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ThomasOrton

ThomasOrton
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  • Should Apple Investors Be Nervous Before Earnings? [View article]
    I would even go so far to say that the genius of Apple is that it is "macroproof" in the short and long run. It simply will not behave like any other corporation in relation to negative macroenvironment, in fact, the opposite is probably true. In a moment of not unserious jest, I noted in a lecture that Maslow's hierarchy of needs would have to be modified in light of Apple: their products might be as important to people as food, shelter, water, etc. and in some cases, people will forego the latter for the former. Clearly, one is not fully human in the global world without technology and certainly self-actualization is out of the question without it.
    Jul 24 12:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple A Tough Play For Longs In Wake Of After-Hours Earnings, Shorts Tend To Benefit In Next-Day Trade [View article]
    I find remurraymd to be astute on these matters. The question is whether to hold my Aug 600-640 call positions through earnings, and I think, yes.
    Jul 24 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple A Tough Play For Longs In Wake Of After-Hours Earnings, Shorts Tend To Benefit In Next-Day Trade [View article]
    I always appreciate the detailed data presentation of this analyst. I wonder, based on the data he presents, if it is useful to compare Apple movements from the past, say, two years, with those of years before. It is quite obviously a very different environment, a different company, public perceptions and markets have changed, etc. What I am saying i that the percentage of declines might be skewed higher because of the comparison of different times, when so many situations have changed. If we adjust, it looks like AAPL has performed generally better AH and in next trading days in the last two years than in all years combined. So the conclusion might be different: "In the last x quarters, longs have been more rewarded than shorts"?
    Jul 24 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Investors Be Nervous Before Earnings? [View article]
    The statement:

    "Additionally, Apple is not immune from the continued global slowdown that could be a drag on profitability for the quarter. "

    That is the question, isn't it, that no one has really answered.

    I believe it is immune from the global slowdown. There is good evidence that people will buy technology, especially cell phones, before other necessities in some cases. For instance, in India, more people have cellphones than indoor toilets.

    My point is that there it may be spurious to assume that there is a relationship between global macro and consumer demand for Apple products, especially Iphones.

    Also, I would point out that China Iphone sales are likely to blow out and people who listened to projections based on sales of Iphones at Att, Verizon, etc. misled on the last quarterly earnings.
    Jul 24 07:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why Drag Your Feet Any Longer? [View article]
    What a load of dung... "their products will begin to disappoint from this point forward".. Upon what basis is this claim made? The Steve Jobs argument is still around? Who are these people!?
    Jul 23 08:17 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Selling Puts Ahead Of Earnings [View article]
    What does that mean, never safe? Of course it's safe in this case because if you get out Apple shares at 525 you are a lucky man to get them for that. Seeking naked outs is a good way to make some extra cash when you WANT to buy the stick at a bargain price, so readers pay no heed to Chad, unless you can't afford to buy a $500 stock in bunches of 100 and in that case it's a good idea to get a real job and not trade.
    Jul 23 03:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: Apple's Whisper Showing Confidence [View article]
    Historically, how long does it take to give back in the next trading day after earnings? This is the most important number for those of us who are long via calls and are trading directionally. For all of the trading I have done around earnings, I can't recall offhand how fast it moves down in the next trading day.
    Jul 23 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Options Market Is Predicting For Apple Earnings [View article]
    The math is correct, Instructor, heed this people.
    Jul 23 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: iPhone Down, iPad Up [View article]
    Bill, thanks that's clarifying. Holding October 650s, regardless of the reporting, is likely to be an excellent call going forward, especially with announcement of new products in fall. It would be unlike Apple to be static for a longish period.
    Jul 23 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains Cheap Ahead Of 3Q Earnings: iPhone Transition Looks Priced In [View article]
    One has to consider the Ipad revs. as standing in for any disappointment in Iphone, though there is no evidence whatsoever that the latter will disappoint, just speculation that market is holding off for Iphone 5. People buy what's out there when they need it and it is unlikely that they would wait for October when they needed a phone March through June.
    Jul 23 11:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: iPhone Down, iPad Up [View article]
    Open and honest projection, though think it is much too cautious if you think Apple will beat to suggest August 605 calls.. you say "It probably isn't worth trying to play higher strike calls that may only cost you a few bucks, as you will definitely need a huge move just to break even." I'm not sure why that's the case. If you go as high as 615 or 620 ( which I do), you can make more than double your money, especially if you buy right now, when the price is under 600.

    If it beats it will clearly go by 644, so I'm curious to wonder anyone would suggest call strikes below that number would not be immensely profitable.

    I myself have several long shot calls, September and October 700 strikes, picked up for much less than $1.00. If you believe in Apple, and you should, that gamble is worth it, but don't wager the farm.
    Jul 23 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Insights From Its Suppliers And The Road Ahead [View article]
    Here we go again with the "possible weakness" which will scare everyone out. Hold your call options, because the IPad will turn in blowout numbers. Apple is a beacon of excitement in a dead economy.
    Jul 23 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: An Eerie Sense Of Confusion For This Earnings Report [View article]
    Here we go again, accepting the anxiety ridden estimates, who have an agenda to drive the price down. It makes no sense to think this would be a weak quarter.
    Jul 22 09:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernstein and FBR air a familiar refrain about Apple's (AAPL) Tuesday FQ3 report: They're worried Apple could miss estimates and issue weak FQ4 guidance, but are staying bullish on expectations of a huge FQ1. Bernstein thinks China and Europe's macro issues, the late introduction of a MacBook refresh, and the failure of the new iPad to launch in China until today will lead to an FQ3 miss. Of course, this week has seen several tech large-caps rally after posting mediocre results.  [View news story]
    Here we go again.. the same old story. And people listen, same as ever. There has to be intention in these negative calls. Ignore them, as usual and load up on calls. There should be website where people can compare predictions with results and put half of these schmucks out of business, but people will always listen to anyone who is anyone. Thank G*d at least the dreadful Rocco Pendola has moved on to browner pastures.
    Jul 20 06:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Big Reasons Apple's Ascent Will Slow [View article]
    The logical error is: "The point was is that Apple has so much of the market share, it can only give some back. "

    The premise is that high market share necessarily determines a price reduction.

    But the main problem is what is called "kettle logic." People decide that Apple "must" go down and then add a "kettle" of possible causes, with the idea that one or the other or some combination will lead to the presumed consequence. A logical fallacy, substituting for analysis.
    Jul 19 08:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
257 Comments
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