Constable Odo's Comments

First Goldman, Now Apple?

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 11:48:30 -0500

Investors are likely dumping Apple shares to get onto Amazon's elevator to the stars. All year long Amazon has greatly outperformed Apple in everything except media exposure. It's Apple innovation this and Apple iPhone that being talked about in the media, but where it really counts for shareholders, Amazon is pulling the big bucks the market. I've only seen one or two Kindles being used in NYC, but they must be outselling iPhones considering how well Amazon shares are doing. I don't think Amazon has anywhere near the reserve cash Apple has and it's PE is much higher. Amazon investors don't care since they're getting rich. Apple can't even hold $200 and it's market cap has slipped well behind Google's again. Apple seems to be doing everything right for itself, but it's not working for investors.

If Apple sells 10 million iPhones and over 3 million Macs this quarter, Apple might just make it back to $200 with a tailwind.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 10:46:50 -0500

I hate to say this, but these articles are way over the top. Apple can barely hold $200 a share. Even Amazon is making Apple stock look like nothing special. I don't care how good a company Apple is, investors don't really care that much for it. All the talk about accounting changes, reserve cash and ultra-high iPhone demand is doing nothing for the stock. Do you think investors are going crazy that they opened a store in the Louvre? Hell, no. Apple share price is about the same as it was before earnings. Apple would have to sell about 20 million iPhones just to hold the stock over $200. I positively enjoy my Apple products and I think their quality is way above average, but investors just don't care about those sort of things, apparently. Maybe Apple isn't making enough profits the way Amazon is. Apple is really starting to pile on overhead with those retail stores and maybe that's what is making investors angry. $500 is a pipe dream. Maybe $250 and even that will be hard to come by.

Apple Upgraded to Outperform

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:18:33 -0500

Amazon has done just as well, if not better this year than Apple, so what's the big deal. Apple has been upgraded to the moon and it's still below $200 a share with no debt and a ton of cash. If investors aren't biting the Apple, then they just aren't biting.

It appears that Apple is also bruising RIM and Nokia, but to little avail. RIM especially and Nokia share prices are also taking a beating.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:56:44 -0400

I love Apple and Macs, but $500 a share in the next few years seems very unlikely unless Windows 7 is a disaster and everyone in China falls in love with the iPhone. Nearly everyone says that Apple shares are overpriced now. They said shares were overpriced when it was at $180. Almost nobody sees Apple as having any real value. Isn't that kind of strange for a company that appears to be doing very well. When Apple goes up a bit, the next day people are saying it's going back down. They don't say the same about Google or Amazon. Apple is just a strange stock for investors to believe in. It's like it sits on a bubble always ready to pop and drop.

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:54:13 -0400

Won't all Windows legacy software run in BootCamp? Why not just get a MacPro for both your needs? I'm not saying you should, I'm just asking.

On Oct 23 10:11 AM tripleblack wrote:

> In one case you have a generic, disposable commodity market, driven
> by price, and on the other side you have an affordable product in
> a brand market driven by innovation and ease-of-use.
>
> LOL, I own both platforms, mainly because of legacy software.
>
> At some point people gravitate toward quality, even when it costs
> more. Apple now has the successful image of a luxury brand.

Apple's Gunning for Records with September Quarter

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:15:22 -0400

Yeah, iPhones are iPods with higher margins. That's a plus.

The App Store Changes Apple's Mission

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 20:53:17 -0400

On Oct 16 02:27 PM jack dee wrote:

> > 24 months from now we will laugh about how we used to cut down
> trees to print newspapers that were hand delivered to our homes
> <
>
> i assume this is the comic relief?

On the block of private homes where I live in NYC hardly anyone gets newspapers delivered anymore. Most of the people stopped getting deliveries a couple of years back. Most of my neighbors either watch the news on TV or use their computers and probably some just buy newspapers at the many stores in the neighborhood on the way to work.

Apple Apps' Incredible Success Has Many Marketing Implications

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:48:25 -0400

I'd like to know how these people that claim most of the apps in the App Store are crap are determining this figure. What is the most amount of paid apps that someone who is making this claim have downloaded to their iPhones/Touches? 500? 1,000? Unless someone has downloaded over half the apps that are available, they're just talking out of their asses. I don't think that even 148apps.com has been able to determine the ratio of good apps to bad apps and they seem to be on top of App Store proceedings. Apps and games are only going to get better over time.

There is a claim that PSP and DS games are better than ones for the iPhone/Touch, but even if that is true, both of those gaming platforms have been in existence far longer than the Apple iPhone/Touch platform. So I think that the iPhone/Touch platform will undoubtedly produce some very good apps over a period of a few years. People wanted less expensive games and now that the App Store has low-priced games, people are crying about the quality not being up to $30 games. Just go out and buy all three platform devices and then you will all be satisfied.

All developers are getting a chance to try their hand at games and apps, but now it seems people are complaining that the quality of the games are low and yet if Apple were to start vetting developers, there would be another uproar that Apple was being unfair to new developers. I'm glad Apple doesn't have to listen to the bitchers and whiners and will just continue to do what they need to do to pull away from the rest of the mobile platforms.

E-Reader Wars Heating Up: Apple May Have Edge with Younger Generations

Fri, 25 Sep 2009 23:22:12 -0400

All those textbooks require a lot of trees to be cut down to make paper. Isn't that one of the main reasons eReaders should be used? We are looking for greener alternatives. Apple will most likely win the race because it has the best content delivery platform in place which is iTunes. Once Apple's server farm is completed, there will be no stopping them on storing everything one could possibly imagine in the form of electronic information. They'll just have to make some deals with publishers and such and then it's "stop the presses".

I also think that in 3 to 5 years many more schools will be well into giving mobile electronic devices to students. If anyone can push a tablet, Apple can. With creative programming of apps, students would even be able to carry out experiments on their Apple tablets.

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

Sun, 20 Sep 2009 12:21:10 -0400

The Zune HD doesn't have iTunes so MS might as well just concentrate on beating the crap out of Google with Bing. Multimedia content delivery is going to win the war of PMP players and the Zune is going to come up way short no matter how good it's hardware is. Anyone who has spent any time at all in the iTunes store should realize there's more than a lifetime of content there of movies, TV shows, podcasts and iTunes University. Once Apple starts adding daily newspapers, comics, novels and magazines for their tablet device, the Zune HD is done.

Content is king for the iPod/iPhone and the Zune HD is a pauper.

Apple's iPhone Gets a Foot in China's Door with China Unicom

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 10:00:47 -0400

It would be nice for Apple to get a few more retail stores in China, just to let the customers play with some of their products and have a presence. I entirely understand that Macs are likely priced well out of the typical consumer's range, but there's still the iPods that are likely affordable.

I see analysts are saying that Dell will do well in China with their $300 computers and Windows 7 along with that mini-something Android-powered cellphone. It'll be hard for Apple to compete for market share with that really cheap stuff that the Chinese seem to favor.

Apple's iPhone Still the Gold Standard - RBC

Tue, 18 Aug 2009 15:14:20 -0400

RIM has been a force in the enterprise for many, many years. Like Windows, the BB has the business world locked up and other companies locked out. Until the executives and employees actually running the company take control from the IT departments, Apple will not get in with any of their products. It's easier for RIM to grab consumers because sales are only based on a matter of choice of individuals. In a business, even if 90% of a company wanted to use iPhones, the 1% comprising IT can and will block it. No choice for individuals or productivity since a business isn't run as a democracy.

Right now it isn't important because Apple can barely keep up with iPhone demand for consumers, so extra business sales would probably be a burden at this time. Maybe in another year or so, Apple will have stabilized the iPhone platform enough to compete with the BlackBerry and BES. Until then, Apple needs to keep building up massive revenue and profits and grow its cash reserve much higher.

