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imjdv

imjdv
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  • Power REIT Lawsuit In-Depth Analysis: Mineral/Oil Rights Issue [View article]
    I appreciate the author's postings, particularly with respect to the apparent material miss in Konrad's earlier articles. However, I am also very curious about SCLR's timing and potential motivation. He apparently has done (and continues to do) a lot of work on this stock. After deciding not to go long...and if SCLR is not (or can't) go short....why bother continuing to beat an alleged dead horse? To appear out of nowhere and post on PW alone is also a little odd. Perhaps, in addition to continuing to inform of his views on thousands of pages of documents spanning >50 years, the author could also provide a statement that unequivocally removes the potential concern that he is somehow (directly or even remotely) affiliated in some manner with the lessees and/or their respective counsel?
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Clean Energy Stocks For 2014: September Update And Thoughts On The Finavera Deal [View article]
    Thanks for the article. Regarding PW, please explain/elaborate on your statement that: "Any resolution, even one in favor of the lessees, is likely to be good news for Power REIT's shareholders." I am struggling to appreciate how a resolution "in favor of the lessees" could possibly (let alone "likely") be considered good news for PW shareholders (in light of the current stock price, which very likely includes some discounted value of a near to medium term potential judgement/settlement in favor of PW).
    Sep 9, 2014. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Seaboard's Earnings [View article]
    Aren't most industry participants/experts attributing rising domestic pork prices to PEDV (virus infecting/killing baby pigs across the country with an associated drop in supply).....and NOT to exports by Smithfield as stated in this article?
    Aug 6, 2014. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exchange Traded Debt: An Analysis [View article]
    Clueless.
    Mar 11, 2014. 09:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duke Energy: This 6% Yielding Security Is Worth A Look [View article]
    For Corsair II - I'd agree with your view if it was a put/call in 2018. However, since its a call only, the issuer will likely not exercise if the cost of refinancing is higher than the coupon (i.e. if comparable maturity Treasury yields + Prevailing issuer sub debt credit spread is greater than 5.125% coupon). In this instance, you'd still own the bond and its secondary market price could be at a huge discount to par. For example, if the long end of the Treasury curve returns to more normal/higher levels: let's' say (for example) the new market rate of interest for this issuer's 55 year (maturing in ' 73) junior subordinated debt in 2018 is 10%. In this instance, the bond (which would likely NOT be called) will be trading around $14 (roughly 57% or less of the $25 face/par). Of course, things might not turn out this way, but if (more likely WHEN) the Fed loses control of rates, I'd prefer not to be short this option. Hope this helps to better explain my view on this one. Also, bonds like these are typically placed largely with retail investors for one reason only.....most retail investors under value (or simply don't think about) the risk associated with the call in a higher interest rate environment.
    Sep 17, 2013. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Duke Energy: This 6% Yielding Security Is Worth A Look [View article]
    6%ish yield on this credit does not look that great to me after adjusting for the significant value of the post 2018 call option.
    Sep 16, 2013. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Sorry for the delayed response, but this corporate structure/business plan (i.e. hedge fund operating under the umbrella of an offshore reinsurance company) is likely much more about taxes than it is about "float."
    May 15, 2013. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re's CEO Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Great Chairman and CFO. I can't understand why Einhorn does not replace/upgrade the most senior manager/management responsible for the continued underperformance of the underwriting side of the business.
    May 7, 2013. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re Is An Undervalued, Fast-Growing Reinsurer [View article]
    Valuing GLRE like other reinsurance companies is a mistake. GLRE is a hedge fund (wolf) that enjoys the favorable tax treatment available to it as a (legitimate) offshore reinsurance company (sheeps clothing). Einhorn is a very good investor and this vehicle provides both retail and instituitional investors relatively cheap and very liquid access to his hedge fund. I like the company and would love it if the underwriting leadership was improved.
    Feb 12, 2013. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Consolidated Tomoka's Missing Value [View article]
    Not disagreeing that there is interesting/potential value here over the long term. However, it could take the company decades to fully realize the potential value of the currently more remote (and presently less marketable) land. The author made NO effort to recognize the impact of the time value of money on the real value of future sales. For example, if the company sells its last acre of land (30 years from now) for $50k (if the author can use stupid numbers to make a simple point, so can I) the Present Value of that sale (not accounting for taxes and other expenses incurred in the mean time) is only about $2,900 (at a 10% discount rate). Perhaps a concept as simple as the time value of money (combined with market risk, etc.) is part of the reason that (per the author's original article) the company's own estimate of it current land value is less than 1/3 of the author's. Again, I'm not arguing with very basic idea that there might be some potential long term value here....but the flawed pricing/analysis clearly needed to be pointed out.
    Jan 4, 2013. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finding Consolidated Tomoka's Missing Value [View article]
    Interesting article/analysis, but the $30k per acre part of the analysis is ridiculous. The historic average of the company's sales (of generally the MOST marketable/valuable properties in its portfolio) is not a good proxy for the value of the as yet unsold land. Appreciate you shining a light on this one for another look though.
    Jan 1, 2013. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Revival: The Ship Has Sailed [View article]
    Any serious analyisis (or analyst) would at least mention the value of Nokia's patent portfolio.
    Dec 16, 2012. 09:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does Fairfax's Prem Watsa See In SandRidge Energy's Management? [View article]
    Buffet is awesome. Does anyone remember the Silver market trades in 1997/1998 and the GenRe/AIG transaction? Neither do I.
    Dec 10, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A High Yield Bond For A Housing Recovery [View article]
    Don't know the credit, but probably NOT a great idea at this price. Believers in housing recovery should seek better risk adjusted returns in equity (with real upside) or SECURED debt (with more limited downside). Buying an unsecured B rated bond at a huge (17 point) premium to par leaves little room for upside and exacerbates the potential downside (i.e. loss severity on default will likely be more brutal). Better/safer ways to earn 4.7% p.a..
    Dec 7, 2012. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenlight Capital Re's CEO Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Great company/investment vehicle. Unfortunate that the liability guys do not appear to be as good as the asset management guys. Maybe Einhorn should fix this....starting at the top of the organization. It is frustrating to have great investment results muted by stupid risk/underwriting decisions.
    Nov 2, 2012. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
48 Comments
27 Likes