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zincbemi

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  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +3.8%) move higher after CEO/founder Elon Musk tweets that he will be making an announcement on Thursday about putting his money where his mouth is. One idea being floating around is that Musk will fire up a secondary offering of which he takes a big chunk and uses the proceeds to pay back the automaker's outstanding DOE loan. [View news story]
    It is obvious that Mr. Musk is an effective showman who has taken current technology and produced an effective and attractive vehicle.

    Based on a model of the company that I developed I believed he would not break-even in Q1 and he would need financing before mid year to begin procuring tooling for the Model X

    His business model is very expensive (installs and owns dealerships and charging stations) and it will take more that 20,000 Model S vehicles to fund future plans. Now that he has announced he is paying down the government loans early he has had to delay the Model X until late 2014 and cut some development cost. Therefore, I believe he will commit to another round of financing. This may allow him to replace the government funding with commercial lending of other bonds

    My opinion is he will try and soften this with an "I believe in my company" investment of some significant magnitude. However, the underlying theme here is that it will take significant additional investment to bring out the Model X and the"Bluestar" I wish him and the investors well (I am not short or long on the company)
    Mar 25, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Ultimate Disrupter [View article]
    I believe that even unplugged the battery will self discharge at about 5% to 10% per month. While I don't know if this solves the 'bricking" it does lead me to believe that it may still be a real possibility. I guess we shall see as more are produced and sold
    Mar 7, 2013. 06:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sharpen your pencils Tesla Motors (TSLA) traders: In his interview with Bloomberg TV (previous) Elon Musk gives some off-the-cuff sales guidance, saying he sees an environment where the EV firm sells 10K-12K units per year in Europe and Asia on top of 10K-15K units in North America. (video[View news story]
    Hold on to your hats
    Feb 27, 2013. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNBC automobile industry reporter Phil LeBeau acknowledges unanswered questions on the ability of the Tesla Motors (TSLA -1.4%) Model S to ever be a mass market vehicles exist, but comes back from a test drive thoroughly impressed by the car and sees the possibility of it being a game changer. LeBeau on the Model S: "I am convinced that this car is proof a solely electric car can and ultimately will gain acceptance by American drivers." [View news story]
    There is no doubt that Tesla has a product superior to any other EV on the market. However, I'm not sure that guarantees them the volume needed to succeed or the cash they will need to introduce new models like the Model X or the Bluestar. The automotive business is capital intense and breaking even in 2013 does not generate enough cash to pay for the Model X tooling or the Bluestar development and tooling. Additional rounds of financing will be required

    Also, based on their 10Q reports for Q2 and Q3, they only had 11,500 and 13,200 reservations respectively. Once they started production in Q2 they only picked up about 1,700 reservations until the end of Q3. At 400 per week that is only about a month of production for 3 moths of order taking. Not enough to fill their Q4 and 2013 production schedule. Orders will be the critical issue driving the company and that should be the focus for investors. Without adequate demand the company cannot survive.
    Feb 20, 2013. 06:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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