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immfunds1

immfunds1
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  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Schlumberger [View article]
    So, does this suggest by extension avoidance and liquidation of any stock similarly so overvalued in the energy sector?
    Apr 7, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: A Multi-Decade Growth Opportunity [View article]
    Sadly the Chipotle of 5 years ago differs from the one today and certainly tomorrow. Flavors are flat. Service standards are down...it just doesn't taste the same and it's good and cheap...and now you can also buy booze which is also not good and cheap....and the valuation is ridiculously expensive...if you like to risk your money on expensive names then this one is for you.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Puzzling Case Of Net Interest Spread: Western Asset Mortgage [View article]
    That kinda sums it up...The must distribute as REIT. They get to keep about 10% as retained earning and they get their mgmt fees...more retained earnings, more management fees.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Puzzling Case Of Net Interest Spread: Western Asset Mortgage [View article]
    Some part of the the "greater carry" could also be attributed to an increase volatility, assuming they live in a M2M world...an increase in volatility to net short options would result in a negative mark which could translate into higher carry...that's how it work in equities. Who knows how these OTC hedging products really reduce.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Puzzling Case Of Net Interest Spread: Western Asset Mortgage [View article]
    Thanks. Good explanation.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    What happens to income and NAV is rates decline? German 10 yr is head to 0%. T--M
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Management: Ignore Book Value Discount For Now [View article]
    If the Fed raises st rates and if the long rate remains fixed, this suggests an intention of choking off growth then by extension inflationary pressures...No evidence of inflation has yet presented while strong evidence of pervasive deflation has presented itself. Global deflation presents a bigger threat today than hyper inflation of the late 1970s. Therefore the rationale to raise rates does not exist. Further, the US real interest rate curve far exceeds those of other sovereign states and hence the USD is currently King and it should remain so for a long time. This relieves pressure to raise rates. The Fed has ample room to lower rates. Yes. it's a race to zero, but consequences to US citizens abound in truly zero rate environments. Positive and upward sloping rates and rate curves produce positive benefits. This to some important degree promotes productivity and innovation leading to job creation, growth, a higher standard of living, and immigration demand which means population growth. So, the Fed wants and upward sloping and steepening US curve and wants to maintain the pressure to raise rates across all time frames despite deflationary pressures. IMHO, the Fed would be INSANE to aggessively prop up Fed Funds. This would most definitely cause a major market crash > 1987
    and send the economy into a 1930's type depression. I light tap would be OK. NLY and AGNC and other mREITs with "zero" duration will do well in this environment or even aggressive rate increases because older inventory cycles off and is reinvested at higher rates. In declining rate environments, they do OK too with zero duration hedges because they've locked a spread. This sector remains grossly undervalued and should IMHO always trade > BV.
    Mar 14, 2015. 02:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    I agree with much of what you say...A perverse consequence of technological progress and productivity is wealth concentration but also a higher standard of living for the masses...more cell phones...more music...more utube...and less work whether you want to work less or not.
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    I'm long the space and ask myself daily why rates should be raised by the Fed. The Fed has zero justification for raising rates. Inflation is non-existent. Deflationary pressures on the other hand are as pronounced as inflationary were in the late 1970's. Next the US offering the highest and safest bond returns among all. The US economy is growing. Real unemployment remains at high levels. The absolute worst thing the Fed could do is raise rates, especially for the US. Housing will right size. The US is in a great position relative to the rest of the world, in every way, and, as a country we can make our position much more assured.
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    What did you do with your dividends? How were they invested?
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    Why don't you care about a declining stock price. What if you were forced to liquidate? What is your Total return in this asset? Has the BV of your position increased over your holding period?
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    yes, but...that's the nature of the beast...
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mortgage REITs stumble as rates shoot higher [View news story]
    It's not HFT traders. Everyone's an electronic trader, therefore everyone connects to an HFT infrastructure. This sector should not trade at BV discounts. I doubt if larger funds (Soros, PIMCO, Doubline...) actually trade these names. It's the individual investor and his 100 lot emotional trades that push the marginal price up and down. Long term shareholders benefit as a consequence. These companies should consider going private.
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corporation And One Other Stock Can Fund My Retirement [View article]
    I own NYMT too and others in the space. The term "best of breed" suggests high marks among an array of factors.
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Annaly Capital Management's BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    Great compilation Scott. Hedging, like MBS securities themselves, is a tricky subject, given the non-linear nature of each. Forwards, futures, swaps, swaptions, puts, calls...it doesn't get any more complex. When I see negative duration, i cringe. Over hedging at a bottom can be disastrous. And, consider who is making the market for these hedging instruments...( GS, MS, BAML, DB, CS...)...These instruments don't trade on exchanges...I'm not against active management whatsoever...How do these companies stack up wrt non-linear OTM tail risk? T--M
    Mar 5, 2015. 09:46 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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