Seeking Alpha

ipahophead

ipahophead
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View ipahophead's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 49.14% Edge To 5 Lowest-Priced, Highest-Yield January Challenger Dividend Dogs [View article]
    @Fredrik Arnold: Great article; thanks for authoring it and sharing your thoughts.

    As a passing side node to the Dogs approach to anyone who might be interested, I am long ALPS' $SDOG ETF which is based on S-Network Sector Dividend Dogs Index as a portion of my portfolio. I admit that this apporach very different than picking the total best opportunities from the universe of Challengers which results in a heavy bias towards a single sector -- obviously this article shows that Energy is at the top of the list right now. I mention it here as a comment if someone is looking for a more "balanced" approach.

    In short, for 40 basis points in fees, $SDOG provides an annually-constructed, quarterly-rebalanced, sector-weighted Dogs strategy. I've not studied in detail the comparative costs of doing it manually. However, with (say) a $250K investment, the $1K in fees is equivalent to about 100 trades at $9 each from E*Trade or Fidelity. YMMV. I personally decided that it was a wash in terms of cost at this level of investment and below. You give up the flexibility to devise your own 'index' but you also get to not think about it. I also hold $EDOG which is an emerging market Dog strategy.

    $SDOG: http://bit.ly/1D2EnBc
    $EDOG: http://bit.ly/1D2EnRq
    S-Network Sector Dividend Dogs Index: http://bit.ly/1D2Epc1
    Jan 24, 2015. 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kimberly-Clark's Q4 Earnings Miss Has Sent Its Shares Lower - Should You Consider On The Dip? [View article]
    Another option: Write puts. I did so early in the trading day but missed highest premium by just a few minutes. I picked 3/20 as a shorter term horizon and wrote $110s and $105s. Including commissions and the dividend due in March, the $110s paid 9.6% annualized with break-even at $109.21 and $105s paid 3.9% annualized with break-even at $105.21. I considered longer term puts for higher return but felt over extended with other puts in April and June.

    I guess said another way, today you can make an instant 4% return and "buy" the stock at $105 via puts while waiting to see if the stock price actually gets down to $105. My theory is that there is no need to wait for it to come down to make money now. You "lock in" either a 4% return or a 6.75% discount on the purchase.

    (Clearly later in the day the stock price came down a bit more; I did not have time to track put premiums as the day progressed.)
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management: Assessing Movements Through The LIBOR Rate Curve [View article]
    No disrespect, yet that article looks to be auto-generated.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management: Assessing Movements Through The LIBOR Rate Curve [View article]
    @ColoradoWealthManagem... Any thoughts on $AI? While a different C-corp structure with historic loss carry forwards, I assume the interest rate challenges apply and equal caution to $NLY is warranted?
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charlie Brown's List Of 10 REIT Gems Under $10 [View article]
    @Brad: I love the concept of a portfolio of REITs that are targeted at long term growth of income. I agree with other commenters here that your focus on "share price" rather than market cap, dividend growth, or FFO growth seemed very odd. I also agree with others that the name of this portfolio is odd. Something cute like "Tadpole Portfolio" would have made more sense. :)

    Maybe said another way, I'm seeking a portfolio targeted at younger buyers who 1) don't need the income today, 2) are in a lower tax bracket, 3) expect to reinvest all income to enhance compounding, 4) have a income (not cash-out) horizon of 25 to 35+ years, and 5) look to REITs as part of an overall portfolio that is also held for the long term.

    My context: I have kids aged 12-to-20 and my oldest has been working in the last month to pick DGI stocks for her new portfolio. We've started with various lists and ultimately landed at these stocks being fairly valued right now as a starting point: $AFL, $AAPL, $KMI, $O, $COST, $COP, and $QCOM. My oldest daughter also threw in $ADBE, $DIS, and $TJX as "fun/want to own" even though they are "over priced" right now.

    Disclosure: Paid subscriber to iREIT and generally a huge fan of Brad's work. Long $CSG, $LXP. Owner but attempting break-even exit via limit sell orders from $ARCP and $CCG.
    Jan 5, 2015. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: Consistent Distribution Growth Through Low-Cost Mines [View article]
    @Elephant Analytics: Thanks for your article. Very long $ARLP via buys on very short-lived dips. (e.g., bought on 10/14 at $39.05.) Also consider $FELP, another "new age" coal company with profitable longwall mines in the Illinois Basin. I hold both for management diversification in this space. The consistent claim is that Foresight, whose workforce isn't unionized, controls three of the four most productive coal mines in the U.S.

    It will be interesting to see how the dips in oil and natural gas pricing impact coal after 2015.
    Jan 3, 2015. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Pain, Then More Pain... When Is The Gain? [View article]
    @Richard: Very helpful; thanks
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil’s slide could become a positive for coal miners, J.P. Morgan says [View news story]
    I think this one sentence in the linked article actually attempts to explains the thesis: "Lower gas supplies should result in higher coal prices and a realization that coal must have a bigger role in US power supply than was expected just a few weeks ago before the funding problems developed in the E&P space."

    Said another way, assuming that lower gas prices causes E&P companies to have funding problems and ultimately that causes less gas supply, the price of gas will go back up and that will reduce pressure on coal. If that's not what they are trying to say, then I agree with prior comments that it is nonsensical to say alone that lower gas prices alone makes the price of coal go up.

    Disclosure: Long $FELP and $ARLP
    Dec 11, 2014. 05:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Never Let A Good Bear Market Go To Waste: Energy Gems Amidst The Rubble [View article]
    @Fear: I thought the idea that "Most great investments begin in discomfort" was so awesome I went digging for the original source. I think I found it: Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, "Dare to Be Great II ", April 8, 2014, http://bit.ly/1wYfcjJ
    Dec 9, 2014. 05:13 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WisdomTree Emerging Markets Dividend Growth ETF Has Potential [View article]
    Thanks for your article. I'm long $DGRE, $DEM, and $EEVM. My DGRE buys stretch back to 8/1/2013. I've made a total of seven buys and always on dips.
    Nov 23, 2014. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrary To What Most Market Participants Believe, Our Dollar Is Verging On Collapse [View article]
    In short, don't buy $TVIX. In my personal experience and opinion, that is *really* bad advice. Read on if you want the details.

    Broadly speaking, I think many of the author's points regarding monetary policy and the risk to USD ring true to much of my historic thinking. However, I would like to apply a deep cautionary note to anyone who thinks they can time the market, predict the price of gold, or protect against the Fed's policies on anything but a very long term time scale.

    I was a strong believer in the "coming crash" -- even before 2008 and I continue to be very concerned even today. However, the truth in what happens when you prepare "too early" likely turns out to be as bad as (or worse than) if you had just stayed invested in the market. I am that guy that prepared too early. I had the same conviction as the author that the crash was coming "soon."

    To wit: I owned $TVIX. I lost a *lot* of money. It was a mistake.

    I must admit that I'm somewhat embarrassed at the real world returns I'll point out next -- yet I do so to show that being "right" too early can be just as bad as being wrong. These returns are proof that I'm a bad market timer and your luck might be better. I'll also point out the use of mutual fund products in these examples; turn your head and cough if you must; most of my portfolio today is individual stocks.

    1) Believing that the market was overpriced, I held $BEARX from 01/03/2003 until 06/12/2014. Over nine years. I lost 62% of value or compounded -6.73% per year. I should have not done that; rather I should have had an annualized return of 9.46% with $SPY, 8.89% with $PRPFX, or 9.58% with $BRK.B. Damn I was wrong. Clearly I should have picked a better dark horse to prepare for the "coming crash". It is also easy to argue I held too long.

    2) Believing that the dollar was overpriced, I held $PSAFX during the same period seeking non-USD income and lost 13%. Again I clearly should have picked a different investment; if I had it to do over again and knew what was coming with interest rates and strength of USD, obviously I should have been long bonds. Something as simple as $VBLTX returned 7.03% annually. Again preparing too early cost me tons of money.

    3) My worst mistake in preparing for the coming crash was I held the author's recommended $TVIX; that is why I've written this long comment. I had various buys in late November 2011, December 2011, January 2012, May 2012, and July 2012. I sold all shares with deep embarrassment and with horrible disgust on 07/12/2013. 98.9% loss. Total. Wipe. Out. For me this was the real wake-up call and life changing.

    4) Being a frequent reader/listener and mostly-believer in Peter Schiff and Mike "Mish" Shedlock, you can imagine I've made various purchases of physical gold and silver; I'll skip the details but you can imagine that the current price of gold is materially lower than my average cost basis. In the last year I've come to appreciate Avi Gilburt's post here on SA regarding the metals.

    5) In a taxable account, I still hold $TGLDX with buys stretching back to 04/04/2013 and my last buy just last week on 10/31/2014. Overall I'm down 19%. Ouch.

