David Kretzmann

http://www.pencils2.com

7 Comments

    • What's Behind Hansen's Smackdown? [view article]
      A further U.S. slowdown is certainly possible, but I'd suggest reading this article:

      www.pe.com/business/lo...

      The beverage industry has typically done relatively well in recessionary times, and given energy drinks' popularity (especially Monster) I'd say Hansen would be somewhat steady if a further slowdown were to occur. And if/when the company's international popularity rises, it should offset the downside presented here in the U.S. Plus, Monster hasn't nearly saturated all its possible markets and still has a ways to go to as far as market share compared to Red Bull.       Jul 05 12:22 AM
    • U.S. Elections: Both Tax Plans Would Add to Debt [view article]
      Not too surprising. Neither McCain or Obama have the slightest idea about economics and both would essentially be puppets on economic and monetary issues. Jul 02 08:08 PM
    • Oil Replaces Gold as the New Inflation Hedge [view article]
      Your assessment doesn't make much sense to me. The only way the dollar will increase and stay higher for a relatively long amount of time is if the Fed stops printing money at will and comes to a reasonable monetary policy. Unfortunately, this likely will not happen as the U.S. can't keep up with its spending without further printing of the money which is what causes inflation. Oil is not and will not be an inflation hedge, but it will be impacted by the further weakening of the dollar to come over the long run.

      You talk about supply and demand, yet you do not take this into account when talking about the dollar. The dollar is not backed by anything except the government's credibility (which is always a risky thing to rely on in and of itself), and the Fed is printing insane amounts of money, increasing the money supply, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of the dollar and creating the inflation that we see today. It's silly to think that the dollar can increase over the long run as long as the money supply is increasing.       Jun 13 03:23 PM
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill: A Close Look [view article]
      Yeah, but eventually the true value of the B shares will be reflected in the share price. As I said in my other reply to your comment, there are several ways it could come about, but it will probably take awhile. Because I plan on holding Chipotle for the long haul anyway, I'm willing to be patient and wait for it. Jan 06 08:37 PM
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill: 4Q Expectations [view article]
      I own the B shares because they have ten times the voting power of the A shares, and there's absolutely no reason for the discount. Eventually the B shares will correct to a more appropriate value, whether it's through a share buyback or if Chipotle merges the two shares. It may take a year or two, but eventually I believe owning the B shares will pay off. Jan 06 08:35 PM
    • Core Molding Technologies: 2Q Earnings Review [view article]
      You make some good points, but I think it's important to look even further than 2007. If 2008 is expected to be a rebounding year, I would expect the market to lighten up on the business and stock a bit. CMT's limited customer base is a risk, they're really relying on the success of their three largest customers to continue expanding and growing. I'd like to see them bring in some new customers, but that is easier said than done.

      Anyway, this will be an interesting business to follow over the next few years, it isn't perfect, but for a micro-cap I think it is an appealing business.       Aug 23 10:37 AM
    • Buffalo Wild Wings: Buying Opportunity at Hand [view article]
      The only difference is BWLD only has a P/E in the area of 30, Akamai currently has one above 80. They're two completely different situations and BWLD is much more reasonably priced. Akamai had such a high valuation that any disappointment in earnings would hammer the price. High P/Es mean high expectations. Aug 03 11:59 AM
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