Seeking Alpha

john beattie

john beattie
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View john beattie's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is Silver Bound To Recover? [View article]
    According to a source I won't reveal, but is statistically based re seasonal strength of sectors, silver has just finished (end of March), it's second highest seasonal strength period, next highest to Sept to Nov. On the other hand, platinum's number one period of seasonal strength is Jan to May, so it's still in it's seasonally strong period. Play the charts and take what it gives, is my advice.
    Mar 31 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Nasdaq Bubble Beginning To Burst? [View article]
    You are just a big scaredy cat, didn't you ever play musical chairs as a kid, don't you remember the building excitement as the music played on, all the time you are getting more and more excited knowing that the longer the music played the more likely the music was going to stop and now it's your turn to round an outside corner with no chair available for that short time of extended risk.

    In my opinion, this is where we all are now. The momentum has broken down more dramatically now, then previously. Is this just another buying opportunity to outperform all the stogy old fundamentalists or is this just the start of the end.

    As they say in the games of competition, "gentlemen, place your bets, start your engines or let's get ready to rumble!"

    I will point out that we have just entered perhaps the most probable and dramatically upward two weeks of the year.

    Won't it be fun to see which group outperforms, and the most important development. The high level of excitement and risk.

    What do you think? Place your bets, I'm long excitement but I'm sure as hell watching my position relative to the nearest chair.
    Mar 31 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Something for Netflix (NFLX -1.7%) bulls to hang their hats on: The NPD Group reports that more than half of all consumers between the ages of 18 and 24 with an Internet-connected TV use it to watch Netflix. The trend could bode well for the company with the pace of growth of Internet-enabled devices still strong and with the young demographic seemingly enamored with the service set to age into the sweet spot of advertising. [View news story]
    yes I agree. Young to mid aged adults seem less enamored with the size and quality of picture production and more concerned with immediate access. Beats me, I want to watch in the comfort of my living room, on my 60 inch HD 1080p TV, in surround sound. What's wrong with these people, have they no appreciation of aesthetics.

    As far as Netflix is concerned, as they say, timing is everything, can they make it to the other side of the river without drowning or having to be rescued.
    Jan 22 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Picks For China Exposure [View article]
    so you are recommending investment in China due to the transition to new young leaders who are committed to making the necessary reforms to bring China into a continuing LONG TERM STABLE INTERNAL GROWTH scenario.

    What have you been reading or should I say not reading.

    I refer you to the article in the Toronto Star on Nov. 14 by Charles Burton, former diplomat at the Canadian embassy in Beijing.

    He writes, " During my recent 3 month sojourn to China when I was meeting colleagues in government and research institutes, I was taken aside on numerous occasions and told that the concerns I'd been raising about China's deteriorating political and social conditions were widely but privately shared."

    I will quote further snippets from the article.

    "General Secretary Hu Jintao walked out guided by the arm of the tottering 86 year old former party gen. sec. Jiang Zemin." So much for the new blood.

    "Hu's 110 minute speech was more less identical to his speech 5 years ago." So much for transformation and liberalism.

    "Only lip service was mentioned concerning corruption and the widening gap between rich and poor and the need for political reform." speaks for itself

    "In China, any meaningful reform would almost certainly lead to the end of communist party rule, as it did in the former Stalinist systems of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev."

    "What the Chinese people really want is an end to China's State police repression and an end to censorship of political debate."

    "No longer does anyone (other than this Morningstar analyst ) perceive the party as being at the forefront of China's social progress."

    "Lacking the political will to transfer wealth from rich to poor through taxation ( my add, and corruption ) and thus develop homegrown domestic demand, the regime's stability is certainly vulnerable to economic decline in Europe and the United States."

    And lastly and most concerning, "Among my Chinese colleagues there is a high degree of unease that the disappointing 18th Party Congress will further erode the people's support for the regime, whose authority will lapse further in decline. They see the military as the sole force available in China today to fill the ensuing political vacuum, even despairing that there could be a coup d'etat before the next party congress." ...... "If they are right, a strongly nationalistic, populist and xenophobic China could follow, a lose-lose situation if there ever was one."

    Conclusion:

    Mutual fund analysts should not make up uninformed lies to encourage the sales of mutual funds, it could cost investors dearly.

    While I am not saying China's economy may not bounce back after a soft landing, but to give investors the illusion that the new congress is liberal and reformist oriented socially or economically could be extremely dangerous to her investment readers financial health.

