Seeking Alpha

Geoffrey Harris

Geoffrey Harris
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Geoffrey Harris' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple Ready For A February Sell Off [View article]
    News and expectations have been great for apple before and it still fell back 10 to 15%. There have been two occasions this year -- once in June and once late this fall -- that machines and rule-minded people were tricked into selling because a rising 200-day-moving average crossed above a falling 50-day-moving average. That happened because the stock did not have a lot to drive it up a couple times and the overall market was slipping in June and fell off a cliff early this fall. I still think one can get it below $420. A lot of folks have target buy prices of $400 now.
    Feb 7, 2012. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ready For A February Sell Off [View article]
    One can time things a bit as the markets tend to be higher about a month into earnings season, especially after Christmas and in April. You can't time it to the day and rarely to the week, but often one can do well month-to-month. Also one can relate to levels, especially those set by historical support and resistance, and various moving averages, fibinocci levels, transit price ranges etc.
    Feb 7, 2012. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Doubts About Greece Hold Back Wall Street [View article]
    Actually now would be a good time to let Greece default as sentiment is so bullish now in the US. That would just lead to about a 3 to 5% pullback which would give people better entry points to come into this overbought market. It would also help me profitably exit some inverse bets against the russel 2000.
    Feb 7, 2012. 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grumpy Old Permabear [View article]
    It would help to elaborate on that argument, besides just talking about the disparity between the DOW and the Treasuries' performance.
    Feb 7, 2012. 01:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks To Watch, And What's Next For The Market [View article]
    How exactly do you define what will be in the earnings portfolio. Also some folks think that due to technical, seasonal, and fundamental indicators, the markets are due for a moderate pullback -- perhaps 5%. Am thinking significantly higher highs may not be reached until April.
    Feb 7, 2012. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ready For A February Sell Off [View article]
    Remember when apple went up to 364 last february and then came down to 310 just below its 200-day moving averge in june and then back up over 400 after its blow-out earnings release in July? Apple will typically sell off up to 15% of its value between earnings seasons. The hedge funds who play it wring it for as much as they can get out of it for about 3 weeks after earnings and then they move on. Apple typically has a double-hump phenomenon around earnings seasons, peaking once after-hours the day it releases earnings, and then about 7 to 10 days later in a delayed run-up. A lot of folks don't wait for the second peak but move on a day or two after earnings. Apple is one of the few stocks one is best off holding through earnings as it almost always beats and even when it doesn't as was the case last October, it still holds up fairly well. The big players can induce a sell-off in apple by forcing its price down through various stop triggers, and moving averages, manipulating options, and manipulating the news media. Believe the plan is to push it down to 390 to 420 ( 360, the prior lower limit this fall, is well below its trading range now) between February 15th and March 1st before bringing it up over 500 around April 25th. Folks make a lot more money playing ping-pong with a stock pushing it back and forth between 2 moving levels, then they do by letting it ramp up in a single ascent.
    Feb 7, 2012. 12:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reduced Market Volume And Its Implications [View article]
    It looks like the computers of the big brokerage houses are NOT programmed to buy on value or to take profits but just to incrementally chase trends through longs and shorts and so exaggerate run-ups and sell-offs to extremely overbought and oversold conditions. They don't see stocks as being cheap or expensive in terms of what their recent prices were or in terms of their price to earnings ratios.
    Feb 6, 2012. 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reduced Market Volume And Its Implications [View article]
    Actually the world is now a place in which machines make the rich richer and life is hopeless and worthless for most.
    Feb 6, 2012. 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Picture For The Week Of Feb. 5 [View article]
    isn't it time for a pullback?
    Feb 6, 2012. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Profit margins in the last three months of 2011 suffered their biggest Q/Q drop since the financial crisis, WSJ reports. If margins have peaked, companies will have to boost profits by increasing revenues, a tall order as the global economic outlook remains tenuous. Among the big names to watch this week: Coca-Cola (KO) and Pepsico (PEP). Both companies are expected to post healthy profits, but commodity prices might weigh on results. [View news story]
    Well, does that mean equities will have reached a short or even mid-term top?
    Feb 6, 2012. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Breather? [View article]
    Isn't it time for a pullback/correction now?
    Feb 6, 2012. 08:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs Report Has Food For Both Bulls And Bears, A Classic Case Of Confirmation Bias [View article]
    It does help. Well have played with the etfs, because I don't know how to trade options, one generally has to have a large cash reserve to back them, and one has to be sure where stocks are likely to be on a given day well out into the future. Am going to address each of those 3 points.
    1) The technicals that look at levels say the stock indices are overbought. However the directional indicators say they have a little more room to run. Many folks do see a lot of profit taking come in at these levels or just above.

    2) I have reached my pain tolerance (about a 10 to 25% downside exposure now).

    3) I think the general macroeconomic good news has peaked for now. Also February is seasonally weaker than January or March so this is the time to expect a little bit of a slide.
    Feb 6, 2012. 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Outlook: Capturing Upside While Bracing For Crisis [View article]
    Am familiar with Elliot Wave theory which is a bit like a study of fractal patterns -- which are similar on various length scales --, but not with TCA. Am actually expecting a pullback this month.
    Feb 6, 2012. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Is On An Ugly Road [View article]
    It looks like these articles on Greece are trotted out whenever the big boys can't drive the markets up anymore. Has anyone else noticed that the news releases tend to FOLLOW technical indicators' reaching extremes in the markets rather than vice versa?
    Feb 6, 2012. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Week Ahead: Be The Scarecrow, Not The Tin Man [View article]
    Feb 6, 2012. 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment