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  • UGAZ/DGAZ: Natural Gas Is Now Below $4.00 For The First Time Since January So Now What? [View instapost]
    I agree with RE - bulls will be active to keep it floating until injection report this Thursday.

    look for higher volume in DGAZ as positions are taken to hedge.

    limited upside potential at this point.
    Jul 21 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UGAZ/DGAZ: Natural Gas Is Now Below $4.00 For The First Time Since January So Now What? [View instapost]
    I more or less agree with RE here. However, a few things to throw in that probably don't amount to anything -- but possibly some anecdotal 'evidence' ....

    Being from NE central Pa. and still having many family and friends there - most of them farmers and land owners, I am familiar with the past 5 years or so of drilling that has gone on in the region.

    there are lots - and by lots I mean a sh!t ton of natural gas wells tat have been drilled up there....but here's the thing:

    most of the farmers / landowners that I know (and I mean personally, not 'friend of a friend who knows Jimmy so-and-so who heard from the town barber blah, blah, blah...' -- that leased their land to the drillers have wells and pipelines sitting developed, and capped, sitting idol on their land.

    They are getting royalty checks and lease agreement payments; but those dollars are being paid by refiners and transit companies that have not even moved a single mmbtu to date.

    Now, I'm not saying that it's all of the wells in the region - but in Bradford, Tioga, Sullivan and Lycoming counties there are a LOT of dormant wells and systems.

    (in small towns there are few secrets...)

    The point is that popular opinion (which may be very far away from anything resembling 'truth' of course) is that there is a massive 'drill, find, pipe, cap it and move on' situation that is going on.

    Maybe the expectation of the Keystone pipeline to be running and accepting inflows is the reason behind the dormancy; but there are a lot of people that are 'close to the situation' - by way of getting current and future royalty checks - that think that at some point in the not too distant future, someone is going to yell "GO !" and there will be literally hundreds of wells pumping nat gas out of the ground at a rate previously unseen as far as production and delivery goes.

    That point in time may be this summer prior to winter demand spike, it may be held up until infrastructure is in place to move it after it is out of the ground.

    I have no idea. the more I know, the less understand, so I sure don't portend to be a prophet of any sort.

    Nat gas is really no different (in my opinion) than any other commodity in that it is a demand and production cost driven pricing structure.

    The US being the 'Saudi Arabia' of nat gas is fitting; the big money is not so much in the product itself but in the companies that are going to be on the infrastructure development side of getting it out of the US and onto the world wide market, thereby driving the worldwide price down off of that $8, $10, or higher...

    A lot of people are going to make a lot of money on the natural gas development and exporting side of things in the years to come...

    ...and along with a lot of Pennsylvania farmers that have signed, sealed and delivered 10 and 20 year land leases in hand, I plan to be one of them....

    rock on !
    Jul 17 08:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Puts In Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) Was A Good Trade, But Buying The Shares On The Dip Post Earnings Was A Great Trade [View instapost]
    I'm sitting on CLF @ 18.00 even. Looking to add on any dip below 17.50.

    feels like a nice bounce coming.
    Apr 28 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Exactly Is Risk? [View article]
    I suppose as soon as you buy a stock, you have assumed some level / degree / type of it relates to the potential loss of your money.

    not unlike any other sort of expenditure buy a car, there are inherent risks to that. you buy a tv, risks to that, etc.

    its really less about defining risk per se, and more about identifying individual risk tolerance.
    Apr 17 09:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Exactly Is Risk? [View article]
    Risk is when event occurrence probability and event affect severity collide. generally, the best laid plans rarely survive a head on collision with when a small biotech company is being speculated thru the roof with no earnings, no history of profit and suddenly it nosedives on a surprise announcement that it has halted a clinical trial due to some bad data. You know, like, just like Tom said above....I am raising my hand on that one.
    Apr 17 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Review Of Our Favorites: HALO, GDX/NUGT, KING, BITA, TSLA, PBR, CLF [View instapost]
    I've also been looking at PBR -- although I'm a little tiny bit more to the shot term downside at say mid 11ish.

    Agree that chasing above 13 is too risky.

    save your powder, take higher quality shots as it were...
    Apr 2 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Today's Selloff In The 3X Leveraged Gold Mining ETF (NUGT), What Is Next? [View instapost]
    sold my DUST pile yesterday and made some $$ - sitting on a bunch of NUGT @ 44.50.

    will look to teeter totter again today, and dump NUGT anywhere close to 46 anywhere in the next few days.
    Mar 20 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Robert Edwards: Three Timely Triple ETF Trades For Tuesday 03/18/14 [View instapost]
    NUGT & DUST ---- anyone else notice that YELLEN and YELLOW are eerily similar?

    DGAZ: this is the swing time of year. It starts becoming a lot more about weather easing up across the US, hopefully not a blistering hot summer, and overseas demand (Russia and EU)
    Mar 18 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Today's Breakout, Gold Miners (GDX) Still Facing Significant Resistance [View instapost]
    RE is right (which is quite the recognizable trend I might add...) -- destabilization and bloodshed, while initially a 'shock', are not good for the system.

    Gold, as we know, is a very emotional thing, ergo, also a very emotional trade / investment. It's historical that gold is thought to be a 'safe haven', and all that, making it the 'place' people go when the rest of the market is in a presumed disarray.

    MINERS, on the other hand, which we are talking about - and it never ceases to amaze me that people can't separate the MINERS from the physical yellow rock - are after all COMPANIES. those companies and businesses have to manage costs, labor, delivery, execution, etc. to even be able to get the yellow rock out of the ground.

    The HEALTH of (and subsequently the profitability) of the MINERS is affected by a lot more than just the rise and fall in the price / presumed value of the yellow rock that they produce.

    investing / trading the MINERS is not the same as investing / trading / owning the yellow rock.

    The sooner people can understand that concept, the more successful their trading in one or both (miners and yellow rock) they are likely to become.
    Mar 16 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Today's Breakout, Gold Miners (GDX) Still Facing Significant Resistance [View instapost]'s as easy as riding (and hopefully not falling off...) of a tetter totter !

    Long live NUGT and DUST !
    Mar 14 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Miners (GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, JNUG) Are Rolling Over Along With Gold [View instapost]
    look at them yo-yo's...that's the way we do for nuthin', and your chicks for free....
    Feb 26 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold & Miners (GDX) (GDXJ) (NUGT) Finally Have A Down Day [View instapost]
    We need to declare a national RE Day.....maybe a national convention in Vegas at some point?
    Feb 19 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    Heck no, I am not always on the right side of a trade.....! (don't we all wish that!)

    I do contend, however, that for the person that is able to see through the nonsense and simply follow charts as they move, that a higher % of success can in fact be achieved.

    Fees, commissions, all that are part of the game. Ya gotta pay to play. But if I make 100 a day (just as an example, not suggesting that is what I target), and pay 10-14 bucks in commission for a net gain of 86-90 a day that's decent $$ to me and what I want out of that small part of my income generating lifestyle.

    ...and I do eat what I catch...often.
    Feb 19 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    @ Agent Graves:

    Wow, you really know your stuff...I'm not quite sure what your stuff is - but you certainly know it.

    Let me break down my thinking for you:

    1. I'm not really that concerned with 'leaving money on the table'. to me, a profit is a profit. If I 'left some on the table', big deal. I simply do not agree with your postulation that 'leaving money on the table' is by definition the same thing as a loss.

    2. I suspect that we may have different (but perhaps neither "wrong" by definition) idea of what 'the long run' is. -- you don't have any idea how 'long' I've been doing what I have been doing, ergo you also have no idea (tying in to your sports analogy) what my 'win / loss record' may be.

    2a. I don't increase my "bet" size to compensate for "bad" investments. In fact, I don't invest outside of my IRA's. Those, to me are long term (perhaps closer to your definition also) 'investments. What I am talking about here is specifically TRADING. I believe that they are not the same thing.

    3. As far as the casino / gambler and small net profit thing....I got news for you sunshine: my "small net profits" have sent my 1st kid to college - meaning he will emerge essentially debt free, I have managed to treat myself to an almost new fishing boat, and my pittance of net gains, as you so decide to describe them, are continually trickling into my IRA's about once a month or so. If those cumulative sums over the years are 'small net profits' to you or anyone else, then I can only imagine what you are able to do with your fortune!!! Admittedly, I'm a little jealous...but then again I don't consider myself in competition with you (or high speed machines) - presumably, they (and also presumably you) are going to "get yours", I only focus on getting mine and not what you or anyone else gets.

    4. Sure, I have made some overextensions along the way, and I certainly do not claim to have a 100% system worked out (I'm not nearly that smart, I leave that - apparently - to the guys such as yourself...) but my point here is that I'm rather content and satisfied with what I do and how I do it. It may not be 'sexy', or for everybody...and it sure may run counter to some other philosophical bents that are out there (present company included, apparently) - but I'm not at all in it for seeking approval, yours or anyone else's for that matter.

    5. I'm not here to get all huffy and puffy and defensive towards you, because I don't feel like you have 'attacked' me in any way. I just respectfully submit that while your assertions are at least partially correct, they don't quite fit what I am doing or how I am doing it.

    6. In contrast to your astute and obviously venerable wisdom that must come from many years of experience, untold success and we can only surmise as vast wealth due to your own long held 'strategy' as it were, I believe that the only fallacy is that there are many people that make this stuff SEEM a lot more difficult than t really IS.

    7. Sure, things go off track sometimes, things transpire in ways thought to be impossible, and sometimes irrationality takes over and then - in a phrase that you probably are fond of using - 'all bets are off'. The truth is, there is risk in every trade...regardless of what strategy or philosophy is behind it. Even yours there Mr. Buffet.

    I do thank you for your interest in our thread, and in a way I also appreciate your critique of my methodology....even though your evaluation was provided without any sort of premise or foundation. I find that.....shall we say, peculiar coming from someone that appears to be informed and articulate.

    Peculiar, but unfortunately uninspiring.

    Good evening to you good sir.
    Feb 19 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    @ agent graves. You are correct on both points. But to be honest about it

    1. I can afford and actually enjoy the increased risk such that you alluded too and

    2. I'm not competing against machines in that I do not expect to 'win'. A win, to me is ending the day with more $ than with which I started.

    Frankly, I suggest that this is the very principle that many have veered away from....worried about faster machines, JPM, market manipulation, blah, blah, blah. Just focus on getting in, taking a gain and getting out on the plus side.

    Other than that, its really a bunch of blowhards and pontifiators trying to make their case about something.... to someone....for some reason....

    Stocks go up, stocks go down. The beauty of it all is that there are a lot of tools designed to make money either way.

    Ala the late great Freddie Mercury....any way the wind blows doesn't really matter to me.

    (In market terms, of course...)

    Otherham that
    Feb 19 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment