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Clifford Neely October Consultants, Inc. PO Box 59208 Potomac, MD 20859 301 738 3321 Career 1988 to present: Principal, October Consultants, Inc. October Consultants conducts economic analysis and market research for clients in the floor coverings and chemical industries. 1976 to 1988:... More
  • The Workingman's Party

    Senator elect Bill Cassidy says that the people of Louisiana voted for him because the Republican Party is the Party of the Workingman.

    The new Senator from Louisiana is on the money with his post 2014 election analysis. The Republican Party has made job creation its primary issue. Ever since President Clinton embraced a strong dollar policy, Democrats have been so enamored with importing low cost foreign goods into the country and dictating burdensome global warming laws that they have given little heed to the drag these actions are having on the incomes of workingmen and women.

    The first hint that blue-collar workers were bringing a sea change to the fortunes of the Republican Party was that Red states picked up a net of 9 electoral votes in the 2010 Census.

    Republican governors between 2000 and 2010 were creating jobs by cutting taxes and weakening or eliminating onerous environmental regulations. Workers migrated to these states because that's where the jobs were. Texas gained a staggering 4 electoral votes, Florida 2, and Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah each gained 1 electoral vote. Losers for the most part, were the industrialized northern states.

    Net immigration into the six red states for the decade was 13.3 million human beings with Hispanics accounting for 54% of the total. Anyone thinking this influx of new voters would be a bonanza for Democrat candidates in the 2012 election was disappointed. The fact that five of the six states in 2012 gave Romney a higher percentage of the vote than they gave McCain four years earlier says that the new workers may have actually increased the share of Republican votes cast. Census data say that creating jobs may be the best way for the GOP to win the Hispanic vote.

    Republican control of state legislatures has been increasing steadily, as well. In 2015, in addition to 31 governorships, the GOP will control more state legislative chambers than it has since 1928. In the election last November, Republicans won 66 of the 96 state legislative chambers that were up for grabs.

    Anyone who still doesn't believe that the GOP is now the party of the workingman need only study West Virginia's voting record in the last two elections where jobs for coal miners was the first plank in the GOP's platform. In the recent senate election, Republican Shelley Moore Capito, like Mitt Romney in 2012, carried every one of West Virginia's 55 counties. When Chris Wallace, on his Sunday morning TV show, asked the Senator elect how she planned to expand coal production in her state, she replied, "Aggressively".

    In the name of free trade and cleaner air, the US has swapped $50,000/yr jobs in steel plants for hamburger flipping jobs and $60,000/yr jobs in coal mining for unemployment checks. It's no wonder incomes for US workers are not growing. Real weekly incomes for US workers, in the third quarter of this year were $350, exactly where they were in the first quarter of 1979. This is a national disgrace.

    To create the millions of new jobs the economy must have, the GOP will have to think big and spend big. It has to take steps that insure that more of the goods we consume are made here. Every kind of investment that will make the US a better country should be on the table.

    Low cost energy is where the need is greatest and where payback will be most rewarding. Building a new green fields industry to convert coal to gasoline and other liquid fuels has to be the next administration's top priority since collateral benefits are so valuable. The Grand Old Party has to convince American workers that a dollar earned in this country stays here and is spent here many times. A dollar leaving the country to buy goods made somewhere else in the world is lost to them and their children.

    Dec 18 2:43 PM | Link | Comment!
  • West Virginia Senate Race Is A Portent

    Shelley Moore Capito's run for the Senate seat from West Virginia is about more than giving Republicans an additional seat in the senate. It is even more than a dress rehearsal for the presidential election of 2016. It is the blueprint for Republican hegemony over the decades required to restore the nation.

    Shelley has big plans for coal and has no fear of the environmental lobby. West Virginians like the fact that increasing coal production is her top priority. Mitt Romney carried all 55 West Virginia counties in 2012. Don't be surprised if Shelley matches Mitt's victory margin in November.

