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  • Liquidation in mortgage REITs picks up where it left off on Friday, with nearly the entire sector lit up bright red. Leading today's decline is CYS Investments (CYS -4.6%) after being cut to hold at Wunderlich. No details are available, but presumably the analysts there read the papers: interest margins are declining and mortgage refinance activity (prepays) is on the rise. [View news story]
    This sell off is utterly idiotic. So what if NIM and refi's on on the rise? Look at the yeilds vs any other fixed income or preferred alternative!! So what if yeilds are even cut in half? The credit quality is high and increasing...this isn't a bad sign.
    Oct 15 10:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Lot Of Misinformation About American Capital Agency's Q3 Earnings - They're Decent [View article]
    Good points. Frankly, I was disappointed and I expected strong improvement in BV. I think them overshot. But, this exemplifies the challenges in the core business model.Humans make the marginal re-balancing decisions. I hope they're not being shaken by a need to please. They're very solid, successful and competent managers. As investors we need to let them exercise their discretion. That said, I'm a bit disappointed with last quarter's performance and see real value in the space.
    Oct 30 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J. C. Penney And The Earl Of Omnichannel [View article]
    LOL...definitely...lower stocking levels...deeper brand connection...more sales, greater pricing all translates into greater margins and greater revenue. The bricks and mortar store is not dead at all. It just has lower in store stocking levels. M
    Mar 3 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Lot Of Misinformation About American Capital Agency's Q3 Earnings - They're Decent [View article]
    If you ever wondered what goes on inside a larger hedge fund, the mReit space provides such a view. I'm attracted to this space because the asset trades at a big discount to BV now an throws off cash. Good luck.
    Oct 30 01:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Rates go down you get killed, rates go up you get killed," says hedge fund manager Brad Golding, summing up the situation for mortgage REITs. The days of double-digit yields are over - at least at Annaly (NLY) - where new co-CEO Wellington Denahan-Norris calls it "fantasy" to think the company can just jack up leverage to replicate the returns of the past. [View news story]
    Are NLY, ARR, AGNC, MTGE, TWO...and so on, "bad" deals at 50% of the current dividend when HYD, HYG, PFF and the like average ~ 6%? I don't think so...I also don't expect a 50% cut is mREIT dividends...I've been long mREITS for a long time. I bought more yday. I'm buying today... I reserve the right to change my mind.
    Oct 16 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Cramer Sells Linn Energy, So You Can Be Sure I Am Going To Buy [View article]
    Cramer loved SD at > $13.
    Mar 14 03:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Lot Of Misinformation About American Capital Agency's Q3 Earnings - They're Decent [View article]
    Agreed. It's so called smart money engaged in panic trading that drove prices. The Fed was testing the waters, tactically. When it actually begins tapering in > 6 months the effect will bee far less pronounced all else equal.
    Oct 30 01:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency And mREIT Dividends: The Race To The Bottom Is Already In Full Swing [View article]
    When driving a car, it's important to keep your eyes on the road in front of you and to a lesser degree, to the left and to the right. I just don't see $11 for AGNC (or $5 or NLY). I also don't see the Dow at 6000. I've been an AGNC and NLY (and other mREITS and high yield products) investor for a few years. Yes. May 3013 was painful, way overblown in response tapering expectations - I, like Bill Gross, am long the short end of the curve and like Jeff Gundlach see value in many mREITS. mREITS were battered in May. Most trade a big discounts to their BVs today. Yes. dividends were cut. So what? A 13% current yield in a 30 bps environment remains very attractive. Yes. Price action was more volatile that I expected and I'm a little disappointed that their hedges didn't do a better job. But what can you expect from OTC products. The rate shock was huge and not justified by general economics or specific Fed action. The curve should flatten creating a fertile environment for mREIT investors. Both AGNC and NLY should work out well in the coming several months.
    Sep 30 09:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon tops list of energy shorts, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    ...the latter....
    Sep 20 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CBOE Is The Best Of The Exchange Options [View article]
    First, I'm the seal and not the shark. Next, I've been in senior executive and proprietary trader of BD's deeply connected to CBOE. Next, while CBOE has a great and growing franchise in VIX options and index options, the rest organic growth globally should disappoint simply because most of the developing world lacks a middle class that saves into developed pension schemes that invests in their local companies. The US will remain the big dog and US investors will drive CBOE growth more than all others combined. Next, CBOE trades at ~ 26 x earnings and ~ 17 x BV in comparison with the Dow, SP 500 and Rut 2K which trade at ~15 x - 20 x earnings. CBOE as a stock has become a growth / momentum darling Still, CBOE paid out hefty special dividends and raised its quarterly dividend. Real growth companies, don't do this. CBOE simply doesn't need the cash because margins are so high. CBOE simply can not reinvest its excess cash and so it returns it shareholders through dividends and it buy backs. Applying a market multiple to CBOE results in a much lower stock price in the $30 - $40 price range. I'm a value investor. CBOE seems very expensive...Enough about valuation. My biggest concern about CBOE as a Company pertains to its regulatory division. CBOE like FINRA serves as a Designated Examining Authority or "DEA." Both CBOE and FINRA are equal in standing. Every broker-dealer must be both a member of an exchange and subject itself to the authority of a DEA. FINRA regulates most broker-dealers. Historically, CBOE has served as carved out a niche as the DEA of choice for "proprietary trading" broker-dealers primarily engaged in options market making. Once upon a time, ~ 1000 options market makers provided liquidity to investors. Today, a handful provide liquidity and they are the "too big to fail" kind employing every high frequency trading, payment for order flow and rebate trick imaginable. Cui bon? (Who benefits?) Well, both the too big to fail and CBOE. Who has suffered? With 2-3 firms taking > 70% of the market share through payment for order flow, the other > 997 firms that made CBOE, not to mention the public who is deceptively picked off with each order. Bid-Ask spreads are quite wide in most products. Trading options is very expensive on all fronts. But, these problems are solvable. My real concern for the company rests with the significant conflicts vis. a vis. its remaining members, CBOE's regulatory division represents, and, the profit maximizing manner in which they go about their business of regulation. Apparently, CBOE regulators receive bonuses based on the number of alleged Rule violations they uncover. This is akin to incentivizing a loan officer to based on the number of loans made. No real justice exists unless the victim is willing to persist to the federal court system after multiple rounds through internal CBOE hearings. Hence the true cost of justice here enables CBOE to extract severe fines for the smallest of allegations. Unlike FINRA, CBOE in essence is in the for-profit business of regulatory enforcement. Cui bon?...Alas, there's no happy ending here....I sold my CBOE stock at $42 - $46.
    Apr 9 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Bell Tolls For The Bears - Buy The Whole Capital Structure Up [View article]
    Wow...humiliating for the bears actually. Mid 30's on the CDSs to hedge apparently highly distressed bonds....Seems highly inefficient....Oh, that's right...the CDS is an OTC derivative...Good work...I'm in for long run....
    Mar 2 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Bell Tolls For The Bears - Buy The Whole Capital Structure Up [View article]
    Good work Dante. What do the CDSs look like now? T--M
    Feb 27 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment