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Gaucho

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  • Arena Sales Picking Up [View article]
    Spencer says

    ""Week 1 1413
    2 1639
    3 1901
    4 2206
    5 2558
    6 2968""

    But at week three Symphony has reported Belviq of nearly 2700. Sales seem to have increase by about 40% in week three. Yet you stick to those numbers? Yet there is no room in your model for a hockey stick in growth either. You numbers seem a little NEGATIVE.
    Jul 7, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales Picking Up [View article]
    NOOO trubeck1 that is one analysts estimates and the rest are 18 million. You need to separate out revenue that include the 60 million dollars bonus for DEA release
    Jul 7, 2013. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena Sales Picking Up [View article]
    ""We do not know which is more accurate yet""
    I think it is safe to assume that Symphony is not creating these numbers out of thin air. They are reporting what they are seeing. IMS is also but it seems they are not receiving data from as many sources. But as usual you only want to look at the worst case. Just be extremely conservative right?
    Jul 5, 2013. 11:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus's Qsymia Now Available At 8,000 Pharmacies - Is It Enough? [View article]
    WOW PE you are a doctor behind that mask.
    Jul 3, 2013. 04:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There's a lively debate taking place regarding Belviq prescription numbers. According to IMS, 1,829 prescriptions were written for Arena's (ARNA -0.4%) weight-loss pill in its second week on the market. SA contributor Reasonable Risk says the data were "improperly analyzed," while TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein calls the drug "marginally effective" and points to what he says are contradictory claims from "Areniacs" regarding the reliability of two week's worth of data. [View news story]
    The following is why investors should buy and Hold Arena stock

    The AMA declared Obesity a disease which opens the way for more insurance coverage

    The ADA has an article that shows that Belviq reduces the HbA1c levels by -1.2 for responders. A remarkable number that surpasses most drugs (6 BILLION DOLLAR market) for that purpose and Belviq costs less.

    The AACE has Belviq listed as part of obesity/diabetes treatment.

    The state of Michigan now lists Belviq as covered under Medicaid part D, Other states are soon to follow

    Congress has initiated a bill to cover Medicare medication for Obese people with the 5% in 12 weeks reflecting Bleviq's label.


    There are 60 million shares short!

    That represents nearly 30% of the float

    There are no shares available to short

    The shorts are abusing the MM exemption with reverse conversions to create shares and paying a steep price to do it

    The cost to borrow shares to short is 0ver 30% today so the carrying g cost to the shorts is enormous.
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:18 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's a lively debate taking place regarding Belviq prescription numbers. According to IMS, 1,829 prescriptions were written for Arena's (ARNA -0.4%) weight-loss pill in its second week on the market. SA contributor Reasonable Risk says the data were "improperly analyzed," while TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein calls the drug "marginally effective" and points to what he says are contradictory claims from "Areniacs" regarding the reliability of two week's worth of data. [View news story]
    According to IMS, 1,829 prescriptions were written for Arena's

    Symphony has the prescriptions at 2150 and these serves under report.

    ""TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein calls the drug "marginally effective""' Adam has a well deserved reputation and he predicted Belviq would never be approved.
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:17 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivus's Qsymia Now Available At 8,000 Pharmacies - Is It Enough? [View article]
    SPENCER how convenient you forgot to mention Symphony numbers for Belviq which are about 2150. Always use the lower number even though these services tend to under report. It seems it took 2 months for Qsymia sale to reach the numbers belviq has in 2 weeks.

    With only 30% of those who refilling I doubt that Qsymia will ever make money for Vivus
    Jul 2, 2013. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Second Week Sales - Not Bad, But Not Good Either [View article]
    The start of over 3000 prescriptions in the first two weeks is excellent compared to other launches
    Jul 2, 2013. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Improper Analysis Of Belviq's IMS Prescription Data Causes A 9% Sell-Off Of Arena On Good News [View article]
    The following is why investors should buy and Hold Arena stock

    The AMA declared Obesity a disease which opens the way for more insurance coverage

    The ADA has an article that shows that Belviq reduces the HbA1c levels by -1.2 for responders. A remarkable number that surpasses most drugs (6 BILLION DOLLAR market) for that purpose and Belviq costs less.

    The AACE has Belviq listed as part of obesity/diabetes treatment.

    The state of Michigan now lists Belviq as covered under Medicaid part D, Other states are soon to follow

    Congress has initiated a bill to cover Medicare medication for Obese people with the 5% in 12 weeks reflecting Bleviq's label.


    There are 60 million shares short!

    That represents nearly 30% of the float

    There are no shares available to short

    The shorts are abusing the MM exemption with reverse conversions to create shares and paying a steep price to do it

    The cost to borrow shares to short is 0ver 30% today so the carrying g cost to the shorts is enormous.

    The shorts stand to lose over 1/2 billion dollars

    The shorts can and have hired the best misinformation people to manipulate you

    THE shorts are screwed and their desperation shows with the number of FUD posts and disinformation articles.
    Jul 1, 2013. 11:18 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Second Week Sales - Not Bad, But Not Good Either [View article]
    Well healthy looks like IMS had Qsymia numbers falling 5%, While the other service had them falling about 7%. At the same time Belviqs went up 90% and is expecting another 90% which will put them about even with Qsymia in three weeks after Qsymia has been on the market 7 plus months.
    Jul 1, 2013. 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Second Week Sales - Not Bad, But Not Good Either [View article]
    Well spencer the other service that counts prescriptions had Belviq sales at about 2200. But we do not want to mention that now do we.
    Jul 1, 2013. 10:34 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq - The Path To $150 Million In Sales [View article]
    HEY PE

    A poster on IV has contacted IMS institute and he said that they told him as of 6/28 the daily sales were 588 and growing. If this is true then the next reporting period should have over 4,000 scripts in 1 week. This would be an incredible growth rate of 90% week over week for the second time.

    I can hardly wait for raccoon boy and our most prolific Arena poster to spin that one away.. I know they will try but it will be truly entertaining.
    Jul 1, 2013. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena: The Improving Odds Of A Belviq Blockbuster [View article]
    This is why it will become a blockbuster
    Abstract From an presenter at the ADA conference in Chicago
    Lorcaserin, (Belviq) a selective 5-HT2C agonist, was recently approved for weight management in conjunction with lifestyle modification in obese patients (BMI ≥30) and overweight patients (BMI ≥27) with at least one co-morbidity. In patients without diabetes, proportions achieving ≥5% weight loss and absolute weight loss at Week (W)52 for lorcaserin vs. placebo were 47 vs. 23% and 5.8 vs. 2.5kg respectively (MITT-LOCF). In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) results were 38 vs.16% and 4.7 vs.1.6kg respectively.

    To limit exposure and maximize benefit the predictive value for >5% W52 weight loss was assessed at W12. Patients not losing at least 5% at W12 (non-responders) should be discontinued.

    Proportions of responders without diabetes lorcaserin vs. placebo were 49.3 vs. 22.6%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders without diabetes was 10.6kg (23 lbs) with 86% and 50% achieving at least 5% and 10% weight loss respectively.

    Proportions of responders with T2DM lorcaserin vs. placebo were 35.9 vs. 11.5%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders with T2DM was 9.3kg (20 lbs) with 71% and 36% achieving 5% and 10% weight loss. W52 reductions in FPG and A1C in lorcaserin responders with T2DM were 29.3mg/dL and 1.2%. W52 reductions in systolic and diastolic BP and heart rate were 3.4mmHg 2.5mmHg and 2.5BPM in lorcaserin responders without diabetes and 2.6mmHg 1.9mmHg and
    3.2BPM in lorcaserin responders with T2DM.

    Achievement of ≥5% weight loss by W12 is a strong predictor of robust one-year lorcaserin responses in weight cardiovascular vital signs and glycemia.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq - The Path To $150 Million In Sales [View article]
    FYI
    Abstract From an presenter at the ADA conference in Chicago
    Lorcaserin, (Belviq) a selective 5-HT2C agonist, was recently approved for weight management in conjunction with lifestyle modification in obese patients (BMI ≥30) and overweight patients (BMI ≥27) with at least one co-morbidity. In patients without diabetes, proportions achieving ≥5% weight loss and absolute weight loss at Week (W)52 for lorcaserin vs. placebo were 47 vs. 23% and 5.8 vs. 2.5kg respectively (MITT-LOCF). In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) results were 38 vs.16% and 4.7 vs.1.6kg respectively.

    To limit exposure and maximize benefit the predictive value for >5% W52 weight loss was assessed at W12. Patients not losing at least 5% at W12 (non-responders) should be discontinued.

    Proportions of responders without diabetes lorcaserin vs. placebo were 49.3 vs. 22.6%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders without diabetes was 10.6kg (23 lbs) with 86% and 50% achieving at least 5% and 10% weight loss respectively.

    Proportions of responders with T2DM lorcaserin vs. placebo were 35.9 vs. 11.5%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders with T2DM was 9.3kg (20 lbs) with 71% and 36% achieving 5% and 10% weight loss. W52 reductions in FPG and A1C in lorcaserin responders with T2DM were 29.3mg/dL and 1.2%. W52 reductions in systolic and diastolic BP and heart rate were 3.4mmHg 2.5mmHg and 2.5BPM in lorcaserin responders without diabetes and 2.6mmHg 1.9mmHg and
    3.2BPM in lorcaserin responders with T2DM.

    Achievement of ≥5% weight loss by W12 is a strong predictor of robust one-year lorcaserin responses in weight cardiovascular vital signs and glycemia.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Arena Pipeline Potential [View article]
    Abstract From an presenter at the ADA conference in Chicago
    Lorcaserin, (Belviq) a selective 5-HT2C agonist, was recently approved for weight management in conjunction with lifestyle modification in obese patients (BMI ≥30) and overweight patients (BMI ≥27) with at least one co-morbidity. In patients without diabetes, proportions achieving ≥5% weight loss and absolute weight loss at Week (W)52 for lorcaserin vs. placebo were 47 vs. 23% and 5.8 vs. 2.5kg respectively (MITT-LOCF). In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) results were 38 vs.16% and 4.7 vs.1.6kg respectively.

    To limit exposure and maximize benefit the predictive value for >5% W52 weight loss was assessed at W12. Patients not losing at least 5% at W12 (non-responders) should be discontinued.

    Proportions of responders without diabetes lorcaserin vs. placebo were 49.3 vs. 22.6%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders without diabetes was 10.6kg (23 lbs) with 86% and 50% achieving at least 5% and 10% weight loss respectively.

    Proportions of responders with T2DM lorcaserin vs. placebo were 35.9 vs. 11.5%. W52 weight loss in lorcaserin responders with T2DM was 9.3kg (20 lbs) with 71% and 36% achieving 5% and 10% weight loss. W52 reductions in FPG and A1C in lorcaserin responders with T2DM were 29.3mg/dL and 1.2%. W52 reductions in systolic and diastolic BP and heart rate were 3.4mmHg 2.5mmHg and 2.5BPM in lorcaserin responders without diabetes and 2.6mmHg 1.9mmHg and
    3.2BPM in lorcaserin responders with T2DM.

    Achievement of ≥5% weight loss by W12 is a strong predictor of robust one-year lorcaserin responses in weight cardiovascular vital signs and glycemia.
    Jun 30, 2013. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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