Apple: Our Fair And Balanced Analysis Of Apple's Performance [View article]
Thanks for your reasoned article, it is quite astonishing that the earnings was construed as a bad miss, with growth numbers like that.
It steels me now, more than ever, to buy back in at these dips, in anticipation of the launch of what might be the most successful phone in history. To say nothing of the Ipad, which is moving its way to be THE tablet of choice -- mark those words specifically -- in the global market. I work in higher education and more and more, the Ipad is replacing computers, and professors are using it for lectures, presentations, etc. Soon, I will require one for some of my classes, in lieu of textbooks. I am not alone in this. And if you are thinking shorter term, think of how many college students will be loading up with Ipad 3 in the next quarter, as they return to school.
It is hard to imagine the next earnings report being anything but monumental. I got the last earnings wrong because I did not think that Iphone consumers would hold off on buying until Iphone 5. But those analysts who used the last report as a chance to "death-knell" Apple, are motivate, I think, by something else.
I hypothesize that those constant Apple bashers are suffering from envy and resentment because at some point they did not get on the gravy train and now they want to make others think they were right all along. So they never miss an opportunity to feel Schadenfreude, malicious joy at Apple's misfortune. Watch out for them and move toward the beautiful Apple music.
Great article. Exposed the fallacy that the earnings represented a miss. The IPhone 5 will be huge refresh and IPad is THE tablet of choice. No better time to buy in now than on dip in response to bogus "miss".
Apple's Important Macro And Forex Calls And Likely Post-Earnings Recovery [View article]
Interestingly, Aapl recovered almost half the loss in just two days. That is am amazing bounceback and indicates that there will be a lot of buying back in on dips, in advance of dividend and new product launches. If people think the iPhone launch is going to be so truly explosive, there would not be a better to buy back in than the coming week.
Estimating Apple's Growth Potential Over The Next 2 Years [View article]
Thanks, mind you all that the sell off after the q4 non miss miss was 6% and look where it is now. Those who are carping against Apple now are mired in their failure of vision.
3 Big Reasons Apple's Ascent Will Slow [View article]
Everything depends on estimations of market share. Let's say the demand for Iphone is slowing, which is a tenuous observation at best. Aggregate demand will always be high, but let's say it's slowing because of competition, expected refreshes, etc.
The revised figures for Ipad marketshare are now 68% . This is massive. And it is only going to get better. I am a college teacher and no one uses any other kind of tablet, and everyone is now using tablets. The Ipad figures, especially now that is is available in China, will be huge going forward.
Those people who are predicting a downward spiral lack foresight and are quick to judge on a bogus earnings report.
Buy as much as you can now, because the next reports will be huge. If you are bearish, you are betting that this juggernaut will miss two quarters or more in a row. Suicide pact.
I predict Apple back to 600 within three weeks, and that's as conservative as I can be.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
With all due respect, what exactly is the basis of your comparison with Nokia in 2001? These kinds of out-of-thin-air spurious comparisons are maddening What did Nokia have then that compares with what Apple has now? A 54% decline in 2 months?This is just stupid, sorry.
If you think that Apple's high of $644 just a short time ago was just epiphenomenal and accidental, and that it will never go that high again, even with new product launches, high aggregate demand ( silly high, actually), then by all means don't by Apple. What you are then saying is that Apple is finished, and then by all means, short, short, short.
But if you think it will go to $644 again sometime in the future, and even no higher, then buy as much as you can upon open today.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
In my opinion, and I did get shellacked by the earnings report, the exact pain as yet to be determined, now, today, is the absolute best time to buy Apple if you ever want to buy it. The Ipad is just beginning to burn and the aggregate demand for it is seemingly limitless and the statements about competition are overblown. It's hard to make the argument that macros killed earnings this time ( except perhaps in Europe). Timing issues were more important I think, but as some have pointed out, the earnings report still shows Apple added $7 billion. Do people think this is insignificant. The fundamentals are as strong as can be, PE ratio ridiculously low. Negative public perceptions of Apple based on no evidence and ignorance of company fundamentals present the best possible buy opportunity. Not quite sure I'll double down once I see how deep I am in the river of blood after opening, but I will acquire as much as I can on any dips with the expectation of powerful earnings reports in the next quarters.
BTW, I looked at the stock movement after the 2011 Q4 "miss" , and it was not bad at all and the stock recovered and took off like a rocket, so keep that in mind.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
Yes, Richard, perhaps that's a good coda, probably not tomorrow. But it is hard to imagine that money won't flow back in at some point in the next few weeks. I have to look at what happened in the weeks following the 2011 Q4 miss.
Apple: Fiscal Q4 2011 All Over Again [View article]
Why would you say that All OTM called are vaporized? That is ridiculous, the stock has the potential to bounce back in days, especially with heavy buying on dips. Don't frighten and depress people.
Apple: Fiscal Q4 2011 All Over Again [View article]
I think this so-called miss is being greeted with an overreaction, especially given that we know now that peope are delaying the IPhone purchase. I was wrong about that, thinking that people were buying 4s . I'll pay the fiddle tomorrow morning, but perhaps not for too long, since it stands to reason that if the IPhone 5 delay really is the reason for this quarter's performance, then the next two quarters will be very big indeed. If you ever want to own this stock, tomorrow is the time to buy in as big as you can.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
I got this wrong and will bleed heavily tomorrow.. But there was no one that had a good reason to call the earnings miss, it was all speculation , and that speculation existed last time when they had a blow out quarter.
That said, it is probably a great time to buy in and I expect there will be a move upward from the dismal AH price we are seeing now, and will see it back over 600 within two weeks, maybe less. If people want to grab cheap shares in advance of iPhone 5 launch, this week will be the time to do it.
And one would have to be crazy to think that a company with this past, present, and future, would implode over an artificial event like an earnings report. A juggernaut is a juggernaut is a juggernaut.
Of course, I did think like I think in golf. Never follow a bad shot with a stupid shot. I don't think buying back in tomorrow wild be a stupid shot
So it seems that the concern among analysts is that: " consumers may be holding back on purchasing iPhones now in order to wait for the next product upgrade, which appears to be coming by the end of the year."
Is there any kind of evidence at all for this, or is it just surmise? The precedent is that people waited for 4s, but the 4s is such a powerful phone that demand would stay constant, especially since it may be more than a six month wait. Do analysis really think consumers will wait six months for small improvement phone? That premise is a lot to hang one's bearish hat on.
What bothers me about these analysts is that they operate with some very tenuous theoretical assumptions about consumer behavior.
Should Apple Investors Be Nervous Before Earnings? [View article]
I would even go so far to say that the genius of Apple is that it is "macroproof" in the short and long run. It simply will not behave like any other corporation in relation to negative macroenvironment, in fact, the opposite is probably true. In a moment of not unserious jest, I noted in a lecture that Maslow's hierarchy of needs would have to be modified in light of Apple: their products might be as important to people as food, shelter, water, etc. and in some cases, people will forego the latter for the former. Clearly, one is not fully human in the global world without technology and certainly self-actualization is out of the question without it.
Apple: Our Fair And Balanced Analysis Of Apple's Performance [View article]
It steels me now, more than ever, to buy back in at these dips, in anticipation of the launch of what might be the most successful phone in history. To say nothing of the Ipad, which is moving its way to be THE tablet of choice -- mark those words specifically -- in the global market. I work in higher education and more and more, the Ipad is replacing computers, and professors are using it for lectures, presentations, etc. Soon, I will require one for some of my classes, in lieu of textbooks. I am not alone in this. And if you are thinking shorter term, think of how many college students will be loading up with Ipad 3 in the next quarter, as they return to school.
It is hard to imagine the next earnings report being anything but monumental. I got the last earnings wrong because I did not think that Iphone consumers would hold off on buying until Iphone 5. But those analysts who used the last report as a chance to "death-knell" Apple, are motivate, I think, by something else.
I hypothesize that those constant Apple bashers are suffering from envy and resentment because at some point they did not get on the gravy train and now they want to make others think they were right all along. So they never miss an opportunity to feel Schadenfreude, malicious joy at Apple's misfortune. Watch out for them and move toward the beautiful Apple music.
Apple's 'Miss' Creates Intriguing Opportunity [View article]
Apple's Important Macro And Forex Calls And Likely Post-Earnings Recovery [View article]
Strong Signs Apple Investors Are Naively Pricing In Robust iPhone 5 Sales [View article]
Estimating Apple's Growth Potential Over The Next 2 Years [View article]
Nice article .
3 Big Reasons Apple's Ascent Will Slow [View article]
The revised figures for Ipad marketshare are now 68% . This is massive. And it is only going to get better. I am a college teacher and no one uses any other kind of tablet, and everyone is now using tablets. The Ipad figures, especially now that is is available in China, will be huge going forward.
Those people who are predicting a downward spiral lack foresight and are quick to judge on a bogus earnings report.
Buy as much as you can now, because the next reports will be huge. If you are bearish, you are betting that this juggernaut will miss two quarters or more in a row. Suicide pact.
I predict Apple back to 600 within three weeks, and that's as conservative as I can be.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
If you think that Apple's high of $644 just a short time ago was just epiphenomenal and accidental, and that it will never go that high again, even with new product launches, high aggregate demand ( silly high, actually), then by all means don't by Apple. What you are then saying is that Apple is finished, and then by all means, short, short, short.
But if you think it will go to $644 again sometime in the future, and even no higher, then buy as much as you can upon open today.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
BTW, I looked at the stock movement after the 2011 Q4 "miss" , and it was not bad at all and the stock recovered and took off like a rocket, so keep that in mind.
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
Apple: Fiscal Q4 2011 All Over Again [View article]
Apple: Fiscal Q4 2011 All Over Again [View article]
Apple Disappoints, But Adds $7 Billion To Balance Sheet [View article]
That said, it is probably a great time to buy in and I expect there will be a move upward from the dismal AH price we are seeing now, and will see it back over 600 within two weeks, maybe less. If people want to grab cheap shares in advance of iPhone 5 launch, this week will be the time to do it.
And one would have to be crazy to think that a company with this past, present, and future, would implode over an artificial event like an earnings report. A juggernaut is a juggernaut is a juggernaut.
Of course, I did think like I think in golf. Never follow a bad shot with a stupid shot. I don't think buying back in tomorrow wild be a stupid shot
Earnings Preview: Apple [View article]
Is there any kind of evidence at all for this, or is it just surmise? The precedent is that people waited for 4s, but the 4s is such a powerful phone that demand would stay constant, especially since it may be more than a six month wait. Do analysis really think consumers will wait six months for small improvement phone? That premise is a lot to hang one's bearish hat on.
What bothers me about these analysts is that they operate with some very tenuous theoretical assumptions about consumer behavior.
Should Apple Investors Be Nervous Before Earnings? [View article]
Apple A Tough Play For Longs In Wake Of After-Hours Earnings, Shorts Tend To Benefit In Next-Day Trade [View article]