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Atthecenterofthings

Atthecenterofthings
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  • Cadillac And Audi Launch All-New Plug-In Hybrid Sedans In China: How Will This Impact Tesla? [View article]
    Tweets. Hands down.
    Apr 22, 2015. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q4 hurt by delayed deliveries; strong 2015 growth expected [View news story]
    Well within the wheelhouse of possibility!
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q4 hurt by delayed deliveries; strong 2015 growth expected [View news story]
    Just went through latest risk factor section. They missed the vacationing customer risk. Wonder if I should call their SEC Reporting guy and make sure they fix that. Here's my take:

    We may miss delivery estimates due to our selfish customers' need to take a Christmas vacation

    We sell directly to our customers and we cannot recognize revenues unless our customer takes delivery of a car. In many cases, we try to complete as many deliveries as possible at the very end of a quarter so that we can barely meet the aggressive growth expectations to which we've guided sell side analysts. We are forced to issue such guidance because we don't want anyone to realize how silly it is to pay more than $200 per share for our stock. Notably, our practice of scheduling deliveries at the very end of a quarter increases the risk that we may not be able to complete the delivery before midnight on the last day of the quarter. It is impossible for us to plan for all eventualities that may frustrate our delivery efforts. For example, in any given year we may confront a Christmas or New Year holiday. We have no way of knowing in which year such an event may occur. We also do not know whether our customers, each of which can afford to spend at least $70,000 on an automobile, may decide to travel away from his or her home during such a holiday, if it were to occur. Investors should not rely on our ability to call our customer once we ascertain whether Christmas or New Year is actually occurring to determine whether they are travelling and whether alternative delivery methods are necessary. We're just not that smart. So, for example, if, during a violent winter storm in the North East, our delivery personnel brave snow, sleet and even hale, to deliver our car to someone, ring their doorbell for 20 solid minutes while freezing their buns off, and no one answers, then they are allowed to assume that our customer is off enjoying a beach somewhere. They will then take the car back to our storage area and we will be S-O-O-Luck and will not be able to recognize the revenue associated with the sale of that particular automobile. If Christmas or New Years were to happen, and our customers were to take vacation, our quarterly results may be negatively affected.
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:21 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highs and lows from Elon Musk's talk at the Detroit Auto Show [View news story]
    I was not Anton. Were you there live? If so, color please.
    Jan 14, 2015. 12:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Highs and lows from Elon Musk's talk at the Detroit Auto Show [View news story]
    Hey Adam Jonas - I don't envy the headache you'll have in the morning, but tonight, dream of large losses. :-)

    BTW: Without a Model 3 by 2020, any hope of a stock price above their convert conversion price is a pipe dream. Like many unlucky companies, they'll soon realize that those low interest rate, easy to raise converts are debt instruments that will come due. By 2016, two years before the due date, all that cash will effectively become restricted as the adults at the table will put it aside to repurchase oustanding convertible bonds at much lower prices. So no $ for Giga Factory.

    It's actually a shame. This is a great company that has put out an incredible product. Poor capital raising decisions will have long-term consequences.
    Jan 14, 2015. 12:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Audi Confirms 300-Mile Range EV, Plans To Compete With Tesla [View article]
    Lotus . . . Dead
    WordPerfect . . . Dead
    Netscape . . . Dead
    Niedermeier . . Dead
    Nov 20, 2014. 08:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fannie Mae Ruling Means Ackman's Valuation Is Now $100-$250 [View article]
    What are you talking about. History is replete with examples of market drops following the inauguration of a republican administration. The market under Obama has done incredibly well for most shareholders.
    Oct 1, 2014. 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Quarters Have Passed And We Still Don't Know Anything About Castlight Health [View article]
    Good article. Did you happen to see what the company guided for breakeven dates on cash flow and operating profit. As well, do you have a view as to what's the company's long-term operating model was suggested to be during the IPO roadshow. Thanks, ATCOT
    Aug 27, 2014. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Amazon [View article]
    "Tablets and mobile have made comparison shopping so easy that saving money is only a few clicks away."

