoubtedly start to increase again, and this is where LDK's in-house poly production will make the difference. While everybody else is trying to do business in an environment of increasing poly prices, LDK will have their own supply at decreasing prices.

Also, you should know that LDK doesn't make cells, they make wafers, and their customers do the rest. As David mentioned, LDK is sold out for the year already, and many of their contracts are at a fixed price.

Oh, and as for the crashing housing market, it's true that the homebuilders aren't building right now, and they shouldn't be. The housing glut isn't to be solved by building more houses, but a heck of alot of those workers, and the housing industry as a whole, can benefit by moving to UPGRADE some of that existing housing, in the form of value added by Solar Installation / Energy Efficiency Technology.

5 Stocks to Buy if Obama Wins

Wed, 10 Sep 2008 13:24:53 -0400

Alpha, as usual you are full of it. Where Obama did not vote on tax credit extensions, it wouldn't have mattered because the numbers weren't there. The most shameful failure to vote was by McCain in the most recent attempt to extend the existing credits. In that case, McCain was actually in DC, but did not supply the 60th yay vote to avoid a potential filibuster. He claimed to have to study the issue, which if true, shows that he doesn't know what's going on, and if false, puts him in direct opposition of Alternative Energy Invesment. Either way, it's an outrage.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

Sat, 23 Aug 2008 23:22:33 -0400

"People continually want to blow sunshine up our exhaust pipes by using wind power. Gentlemen, we are investors and as such we are experts in the fields of energy as compared to the average American. Let us start acting and Blogging as such."

Yes and no. Electric cars are on the way, which will allow electrical energy to be used for transport. Ultimately, Energy is Energy, no matter what form it might be in at the moment.

Also, for an excellent Peak Oil Video that just came out today, check out www.chrismartenson.com... This is MUST SEE.

As for Nuclear, check out: americansolareconomy.b... Nuclear is not a viable solution. Solar, Wind, Geothermal; these will be primary sources of replacement Energy.

IPO Analysis: GT Solar - A Unique Player in the Solar Industry

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 21:41:12 -0400

"Piper Jaffray are real analysts."

AHAHAHAAAHAHAAHAAAA!

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 17:52:15 -0400

CLH - We're very close to parity right now in some place, like Italy. If the Asian Economies continue to grow and to increase demand for Oil and Coal, then Grid Parity will rise, just as manufacturing costs of Solar (and Wind) are decreasing. This is not to mention Climate Change responses like Cap and Trade, etc. Emitting Carbon is going to get very expensive soon.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:58:25 -0400

Sorry "to FSLR is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year?" = "to FSLR, when LDK is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year?"

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:57:41 -0400

Oh, and BTW:

Under FSLR, you have the following claim:

"It is not exposed to poly pricing, because it uses cadmium telluride, which produces cheaper electricity than poly prices and will continue to until poly hits $70/kg."

If $70/kg is the parity point, then what happens to FSLR is producing their own poly at $35/kg next year? LOL!

Tellurium will get more expensive, while at the same time Silicon will be getting cheaper, and the efficiency in the use of Silicon will be increasing, not only as Silicon-based thin-film takes off (See AMAT), but as wafer-makers are cutting them thinner, and wasting less in the process.

Solar's Warm, But Not Hot - Barron's

Sun, 20 Jul 2008 15:41:19 -0400

Eli, you don't mention your positions on any of these companies.

Based on previous articles you've written, I'd gather that you're short as hell on the Industry.

As for your link to Barrons, I won't be subscribing, so I can't argue any specific points of FUD that they might be passing on. In any case, Barrons has already done a number on their credibility on Solar, since Bill Alpert completely blew it on LDK Solar.

LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity?

Sun, 06 Jul 2008 19:11:03 -0400

ART005, you are incorrect.

www.oilcrisis.com/NetE...

Investing In a Resource-Constrained World (Part V)

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 01:24:14 -0400

I have a BS in physics, and I know absolutely nothing about cold fusion. I do know quite a bit about Solar, though, and you're wrong on it.

Ok, there are a tremendous number of arguments that could be used to support Solar, and in particular, Silicon-based Solar, but I'll stick with one directly related to your article; Peak Oil.

You want to support thin films over Silicon, but that contradicts your peak-based reasoning.

Which is a stronger company in a post-peak world?

Would you bet on super-high-tech company depending on rare elements from the corners of the world, as well as incredibly specialized equipment and infrastructure for the development of their product; or would you rather support a company that uses well-known technology (silicon-based), and the second-most most abundant material in the Planet's crust (silicon) for the production of their product?

The particular Silicon-based company that I mention is LDK Solar. They're building the World's largest Polysilicon Factory in the World. They've got local supplies of raw Silicon to process. They even are buying their Ingot Crucibles from a Chinese Company right across the street, as opposed to ordering them from Europe or the US, as other companies do. Plan has LDK capable of producing 2 GW of Wafers per year after 2009 (much sooner than any cold fusion process will produce a GW). You can bet that if any company will be insulated from the problems of Peak-whatever, it's going to be LDK.

When you're talking about peak-resources, the obvious solution is to make best use of the most common of resources, as you well know by your assaults (deserved INO on FSLR for their Te dependency).

Semiconductors: Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full?

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 22:00:42 -0400

"pretty much the same business model as LDK - except with great analyst support"

LOL! It may be a similar business model, but it's not half the business, and it costs just as much. Their margins are much worse, and their future vision and potential doesn't touch that of Light Peng and LDK.

As for analyst support for LDK, it really depends on which analyst you're following. Needham and UBS have targets will above the current price. Are they fools? Who are you following, and what rationale are they using that suggests to you that they are right about this company?

Asensio Still Skeptical About LDK Solar

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 04:02:37 -0500

Gutowski is Asensio's tool, and neither have any credibility when it comes to LDK. While they whine about irrelevancies, LDK continues to move forward in achieving their plan. LDK is in great shape; in the end, they're untouchable by these crooks.

Solar Energy IPO: ReneSola Competes With LDK Solar

Sun, 27 Jan 2008 15:47:35 -0500

These guys don't look like a good bet to me. They're late to the game, and they don't appear to be planning on a scale to put them in competition with LDK.

LDK Solar: The Naked Shorting Crime

Sat, 29 Dec 2007 01:28:54 -0500

Well, Fates, let's see about getting some disclosure on who actually did all of that shorting between 10/3 and 10/15. Then we'll know if everything is on the up and up.

LDK Solar: The Naked Shorting Crime

Mon, 24 Dec 2007 13:48:06 -0500

Shoe, it's interesting that you would link to Asensio. This is a guy that won't even let you read his content unless you agree to his very rigid terms of service, which states, among other things:

c.) PROTECTED OPINION
asensio.com reports contain opinions and contain no statements of fact. All of the statements published by asensio.com constitute written opinions and are not provided to assist any individual or entity in making any investment decision.

Asensio is on the wrong side of this one, and looks to be trying to avoid a squeeze.

LDK Solar: The Naked Shorting Crime

Mon, 24 Dec 2007 13:34:41 -0500

User, the act of Naked Shorting is demonstrably real. The SEC discusses it at the provided link, and others have gone into greater detail.

You say that "real investors base their decisions off the facts," which is something I would agree with. Really, all that this article is requesting (it was originally written as a letter) is for the facts of the number of "fails" to be provided to the investor by the DTCC. Without this information, the dilution of the stock is unknown, and the investor is lacking knowledge on a crucial component of the supply/demand equation. Help us out; write to the SEC and your Congresspeople.

LDK Solar: Give Us the Facts

Thu, 13 Dec 2007 01:38:48 -0500

Referencing Asensio does little to lend credibility to your post.

"LDK has no polysilicon production capacity. LDK has never produced polysilicon or any other chemical product. Polysilicon has been produced in commercial quantities since the 1950s."

How is this relevant, or enlightening? Hasn't he read the news? The plant is central to the whole business plan, and from most accounts is being managed very well. The first stage is complete, and Fluor is on-site preparing for their role. In addition, Mr. Peng has struck a genius deal with Sunways AG for delivery of two very expensive and long lead-time Siemans Reactors (well before they could have had delivery otherwise), as well as additional Reactors and equipment from GT Solar. On staff are Nicola Sarno, and Pietro Rossetto, two italians with 40+ combined years of high level experience at MEMC.

Does Asensio have direct knowledge of polysilicon production processes by which to suggest that LDK is not up to the task as planned? It seems that I've not seen any such experience in any bios of Asensio that I've read.

Why is LDK Solar Constantly Beaten Down?

Mon, 05 Nov 2007 01:36:44 -0500

1: Thank you for your vote of confidence.

2: We can expand the conversation as far as you'd like. I agree that there will be winners and losers. I also like the technology coming from thin-film companies like FSLR and ASTI, as well as the potential from companies like Nanosolar. However, Silicon should not be written off as done. Yes, there is tremendous growth in the supply of Silicon, and with it will come decreased margins from Silicon Manufacturers, but LDK stands ready to compete amongst the leaders even as the market evolves. Their niche is a powerful one, is fundamentally efficient, and is developing to a leadership-level scale. They are adding value to their Silicon by turning it into wafers and selling it to the Chinese Cell manufacturers. This is a powerful clientelle in the Solar industry, as they are primary suppliers of these products to Europe, and will have very significant marketshare on the growing US market. As it stands, FSLR and ASTI are nowhere near developing on the kind of scale that will be required to beat cheap chinese silicon-based panels on the World market in the near term.

As for American recession, the best thing we could do in this country would be to get on the alt-energy bandwagon, as these new industries will provide new jobs to replace those disappearing from other ailing industries. Access to energy is at the core of economic activity, and America stands to benefit or suffer greatly depending on its choices in future energy investment.

2?: You seem to want proof that there is some kind of conspiracy going after LDK, yet you seem to expect that it should be taken for granted that these chinese companies and their contracts are of no value as an indication of the future prospects of this company. A week or two ago TJ Rogers (of Cyprus Semiconductor) was on CNBC and when asked about the success of their "chip" (wafer) business due to solar, he made the claim that "Demand is Infinite." Demand is sky-high and there are no signs that it is letting up. As long as LDK's clients can continue to sell panels, you can bet that they won't be breaking any contracts that they have with LDK.

3: Yes, the Chinese are learning that the environmental impact of their industrialization has a real cost to their economy and industry. It's hard to make clean food when the fields and the water is poisoned. They will struggle with these problems over many years. On the other hand, Solar energy is an environmental plus over the long run, as well as a strategic asset, which explains why LDK is so well supported by that Government. It's laughable that you would try to compare the value of LDK with chinese food exporters which have recently undergone scandal. Should FSLR be made to suffer because both it and Enron are (were) American companies?

4: Enron was a heck of alot better at depriving people of energy, than they were at providing energy. They were scoundrels and cheats. Their collapse has nothing to do with LDK whatsoever.

Finally, you say "There is much more at stake here than just LDK. The entire investment world was waiting to see how long it would be before a Chinese based US listed company, would be accused of fraud etc," and I think that's a key point here.

They were waiting for scandal, and when it came, some hedgies jumped in with both feet. The scheme doesn't work if they aren't committed and disciplined. They sold like mad, and there was no uptick rule to keep them sane, and now they're stuck because LDK is a prize company out of China, and has powerful support (in addition to superior performance). All they have to do is to make sure that the laws and regulations are followed as written and the hedgies are going to have to back off and pay for their mistake.

Why is LDK Solar Constantly Beaten Down?

Sat, 03 Nov 2007 02:27:46 -0400

Alpha, in your research have you seen any kind of analysis from any of these mainstream sources that actually discuss the technical issues surrounding the recycling of silicon scraps? No? Are we expected to make investing decisions on a technology company without any discussion of the technical details of that company's process and business plans? Apparently.

We know that Situ claimed that scrap should be written off that was over 180 days old, but this is ludicrous on its face. Age of the material has nothing to do with whether LDK's stockpile has value. Several possibilities exist, one of which, obviously, is that LDK plans to recycle presently unusable material back into silicon suitable for use in solar panels (they've said as much). Here is a link which lists several companies involved in the recycling of silicon ( www.enf.cn/magazine/is... ), and here's a link that describes the increasing value of silicon scrap material ( www.marketwatch.com/Ne... ). We know that recycling is technologically feasable, we just don't know the details and efficiencies as they pertain to LDK. We don't know this, and the mainstream media isn't asking the questions.

Example: If LDK buys scrap at, say, $150 / kg, they break even if they can recover material at around a 43% efficiency in a market where virgin material is now worth $350+ / kg. Of course, we're not just talking monetary value here. To a Solar Wafer Manufacturer, Silicon is everything, because they are busy adding value to it by converting it into wafers.

Now, we don't know the details, but it's certainly plausable that this stored material has a value to LDK greater than zero (as Situ would have it). It's already been mined for immediately useful Silicon, from which LDK is generating enormous profits, but it still contains high concentrations of Silicon. In fact, we know that LDK has been stocking this stuff up since the beginning, even when the price of scrap was much lower than it is today, and so any recycleable Silicon has actually increased in value since the original purchase.

One item of note is that though Mr. Peng, the CEO, may not be a Silicon expert, he has hired Nicola Sarno and Pietro Rossetto, two Italians with a combined experience of over 40 years at MEMC (Senior Vice President - Manufacturing and Plant Manager, and Chief Engineer respectively).

Another important note involves their planned polysilicon plant, for which the ground has been broken, and contracts have been signed with Fluor, Sunways, and GT Solar. All three of these companies are completely independent of LDK (two American, one German), and all three are highly respected. LDK is poised to be a leader not only in the efficient use of scrap silicon, but also in the production of virgin polysilicon, and it's not just that they are making claims, they have taken action toward this goal with credible partners.

As for Situ, you ask why would he incur the wrath and risk his entire career for "some personal problem"? Ok, fair enough; we don't know. I ask, however, why you don't believe every statement to the contrary from the company and even its customers (both LDK team and customers are international in scope). Situ is a single accountant who, when tasked with accounting properly for materials in a complex technological setting went to the CFO and told him that he had to write off their silicon because it was too old. Honestly, it sounds like Situ was incompetent. When Lai (the CFO) then told Situ to do "careful data analysis" Situ proceeded to leave town, get hidden, and start to send out private company data not only to authorities, regulators, and IPO insiders, but also to the financial press in what was certainly an attack on the company's stock price.

I don't think my comment is "less than center," so I'm going to take the following liberty.

In your comment you mention Enron. Well, I'd say that is less than center, so I'm going to indulge in a similar emotional reference.

John Galt.

"Who is John Galt" you ask?

Galt is an industrialist, of course.

The CEO of LDK appears to have the industrialist drive (see online.wsj.com/article... ). Ok, so he doesn't have a PR department, but he's got 3000+ people working their butts off to build a business that not only makes money, but provides a rapidly growing amount of product that is critical to the world economy; energy. He doesn't have to have a vast staff of salespeople to sell his products to hesitant buyers; he's got customers that come to LDK because they need what LDK has got to sell, and the price is right.

We'll see what happens in the end, of course. We're all betting on our own expected outcomes, and we'll win or lose depending on whether we're right or wrong.

x-posted for future reference to americansolareconomy.b.../

Why is LDK Solar Constantly Beaten Down?

Fri, 02 Nov 2007 19:35:02 -0400

Well, we're just going to have to wait until the company releases the facts. They've hired a top notch Wall Street legal firm to keep their detractors in line (as in, acting legally), and they're having an initial audit verified by a "big 4" company.

You may be right to suggest that knowing "for sure" that there has been improper manipulation going on from Wall Street against LDK is a stretch, but if you've been watching this whole drama play out, then you should be able to recognize that it is not unreasonable to come to the conclusion that there is something fishy going on in terms of anti-LDK sentiment. Just look at the volume over this event, and you'll see that they were under very aggressive attack from somewhere, and then remember that this is all based on a single former employee (an employee who thought that it would make sense to go to the CFO and tell him that they needed to write off a large amount of stock because it was "over 180 days old."*)

So, Seeking Alpha is posting quite a few articles supportive of LDK. What's wrong with that? For one thing, they're probably getting hits, and if you're a capitalist you won't have a problem with that. For another thing, it seems to be the case that of the writing going on around LDK, the majority of non-mainstream sources are in the court of LDK. At the very least it seems quite reasonable to suggest that the current price properly reflects this accounting issue, and that LDK is at a good level to buy.

*The issue is nowhere near so simple as to say that 250 tons of silicon are no good and needs to be written off. Lai (the CFO) told Situ in the recording that Situ needed to do detailed data analysis on the situation, which is a perfectly reasonable order for the CFO to give, especially when he's just been told that the stock needs to be written off because it's too old (which makes no sense at all when talking about silicon).

Why is LDK Solar Constantly Beaten Down?

Fri, 02 Nov 2007 19:35:00 -0400

Can LDK Solar Deliver As Promised?

Mon, 15 Oct 2007 22:24:51 -0400

You may be skeptical of LDK's future in polysilican, and you are surely right that there will be challenges ahead, but it certainly looks like they are hell-bent on giving it a solid effort, and have been making some smart moves.

Two big moves include:

The Sunways Deal:

money.cnn.com/news/new...

"LDK Solar will deliver approximately 1 GW of multicrystalline solar wafers to Sunways over a ten-year period starting in 2008. Under the terms of the equipment purchase agreement, LDK Solar will purchase two readily available Siemens technology-based reactors and related plant equipment from Sunways."

and the Fluor deal:

www.reuters.com/articl...

"U.S. engineering and construction company Fluor Corp said on Friday it won a contract worth more than $1 billion to provide engineering, design and other services for a polysilicon plant for LDK Solar Co Ltd"

Also note that they are not devoid of experience in this area with Nicola Sarno and Pietro Rossetto, each with over 20 years of experience at MEMC under their belt (see www.ldksolar.com/Manag... ).

So, right now there's no telling exactly what they are going to put out in their audit (I'm betting on good news), but moving forward I see some reason to believe that they will make themselves into a big player in the polysilicon market.

Cramer Pleads for a Fed Rescue as Bear Stearns Hit

Tue, 07 Aug 2007 00:52:59 -0400

WOW, I think he forgot for a moment that he was on TV, and not in a closed room with his buddies.

As for people losing their jobs way up in the heights, I'm all for it. They've made bad decisions, decisions which put all of us at risk, and the last thing we need is for the fed to bail them out with more easy money. What's needed now is for some responsibility to be taken, some heads to roll, and some new minds to be put in place to start making some new value decisions in this market.

Economically Viable Alternative Energy: Nova Biosource

Mon, 30 Jul 2007 19:17:53 -0400

I'm sorry, I misread the above... I'd wonder why alpha24seven suggests that algae is not looking bright. I've not heard any issues.

Economically Viable Alternative Energy: Nova Biosource

Mon, 30 Jul 2007 19:16:51 -0400

As the above poster mentioned, algae is possibly a big part of the solution to feedstock supply for bio-diesel.

Check out "Solazyme." They are a biotech producing algae-based oil for Imperium Renewables.