Apple needs to come out with a product that fits in space that doesn't exist yet or is mostly untapped and hopefully the tablet will do it.

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:35:37 -0400

I'm a Mac user and can tell that Apple is enjoying some fairly decent growth in the smartphone sector and notebook sector, but I really don't see Microsoft and Windows dying. There's nothing to replace Windows and those consumers (the average cheap ones) and businesses (practical ones) won't be buying Macs in any large quantities. I've been looking closely at Windows 7 and it doesn't seem all that bad visually and the UI seems easy enough to use. I need to test it with some hardware and see how it stacks up against Windows XP Pro. I need to decide what I want to run in BootCamp once I move to Snow Leopard.

Anyway, if Windows 7 doesn't totally suck, then companies and consumers will definitely be upgrading over the next year and Microsoft will be still sitting pretty with at least 89% of market share. It's a given. It's just the easiest route for Windows users to follow. Every new computer, as usual, will have a nice copy of Windows 7 on it and MS will just sit back and collect loads of money. I hardly call that a collapse of Microsoft. Arrogant or not, there is nothing that can topple Microsoft without crippling the whole computer industry.

The Case for Shorting Apple

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:50:23 -0400

Toshiba... Danger, danger!!
www.nytimes.com/2009/0...
news.cnet.com/Why-Tosh...

If anyone starts talking about this company, they won't have anything good to say about it and more investors will run away screaming. Toshiba is on it's way down. Apple is on it's way up.

AT&T: The (Apple) Brand Destroyer

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:22:11 -0400

If it hadn't been for AT&T, the iPhone might never have gotten off the ground or the iPhone might have been stuck on the Sprint network. Apple will eventually leave AT&T and that will be the end of it. AT&T is definitely falling behind the curve, but that can be the fault of the iPhone just sucking up bandwidth. 3G is probably just not up the the task in heavily populated areas of iPhone users. I think Apple should protect AT&T while they are still partnered. Screw the GV app as it's probably one of a few apps that may have a conflict of interest. Apple and iPhone users should just put up with it for awhile and enjoy what they can get with the partnership. No network is perfect.

Why Apple Isn't Making iTunes Available for the Palm Pre

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 08:26:46 -0400

Palm should create their own synching software for the Mac the same as RIM is doing for the BlackBerry. In the long run it will make it much more easier for them to keep Pre customers happy. Palm may be able to create software much easier for Pre users to work with. Does the iPhone hook up to anything Palm has?

An iTunes Subscription Could Subsidize the Apple Tablet

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 13:04:51 -0400

iTablet... failure or success.
I'm trying to understand whether when some of the tech industry says that the Apple tablet will be a failure, are they suggesting that all tablets will be a failure. That a tablet really doesn't fit into a large enough niche for anyone to make it into a success? And by success, do they mean that Apple must sell more units than the iPhone or MacBooks or some already existing media device. I don't know how to measure success for a tablet. If Apple can sell a million units a year and far outsell other tablet makers, will that be considered a success? Or will it only be considered successful if Apple can sell as many tablets as they do iPod Touches?

The way this tablet is being built up it seems it will nearly have to outsell MacBooks Pros in order to be a success to the tech pundits on Wall Street. Yet if Apple can build a tablet and get 50% gross margins and sell about five million a year, that should really help Apple's bottom line. I'm just pulling five million units a year out of my ass, because I have no idea what the target number could be for such a device.

What will be the criteria for success or failure of this tablet? Anyone have any current figures on Tablet PC sales and what number Apple needs to shoot for?

Roger McNamee - Judgment Day on Pre vs. iPhone

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:37:41 -0400

Yeah, let's all sell our Apple stock if (if, not when) iPhone sales start to wane. Haha. I guess there's no danger of that happening for a year or so. I thought the mantra was to get out of Apple if iPod sales start to wane. No wait, maybe it was to get out if MacBook sales start to wane. I'm holding onto my Apple stock until it reaches at least $200 a share again. I want to see those China Unicom iPhone sales kick up iPhone frenzy another level.

The Pre is a nice handset and a worthwhile alternative to the iPhone. Hopefully it will keep Palm in business. Palm can always upgrade the Pre if there are current hardware issues. I think Palm might have a problem with getting a lot of developers because they'll likely head for the iPhone first and Android second so pickins might be slim. Since none of us know what OS the tablet is going to be using. If the tablet runs Mobile OSX, there may be a lot of developers heading to that also.

I really wouldn't advise people to start selling their Apple stock just yet. There still seems to be plenty of growth for Apple and the stock price until at least the early part of 2010. You know, those 60% gross margins on iPhones are enough to continue driving the share price for quite a while especially if the estimated nearly 7 million iPhones are sold during Q4. Goodness, that's a hell of a lot of profit. Anything extra Apple sells will just be extra whipped cream on the Apple pie(chart). Thank you, Apple.

Why Apple's iTouch Tablet Will Become Its Flagship Product

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:55:41 -0400

I always laugh when people say that there's 65,000 apps in the App Store and most of them are junk. Now I know they couldn't have bothered to download even a thousand apps, yet they're drawing the conclusion that most of the apps are useless. But even if 10% of the apps were good that is a heck of a lot more than you'll likely find on any other mobile platform. And seriously saying that most of the apps are junk, really insults all those hardworking developers out there spending time and money on mastering their skills. This is just the first year and early on developers weren't even allowed to collaborate with one another. Wait until these developers really get the hang of the iPhone/iPod Touch platform. I'm sure there will always be a number of relatively useless applications, but the more that are developed, the more good apps and truly great apps there'll be each year ready to take advantage of new hardware.

I don't know how many software programs there are on the Windows platform, but then can you also say that most of the software made for Windows PCs are junk. There are a lot that may be unpolished or useless to most people, but you can't just call them junk without even trying them.

I refuse to speculate on this tablet because in theory it sound like a terrific device, but in actual use, I think it might be awkward to use as just a flat slate as I've seen in the concept renderings. Awkward to hold in one hand, at least and if it's flat on a desk it would be awkward to read from. I'd fix that if I had to create a stand from scratch. I'll pass judgment when I get at least some look at the real thing, if there actually is a real tablet in the makings.

Earnings Preview: Motorola

Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:32:34 -0400

It's a damn shame the executive crooks ran a halfway decent company into the ground. They should have been tarred and feathered for trying to keep the RAZR as the main product for almost three years with nothing else on the horizon. I hope Zander chokes on his prime ribs I'm sure he's eating at the expense of thousands of fired employees. A couple of years back, those executives flat-out lied to investors saying that there were plenty of good products in the pipeline. It appears that Motorola is gonna be stuck at six bucks and change until next year. Curse you, Zander and the rest of you greedy, lying buzzards.

Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:43:46 -0400

Microsoft owns the desktop OS world now and Apple can't do a thing about it and I guess it's just going to go the mobile route to make money. Apple will never get past 15% with it's desktop OSX because most people just don't want to spend the money to buy Macs. Businesses don't want to spend money either and IT is going to do everything possible to keep the desktop Macs out of the enterprise.

I really thought Apple had a chance to gain market share with Vista being a failure, but I think Apple lost desktop market share during that time. It really doesn't matter as long as Apple continues to make money from the mobile division and any little growth is still an improvement. Apple continues to say it doesn't want to make the most computers, only the best computers and I suppose as long as they accomplish that it's worth something.

I wish that Apple could regain a decent percent of educational market share but that, too, seems out of reach. It all seems to boil down to how cheap a computer system you can sell in order to gain market share and Apple just doesn't play that game. Profits over market share seems to work well enough and it will just have to do.

Bye Bye Apple

Thu, 23 Jul 2009 10:58:02 -0400

That's OK, you can always buy back into Apple at $170 on the way to $200. It should happen quickly when the iPhone is introduced officially in China.

iPhone Keeps Research in Motion on Its Toes

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:51:00 -0400

If Apple opens up the iPhone platform to other carriers, RIM could collapse overnight. Of course, RIM would still have the corporate businesses by the balls for a short while until employees start actively demanding they get iPhones even against IT's protestations.

Depending upon how much money Chinese handset users are willing to spend on data fees, the iPhone/China Unicom connection could leave the Chinese in love with the iPhone and not even considering buying BlackBerrys.

Let's face it, developers want to work on the iPhone and if Apple let's them get their way, there won't be any application that can't be built for the iPhone platform. Business or game apps. And remember the iPhone is still an iPod that has plenty of content delivery from iTMS.

Apple Sours: Analysts Doubtful of iPhone's Prospects

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 00:22:08 -0400

They definitely said that a $99 iPhone would really increase market shares and now they're saying it won't help at all. This is BS. The iPhone 3G S will sell like crazy once people see the video recording which is outstanding and the widescreen keyboard which should stop some complaints about the difficult typing. The new business apps and new games will only add to the 50,000+ apps. Nokia is going to continue to lose smartphone share. If RIM can do well, then so will the iPhone. The $99 iPhone will certainly induce new users to jump on the smartphone bandwagon especially with Software 3.0. And I'm sure it will push the Generation 1 iPhone users to at least move to a 3G.

These analysts just don't know what they're talking about as far as iPhone sales. Are they completely ignoring the fact that China Unicom will be selling iPhones relatively soon. If iPhone sales are going to be soft, then I'd hate to see what other competitor handset sales will be like. It's an insult that analysts are saying RIM is going to have a BlackBerry blowout sales quarter and iPhone sales will be soft. Nothing of the sort has been indicated that iPhone sales will be weak.

Developers are all running to the iPhone platform and they're probably not stupid enough to believe that iPhone sales will be "soft" by any means.

Big in Japan: Apple Retail Experience

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:41:22 -0400

Ossu. Your article gave me some hope for Apple sales in Japan. Sure wish I could've met Yuuki, too. I'm glad you liked the customer service. It seems analysts don't care much for Apple retail stores. They probably think Apple should just drop the fanciness and reduce prices to compete with Dell and Acer or maybe even become like those e-shops in Akihabara. I'm not sure what WS has against knowledgeable staff and pleasant surroundings to choose one's purchase. Almost assuredly Apple's computer prices are higher due to the added sales environment and customer support staff. But, so what.

All my past Apple products have been around for years and years and I think those retail stores make you forget about the added costs. Apple purchasers are always said to be fooled by Apple and the glitz is worth nothing. If you have to spend money, you might as well feel as if you're a special customer and you don't mind spending a bit more.

Just tell me one more thing. Are the Japanese buying Macs or not? I still see a lot of them in J-dramas for the exec staff, but I guess the company drones are still running NECs or whatever J-computer is cheap. But please tell me that there are Japanese consumers actually buying Mac notebooks and iMacs and the retail stores are somewhat "packed".

SoftBank and the iPhone went over like a lead balloon or that's what I've heard from some sources. Even Aya Ueto couldn't get the iPhone sold in quantity. Hopefully iPods are still outselling Walkmans. I'm a long-term shareholder, so every bit of encouraging news always helps my peace of mind, if not the share price.

Go-kurousan datta, ne.

Steve Jobs' Return: What Does It Mean for Apple and RIM Stock?

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:29:33 -0400

What's bad for Apple lifts RIM's share price and what's good for Apple lifts RIM's share price. RIM has a win-win situation going for it with only one retail store and two CEO's.

It doesn't matter how much reserve cash Apple has, how many retail stores opening, how much deferred revenue the iPhone pulls in or how many tens of thousands of apps in the App Store. RIM goes up higher each day seemingly buoyed by loyal investors that believe in a company loved by the enterprise is a better investment than a company that is considered an over-priced toy company.

I'm fairly certain that even if Apple were to strike a lucrative deal for selling iPhones in China through China Unicom, RIM's share price would go up even higher.

I'm only saying this is how it seems because, otherwise, I don't know what is constantly driving RIM's share price up faster percentage-wise than Apple's share price.

That being said, I own stock in both companies but many more times the amount in Apple than RIM.

Apple's Next Releases Need to Live Up to Expectations

Mon, 25 May 2009 17:30:33 -0400

There is absolutely nothing the iPhone is going to have that will excite the tech-pundits or techno-geeks. The new iPhone will be claimed a disappointment and a failure. Apple does not build the iPhone for these type of people who are only excited about cutting edge hardware at exorbitant costs. Apple builds the iPhone so that people can easily use whatever features are offered. Most of the users don't even care what processor or parts or OS is inside as long as it works well.

As far as I'm concerned, if the iPhone works just a little bit better than the previous model, that's something to be grateful for. Especially, if it's got just a couple of more features at the same price range. A doubling of memory and a faster processor will go far for a part-time gaming device and that extra memory can store many more apps.

What's not to like. Calling it a boring device because it can't be used for time-travel is completely absurd. I don't recall analysts calling BlackBerrys boring devices when they basically only excelled at texting and push email. BBs are good at what they do and that's what's important to users. The new iPhone will undoubtedly be very useful to most users for what it can do. Being a jack-of-all-trades device.

Microsoft May Be Able to Halt Apple's Music Monopoly

Thu, 14 May 2009 12:21:28 -0400

I'd rather own a little bit of music than rent a lot of music. That's how it works for me. I'll probably listen to the same songs over and over because that's how I like to listen to music. I've got an iPod music library of over 3,000 songs and I basically listen to about 30 to 50 songs over and over. These are extended and club mixes that can last for as much as eight or nine minutes. Occasionally, I'll swap a song out and replace it with another. I listen about an hour of music daily.

I've no use for a subscription model. Most of my music I listen to is from over 20 years ago. 70's disco and 80's old school stuff from my old vinyl collections I bought and paid for.
Neither Apple or Microsoft music sales models are for me since I've already got my own music library.

iPhone Apps' Launch of Siri XM: A Powerful Combination

Wed, 13 May 2009 15:46:54 -0400

I hadn't seen that side of it because I thought Sirius-XM was only good for satellite delivery using their receiver chip. This sounds like decent news. However, I still wonder if people want to pay a subscription fee when there are many other internet stations for free. Well, it's worth a try, otherwise those satellites will be just be moving in their geosynchronous orbits doing nothing but bumping into space junk.

But isn't Sirius-XM going to offer this app to other mobile platforms, too. Apple isn't getting any exclusive deal on it, are they?

I don't think a few dollars a month is a big deal, but I still wonder how much time I'd get to listen to it. There are so many other things to do once you have an iPhone or iPod Touch. Games alone can sap up hours and hours without even counting things like listening to one's own music. I'll just have to wait and see.

iPhone Users Still Rebelling over Apple's Apps Control

Wed, 13 May 2009 15:32:49 -0400

I keep thinking the same thing that Apple should buy into AT&T or buy it's own carrier, but I think that Apple is just waiting for 4G networks to come into play. It'll only be a year or two from now and it's probably a waste of money to beef up existing 3G networks. Too bad Apple can't build it's own 4G network, but they really should at least be able to buy a portion of some company's bandwidth to keep their own devices up to speed. I know that most mobile networks have some bandwidth problems, but the iPhone is just pushing AT&T past the limit just to keep up. 3G just can't handle the load.