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immfunds1

immfunds1
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  • What's Wrong With The mREITs? - MORL Now Yields 29.4% [View article]
    This is the best article I've read written by you on mREITs. Thanks.
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: House Of Pain [View article]
    The earning capacity of all mREITs will increase with rising and higher rates. AGNCs duration approaches zero. mREITs should trade near BV. AGNC should amplify their buy back program before a third party steps in and does so.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling The 'Value' Myths About Discount To Book Value [View article]
    I like your approach. HOWEVER - AGNC and most others have hedged away whatever duration they naturally carry to < 6 months...ridiculously short IMHO. I don't know the exact quoted duration of the hedged book off the top of my head. It may even be zero. These guys are setting up arb spreads. They're very sophisticated and these stocks as a group should trade at a slight premium and NOT and BV discount.
    Jul 22, 2015. 10:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 5 Reasons To Buy Prospect Capital On Another Dip [View article]
    Too enthusiastic. Mgmt could and should buy shares for their personal accounts and buy shares for the company shareholders. Mgmt does not buy shares for the company. Why?...Management has defective incentives from the shareholders POV.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The AIG Ruling And The Implications For Fannie Mae [View article]
    Charlie, I appreciate your comments. Good job.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The AIG Ruling And The Implications For Fannie Mae [View article]
    Agreed.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The AIG Ruling And The Implications For Fannie Mae [View article]
    ...AIG was making profit all along...
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The AIG Ruling And The Implications For Fannie Mae [View article]
    I appreciate your reasoning.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On The AIG Ruling And The Implications For Fannie Mae [View article]
    C'mon...So, GS was more important than AIG?..to whom? Tough to argue when the Feds have a gun in your mouth.
    Jun 24, 2015. 08:07 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Oaks -3.9% after slashing dividend [View news story]
    There's no free lunch. At 100% BV 1.20 per year translates into some 10% pa. Not bad in any environment. At 8.65, 1.20 translates into nearly 14% per year. What's the problem? Who cares?...mREITS should not trade at BV discounts and they are not bonds. An mREIT is an equity security with a variable dividend. They operate businesses that provide investment capital to mortgage originators and as such hedge their inventories to in effect reduce LT rate risk to very short term rate risk. IF and when rates rise or the curve steepens an mREIT's ability to increase profit also increases. If an mREIT's management cannot make more money, all else equal, in a rising rate environment, then I would consider that management as incompetent. All mREITs with honest and competent management trading a BV discounts should be be bought now.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency And The Duration Gap [View article]
    Colorado - I think you've got it right. Higher rates or a steeper curve lead to greater operating earnings. The mREIT share prices are extremely under valued especially since they are required to pay out > 90% of actual earnings, 2) generally have very low duration approaching zero (or even <0) as a consequence of their hedging activities resulting, in effect, a locked in spread, all else equal. Their retained earnings would be reinvested in higher rate deals. They could additionally buy in stock reducing the BV discount and in effect leveraging the balance sheet up which I would support. Investors simply do not understand the security.
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation Compared To Several Peers (Post Q1 2015 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    I would not be a happy investor if they issued more CS. On the other hand, I'm reasonably sure AGNC and others could increase leverage to support new positions which would drive earnings growth. I fully expect the BV discount to contract.
    Jun 4, 2015. 03:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation Compared To Several Peers (Post Q1 2015 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    Scott -- I appreciate your detailed work which begs the question. If AGNC and NLY are buys, then what is their accurate Fair Value? I suggest it's 10 - 20% above BV if only because of the collection of talent and ongoing business processes in place. If one believes higher rates lead to greater margins and that rates are due to increase, then, all mREITs should benefit from greater earnings power such an environment induces. This is akin to having the wind behind your back. BV's and earnings growth should increase going forward. No rational justification exists for these massive BV discounts which I liken to another form of "irrational exuberance."
    Jun 3, 2015. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Guide To Inflating Core EPS And Faking Dividend Sustainability Using Annaly Capital Management [View article]
    I enjoy your writing and content.
    May 21, 2015. 10:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators: What Does It Mean When The CEO Resigns Unexpectedly? [View article]
    Dante -- nice to read your comments again...
    May 21, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
129 Comments
221 Likes