    Coal means jobs for West Virginians, lots of high paying jobs (mine foremen can make $120,000 a year).

    Here is the real meaning of the 2014 West Virginia senate race: Shelley's stump speech will work in every state. All states need jobs and they all need lower cost energy.

    President Obama's energy policy aimed at "making electricity rates skyrocket" has become a vote changer in every county in the nation.

    Coal means that real median family incomes can start growing again and that the nation can pay down debt owed to other countries. Coal means that a lasting economic expansion can begin.

    Finally, coal means that the US no longer imports oil from countries that fund our enemies. Coal is our new military. It puts us in a 21st century economic war against terrorism that we will win.

    Jun 19 9:58 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Red States Are Getting Redder As Labor Seeks Its Most Profitable Use

    Six states in the south and southwest, that arguably can be considered Red states, picked up a total of 10 electoral votes from the 2010 Census. Each electoral vote represents a new representative to the House and an additional vote for President in the Electoral College. Texas picked up an eye-popping 4 electors and Florida gained 2 electors in the 2010 Census. Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Utah each gained one electoral vote. The only red state to lose an elector was Louisiana.

    The inability to create jobs in this Great Recession is having a bigger impact on economic and political power structures in the 50 states than many realize. The northern industrial states are losing both people and political power as corporations, and people who work for corporations, migrate to business friendly states in the south and southwest.

    Thus, conservatives start the 2016 presidential election perhaps 9 electoral votes better off than they were in 2008. The extra 9 electoral votes didn't matter in the 2012 election since President Obama enjoyed a sizeable lead over Mr. Romney. In tighter elections, 9 votes could be a big deal. They represent a 3% head start toward the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

    Census data indicate that these six states had a total increase in population of 13 million between 2000 and 2012 with Hispanics accounting for about half the total increase. One might conclude that the influx of new workers, half of them Hispanic, would weaken the conservative vote in these states; but the opposite seems to be the case. Mitt Romney in 2012 received a higher percentage of the popular vote in five of the six states than John McCain did in 2008. Only in South Carolina did Mr. McCain garner a higher percentage (55.4% to 54.6%) of the total votes cast than Mr. Romney.

    Business friendly states in the South and Southwest have been gaining population considerably faster than the northern industrial states for some time; but the dispersion from the rust belt states to the south seems to have intensified between 2000 and 2010. The Great Recession has placed even more importance on efficient utilization of labor resources. In a word, manufacturers are moving to states where costs are low and families are moving where the jobs are. Like other resources, labor seeks its most profitable use. New factories are being built in states where corporate taxes are low and right to work laws are on the books.

    Governor Rick Perry's taunting ads asking businesses located in Maryland to "come on down" to a new home in Texas are more than jibes at Maryland governor Martin O'Malley. The 2010 Census and historical trends say Mr. Perry's ads stand a good chance of getting takers.

    The Red Shift

     
            

    state

    new

    Pop.

    increase

    percent

    McCain

    Romney

     
     

    electors

    gain

    Hispanics

    Hispanics

    vote

    vote

     
      

    00-12

    00-12

    to all

    2008

    2012

     
      

    (million)

    (million)

        
            

    Texas

    4

    5.21

    3.29

    63.1%

    55.5%

    57.2%

     

    Arizona

    1

    1.42

    0.68

    48.1%

    53.7%

    54.2%

     

    Georgia

    1

    1.73

    0.48

    27.6%

    52.2%

    53.4%

     

    S. Carolina

    1

    0.71

    0.16

    21.8%

    55.4%

    54.6%

     

    Utah

    1

    0.62

    0.18

    28.7%

    62.6%

    72.8%

     

    Florida

    2

    3.34

    1.80

    54.0%

    48.2%

    49.1%

     
            

    total

    10

    13.03

    6.58

    50.5%

       
            

    Source: Politico, Census Bureau, October Consultants

       
    Sep 20 5:07 PM | Link | Comment!
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