Gaucho

Not Yet Time to Buy Homebuilders

You said "If you are a long-term investor, how can you NOT buy a sector that is down 75-90%????? Sure, wait, wait till you hear good news. Wait till the sector is up 50%. Don't believe me? ITB fell to about 13.3 in January. Now it's in a trading range between 17 and 20. So, already you've missed as much as 50% of the gain. Not yet time? As a long-term investor, now is precisely the time. Did I catch the exact low? Of course not. I bought at 16."


You should buy a sector that is down 60-70% since much of that runup in price has happened in the last 3-4 years.

The bottom of the housing fall will not happen for at least 2 years. Most of the recent run-up was the result of fools like you thinking this housing crisis was going to end by the second 1/2 of this year.

This is a long term bear market and stagflation is arriving now. Keep buying so when you finally capitulate I will get the most gains.