    INVESTORS BEWARE OF MUTUAL FUND ANALYST WITH VESTED INTERESTS.
    Nov 24 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal Competition In The Smartphone Space - Are There Any Winners? [View article]
    thanks so much
    Nov 7 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brutal Competition In The Smartphone Space - Are There Any Winners? [View article]
    interesting info, does anyone know what's happening in Toronto, Canada as regards to smart phone pricing?
    Nov 7 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A great chart of the dispersion of S&P 500 returns over nearly the past 200 years via Heritage Capital. At first glance, it looks like how they might draw up a bell curve in Stat 101, but a closer look reveals the powerful upward drift of returns from human endeavor. [View news story]
    for the few that still understand and properly apply the Kondratief long wave economic cycle, the returns from 1922 to 1929 compare to the returns of 1981 to 2008, both are compiled during the disinflationary plateau phase. Prior to modern day this phase in previous cycles was as short as 7 yrs. and as long as 13 yrs. Falling inflation, falling interest rates, low wage increases and a government return to financial conservatism, all resulted in an extended period of buoyant capital markets, eg high annual returns for equities and bonds. I had clients in 1981 who locked in 13% compound annual returns for 20 yrs. buying zero coupon government of Canada bonds all motivated by an understanding of the Kondratief economic wave. Followers forsake or misinterpreted the cycle in modern day because never before had world central banks interfered with the economic cycles as Mr. Greenspan and company did worldwide. The result was a very extended disinflationary plateau that lasted for 27 years versus previous long of 13.
    However, the structural causes remained the same, too much build up in debt and over expansion of production supply in goods and services. Now we have entered the depression, debt liquidation, deflation phase, and once again central banks are doing all in their power to avoid this relentless and necessary correction in the long economic wave. One can see that despite the central banks efforts that the debt structure is too immense and that ultimately monetary expansion will result in pushing on a string and the debt liquidation and deflationary phase will play out as Kondratief would have predicted. Make sure you have gold equal to a minimum of 20% of financial assets as it will play the role of money and gain value relative to deflating real assets, and it wouldn't hurt to learn how to trade capital markets because there is likely to be some major extended swings in the markets as the central banks and politicians try to prevent the inevitable. Good luck to all.
    Aug 27 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is AAPL Back In A Leadership Role? [View article]
    Having traded AAPL options over the last few months, my question is, given the extreme volatility and contra direction to SPY of the AAPL stock, does it not smack of "market manipulation" by HFT. By pre-positioning themselves in the options of choice cannot the HFT's not influence the stocks direction to make huge leveraged returns in the options and once again cheat legitimate traders and investors. Good luck in ever having the exchange look into this. They play stupid because they are focused on money not ethics. Good luck to the suckers.
    May 24 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Gold, There's Nothing Like The Real Thing [View article]
    yes I agree with Anthony, the worse you see things getting the more you want to own physical gold and the more you want no assets or liabilities linked to the financial system and institutions. You wouldn't just own gold but would also have a stash of paper currency sufficient to see you through a temporary financial meltdown. Security is the biggest risk in this scenario. Where do you hold your gold? Remember in a financial crisis anything is possible even government expropriation as in the 30's when the US government expropriated their own citizens' gold. Out of country storage becomes very complicated. Any specific ideas in this regard of security would be appreciated.
    Mar 9 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Gold Could Drop Another 30% [View article]
    well lots of opinions but the only facts are in the price and the intermediate price pattern is bearish while we are now in a short term bull move which if it extends could establish in the intermediate trend a higher low. To say more we must wait.
    Mar 9 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Economy: No Easy Answers But Don't Rely On The Media Or 'Official Spokespeople' [View article]
    freemarkets,
    that is the $64,000 dollar question which unfortunately no one can answer and that is why becoming a technical analysis based trader is so important. I came to this conclusion in the early 80"s when The Bank Credit Analyst did a series of articles on the Kondratief Wave Cycle which at the time predicted the debt liquidation, deflationary melt down as early as /88 and as late as /94. Mr. Kondratief had no knowledge of today's central banks and so here we are after 28 years of disinflation from the inflationary peak looking over the economic precipice
    Mar 8 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMW: A Cheap Play On U.S. And China Luxury Auto Markets [View article]
    a good summary of the co.'s business. The stock chart looks like so many others as individual stocks mirror the general market. Depends on your macro view of the world markets whether you would buy stock know. If you feel BMW will outperform, where's your contra short?
    Feb 25 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Decline: The Blame Game Continues [View article]
    Michael, I appreciate your comments but your answer doesn't help me much. I am not a novice trader, I traded professionally back in the 80's and 90's. In backtesting some of my old technical based trading methods on GLD over the last year there seems to be signals given one day that prove materially wrong very quickly, thus the whiplashs occur frequently. You lose on these trades and it makes it difficult to make money overall even if you are in when trends occur. That is the problem that I am looking for a solution to and I do not want to have to start trading interday and not carry positions overnight.
    Feb 15 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Decline: The Blame Game Continues [View article]
    trading gold and /or silver seems to me to be very difficult because of the day to day volatility. One must absorb a lot of whiplash to be sure to be in when a material trend occurs. There doesn't seem to be any solution to this. I an open to ideas and am presently studying candlestick patterns to see if they are at all effective in giving advance warnings to upcoming moves.
    Feb 14 01:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 REITs Yielding 15% And 2 To Avoid [View article]
    Informative. Can someone tell me why these mREITS trade at such a high yield in this low interest rate environment. Is the risk really that high with the fed. more less guaranteeing that short to mid term rates will not rise before 2014.
    Feb 13 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
17 Comments
7 Likes