    6) In my 401(k) account, I still hold $TGLDX with bi-monthly buys since 2006. I also buy $RERFX buy there as a USD hedge. My return since 7/15/2010 is -2.01%. Ouch.

    To make the obvious statement, it is easy to argue with the selection and timing of my buys and sells or to suggest the products were wrong. However, looking backwards is easy; the hard part is obviously looking ahead.

    Most critically, I make all these points to provide a real world data point. I deeply agree with several prior comments re $TVIX:

    @MarcJoli "your timing has to be perfect in order to profit from your TVIX hedge."

    @DH51 "TVIX is for day trading not holding for months or years"

    @eagle1003 "Any demise of the dollar could be months or years away and that cannot be predicted accurately. [... the] recommendation that investors buy TVIX as "affordable hedge" against the possibility of a stock correction is just downright lousy advice. ... The monthly roll costs of these futures are horrendous!

    Finally, the author said in a prior comment, "I have not recommended holding the stock for years. I have recommended holding it until we get a correction of 20% or more and that's not years away. If it's clear the correction has something to do with the collapsing dollar, then I'd hold it longer but you may want to sell some to cover your costs and buy dinner"

    Rather than $TVIX, I would recommend income- and dividend-oriented entities that focus on global (non-USD) sources. This is the little Peter Shiff left in me. I hold these today: $FAX, $BIP, $GGN, $DEM, $DGRE, $EDOG, $EEMV, $ENOR, $EWL, $LUKOY, $NSRGY, $STO, $TELNY. On the pure gold front, I recommend $TGLDX (despite having lost lots of money owning it so far) and $GTU (I bought more just last week with the large discount-to-NAV).

    I still read Zero Hedge every day, Peak Prosperity weekly, and stuff like Naked Capitalism monthly. I think many of the problems are real. I just have lost my belief that I can predict when they will arrive.

    Timing the market is very hard. I so wish that I could have my time in market back. Give me the 9% compounded return since 2003 and I'll give you your 30% correction today. Using my "safer" examples above, I lost almost 20% with zero growth along the way. $TVIX was a total loss. Big mistake. Don't make it.
    Nov 5, 2014. 05:50 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Required Returns For BDCs [View article]
    My apologies; you are correct; I missed it. :-(
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Required Returns For BDCs [View article]
    @Buzz: Thanks so much for your efforts; deeply appreciated. Do you have equivalent numbers for $TCRD? I did read your 9/1 article on THL (http://seekingalpha.co...)

    Long $PSEC, $MAIN, and $TCRD. Nervous about $PSEC and considering a roll over to grow my $MAIN position.
    Nov 5, 2014. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Foresight Energy: Next Illinois Coal Success Story [View article]
    Great article; thanks for your efforts. Very long $ARLP and attempting initial entry to $FELP for balance in coal sector.
    Nov 5, 2014. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alliance Resource Partners: I'm Feeling Better About Owning This High-Yield MLP With Each Passing Quarter [View article]
    In my brief experience, ARCP is a real rollercoaster stock. If you watch carefully and buy on the dips, you can do very well. The dips are pretty incredible -- often a swing of +/- 5+% in a single day. Often when some "news event" happens, shockingly "investors" run out and sell ARCP within hours. We should all know going in that Mr. Obama hates coal... why sell when CNN reports that fact yet again?

    I've made seven $ARCP buys since February 2014 and my average cost basis is $41.08. My last and lowest cost buy was during the mini-panic on 10/14 at $39.05; as they say, I should have bought more.

    I now have a full position and continue to monitor; hoping to tune out the weekly noise and let it grow via automatic reinvestment. However, given the manner in which this stock bounces, I've recently been tempted to sell for my current 17% capital gains. I must remind myself that I bought ARCP for the growing dividends and compounding during the next five years. I will admit that three years of dividends-in-hand in a pogo coal MLP are very tempting... I'm very impressed with @SteveTheHawk's 75% unrealized capital gain. My goal now is a larger margin of safety on my invested capital and I hope that will come with time via rising unit price.

    Another MLP I'm watching for entry is Foresight Energy Partners ($FELP) -- I have a limit buy order at $17.40 and I'm considering writing puts to help reduce entry costs. The story is similar to ARCP in that they are a best-of-breed coal operator with unique attributes.

    My goal is adding another coal MLP is for diversification within the sector. I'd love anyone's opinion about FELP as a peer holding to ARCP. Nice overview here: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 5, 2014. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
96 Comments
92 Likes