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Freekizh

Freekizh
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  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: Valuation Dependent On Pipeline [View article]
    Tom, I find this business as mysterious as the volatile movie business which relies on big hits, and so is difficult to hold unless it has a broader portfolio. So I am surprised you didnt include Novartis in your comp as it generally has a higher beta, and I quite like its generic business as well a hedge for the portfolio.
    Jul 3, 2013. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Addition To The Wall Street Bestiary [View instapost]
    Tom you need to own up to your hog hunting, smoking and drinking habits - we will accept you for who you are, unintended seeking alpha consequences and all :)
    Jun 26, 2013. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exide's Recent Price Collapse Was Unjustified [View article]
    Another possibility is that shorts will cover to avoid weird stuff - I am not sure what the benefit of holding onto your short position is in this situation since the stock has lost 95% of its YTD value. It would depend on your brokerage's rules on short positions of bankrupt stocks.
    Jun 18, 2013. 09:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementing A Synthetic Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Tom, I would be interested in your views on the insurance industry, especially with respect to changing interest rate conditions.
    Jun 18, 2013. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementing A Synthetic Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    +1

    Tom is your 0.8 beta screen related to where you think we are in the cycle, or is it specific to your options strategy? Any strategy With plenty of dry powder right now makes sense.
    Jun 17, 2013. 03:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exide's Recent Price Collapse Was Unjustified [View article]
    Not sure where you are getting solid profits from? Book value has been declining steadily for last 18 months. Depreciation expenses declined steadily while they had to invest truck loads of cash on capex with zero financing headroom - does that make any sense? I very much doubt the the market value of their older factories and equipment have any value. If they sell a factory and realize book value, I will say I am wrong. This was clearly their only choice - to take debt holders for a ride. With OEM parts rationalization becoming the norm and therefore rising standards (i.e., costs) and declining margins, it wasn't looking pretty. They probably hit a technical covenant default, and then said ok lets go.
    Jun 11, 2013. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exide's Recent Price Collapse Was Unjustified [View article]
    This stock was always high risk junk. If you didn't see this coming a mile away you should stop giving investment views. Bad investors always underestimate the risk of debt, and overestimate equity upside.
    Jun 10, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market Safe At Current Levels?  [View instapost]
    Tom, I had similar conceptual problems a few months ago as you regarding whether you could correlate market participation with "market level". That's why the return characteristics of your model output need to be analyzed. I especially agree with your last paragraph - to stay vested most of the time, especially clear if you look at nominal values, unless something tells you very explicitly to get out.
    Feb 9, 2013. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market Safe At Current Levels?  [View instapost]
    Tom, your articles are very thought provoking and practitioner orientated! I follow you and somehow missed this article. Just spent the last hour running your numbers on Market Levels, and got stuck replicating them.

    Then I realized you must be using nominal GDP instead of real GDP: was expecting to write a critique on you using RGDP, but shame on me instead :) This is a nice long-term line to consider, and am still analyzing the basic idea.

    Initially I think it will provide a good BUY signal, but maybe not a timely sell signal on its own because inherently you are relying on low frequency economic data unless you are willing to sit out of the market for long periods of time. Also GDP is not trade-able, so you cannot arb the conditions explicitly according to that ratio. The return characteristics within each market level need to be better understood since you have a classic non-linear "smile" there, making the strategies from this signal a little more complicated.
    Feb 9, 2013. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks [View article]
    Thanks for taking the time for the in-depth reply. I don't think you need to constrain the spread to the market spread if its generating an implied view from your storage forecasts (unless you are "fitting" market values) - that was the interesting bit.

    I will follow your model on the blog. The reason I asked about the fit, because you use terms like "neutral" and "fair value" so I was curious about whether you were using some risk-neutral pricing method, but looks like some custom historic curve-fitting calibration method.
    Jan 30, 2013. 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas EIA Storage Projections And Fundamental Discussion For Next 5 Weeks [View article]
    Good "basic research" article. Two points: is your model drawing an implied calendar spread from these forecasts (spread of $0.21 for the next 5 weeks). Second, can you clarify how you "weight" the fundamental model based on fit?
    Jan 29, 2013. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Send Warning [View article]
    That's right you're done.
    Jan 29, 2013. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Send Warning [View article]
    Stop beating around the bush and give me an independent link or study. I'll apologize to you if I'm wrong if you can provide even a respectable single link, otherwise stop misleading people with your trash talk.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Send Warning [View article]
    This is where you are such a layman and you don't even know it.

    So gold has been dropping from $1700 to $1650 in the last 6 weeks, and the market is making new highs therefore you conclude that if gold goes down the market goes down? Ok - why don't you do this, given me links to ANY research that consistently shows that when gold goes down that the market also goes down. I'm calling you out for your trash talk.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets Send Warning [View article]
    Opinion not based on facts or any empirical evidence is trash talk. You're still in grade school pal.
    Jan 29, 2013. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
182 Comments
74 Likes