    I will admit that I am one of those Amazon buyers that uses Amazon almost exclusively because of convenience and habit. I guess I always assumed that, if I wasn't getting the best deal, I was getting something close. So you're post is new news to me.

    Do you actively shop on several favorite other sites or do you use comparison shopping sites. If the latter, do you have any recommendations?

    Much appreciated, ATCOT
    May 18, 2014. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Were The Shorts Right? [View article]
    Sellinpanic, I'm sure a bunch of shorts got burned from the low 100s to the mid 200s, but I think you'll find a lot of people started being much more bearish and willing to take the risk of a naked short position after the silly report from MS which reminded some of us of the silliness we used to read in 2001 and 2002 - just before the Tech Bubble burst.
    May 12, 2014. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Were The Shorts Right? [View article]
    Well said GoldenBoy.
    May 12, 2014. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Wait For $140-150 To Buy [View article]
    Dave-M, I think you're right. Bears don't want Tesla to fail. And they do want to make money - like you have. Losing money is no fun.

    But I think this forum is more than about money. I suspect that many of the constant posters like the joust. It gets their blood pumping. I think sometimes the community gets a little too intense; but, if we step back, I think we would realize that we're all here because it's fun for us. It's entertainment.

    Some care for Tesla and what it represents on a very personal level. Some take exception to stock prices that they believe to be inflated. That, too, on a very personal level. They simply see it as unfair in some weird way. I feel that way sometimes. So many of us just want our opinions to be heard.

    Personally, I think Elon Musk is an extraordinary man. In my view, he is exactly what he must be to do what he has done - a combination of visionary and huckster, businessman and spiritual leader. No other way to bring people along for a disruptive ride like this.

    But I think we must also thank him for being responsible for the creation of a forum in which some of us feel compelled to participate - spending hours reading and writing. On either side, it nourishes us in some way. At least that's the way I feel.

    Just an fyi. I see Model S's everywhere since I live in their home market. It is without doubt a beautiful car. But I will also say that if you're in at $25, I don't think it would be disloyal for you to lighten your position. Even now after this drop. Jog a well deserved victory lap and wait a little to see where things shake out. But take that for what it's worth. All the luck, ATCOT.
    May 11, 2014. 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Wait For $140-150 To Buy [View article]
    Yup. Here you go. http://bloom.bg/1jFmQrc
    May 8, 2014. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Wait For $140-150 To Buy [View article]
    nysparty, the problem with some of the discussion on these threads is that people conflate a bearish sentiment on the stock price with a lack of appreciation for Tesla's products, their innovation and the positive effects Tesla has had on the industry.

    There are many who like all those things but also feel it is important to insert some caution into the discussion so that retail investors don't jump in too quickly at these levels. To do so, it is important to bring the price of the stock into the discussion. As investors, it is only natural that we do so.
    May 8, 2014. 12:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Wait For $140-150 To Buy [View article]
    Value, while I agree it was comforting that an LOI was signed, the company's absolute lack of disclosure as to what was in that LOI is troubling. Indeed, the verbal overlay, as thin as it was, suggests that they've agreed that they'll agree on something in the future. No mention was made of any financial investment by Panasonic, the form of IP licensing that Panasonic had agreed to, etc. - not even in the broadest strokes. In fact, according to the Company, two working teams were going to get together and they "felt comfortable" that they could get to an agreement by the end of the year.

    An email by a Panasonic spokeswoman to Alan Ohnsman at Bloomberg states: “We are talking to Tesla about joining the gigafactory,” Gyobu said. “We’ll discuss details going forward.” I would file this under "things that make you go hmmm . . .". The spokeswoman said they are "talking"; that "details" will be hashed-out manana. How is this really different than where we were in March?

    All you might have here is a non-binding LOI (a soft handshake by any other name) that Panasonic will give it the old college try.

    That's not enough to bet that the stock will start to move back up in a market that is dropping momentum stocks like they were hot coals.

    Discretion is the better part of valor. In light of shifting market sentiment, it pays to be careful. With this name, it means holding your powder dry until stock drops another 20-30%.

    Of course, I may be wrong. Let's see where the sell-side comes out tomorrow.
    May 8, 2014. 12:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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