Gaucho

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

WHAT!!! Yea right the bottom is just around the corner. So what if the consumer is broke and they have no savings and they are in debt up to the ears and they owe more on their house than it is worth and they represent 70% of the economy. So what if the government has been lying about inflation and therefore the GDP numbers is BS. So what if the derivatives markets are over 14 times the world’s economy and is collapsing. So what, if the banks are not lending. So what if the housing market will keep falling for at least another 15% before reaching the typical long term price for housing. So what if the federal government has taken on over 2 trillion in additional responsibilities in just the last 6 months and will take another 2-3 trillion next year. So what if Obama is planning to take DEPRESSION actions to keep the country from rioting.

So what if the stock market is at about normal levels when viewed from the turn of last century and a typical bottom is less than 1/2 of the current value.

You are predicting that the market will rally based on tea leaves and some typical historic factors that do not apply in a once in a century event. Based on what economic fundamentals? If this stock market rallies to 10k I will jump in all the way on the short side since I like to bet against stupidity.

Needless to say I strongly disagree.

The American Crisis and the Case for an Inflationary Depression

The concept that we can get deflation and be unable to do anything about it is totally wrong. The FED can just print money to finance projects and give stimulus packages etc. The deflationary times that occurred during the great depression were a direct result of the FED tight money policies bank reserves. The government saying that we had deflation is a lie. Go to a site called shadow government stats we have been having inflation over 10% for the last few years yet the government has reported 3-4%. It is in the government’s best interest to understate inflation for programs such as Social Security. Inflation and higher interest rates will be the norm no matter what where the government sets the discount rate. The foreigners will not continue to buy us treasuries at the same rate that they have been and cannot buy the ever increasing amounts that the Fed is demanding.

I think gold and other depleted metals are a good inflation hedge since the cost to extract an ever depleted amount from poorer ore with ever increasing fuel costs will drive the prices much higher ‘in the long run’. So it you have a 5 year old, buy him a large silver or palladium bar for $10K and fully fund his college in 15 years. Things are not going to get better.

Bond Bubble Coming to an End? Prepare for the Bust

Government buying its own debt?

What the hell does that mean? I guess we could run a hundred trillion dollar debt and it will be all right since the government will be buying it.

I think that you are either talking about digital printing of money or taking on a huge amount of debt service paid buy you and me.

I believe that the author is correct we have reached an inflection point. The foreigners are not able and unwilling to buy more debt. This will not have a happy ending for the owners of this debt. I have hear estimate government is taking on a liabilities as high as 9 trillion or more. This is third world country actions and even the dollar and the US bonds will break under this pressure.

Citigroup Sees Gold Reaching $2000

With the disconnect between physical gold and the NIMEX it is evident that the FED is manipulating the price via its banks and the paper market. But with China looking to expand its real holdings of gold it will be fun to watch delivery demand for tons of Gold that they currently do not have. I wonder if the FED is willing to let go of all of its fort Knox holdings.

Shorting Treasuries: What's the Rationale?

I think that shorting government bonds is a good idea. But I do not see how these funds are going to provide the counter party shorted position. IE how do they pay for these shorted profits? I do admit that my knowledge is limited here. Could someone please explain?
One assumption that is being made is the foreign governments will continue to purchase US treasuries at the same rate that they are currently doing. The first problem with that assumption is that the US will not be importing at the same rate that they have historically. That means that the funds available to purchase US treasuries will not be available at the same level that they were before. The second problem is the ever increasing amounts of money that the US must borrow. Even if the foreign governments were will to keep purchasing Treasuries at the same level, not going to happen, US deficit is exploding. IN the end interest rates will explode and inflation is the only way out of this mess since default is unthinkable.

Post-Election Stock Massacre

I think that you backhanded slap against Obama is BS. For example GGP went from over $60 per share to below $1.00 per share during the Bush administration. AND NOW it drops from around 1 dollar to 36 cents since he was elected and you blame Obama.

Most of your posts are useless statistics and this one is worse than useless.

I would hate to see how much money you have lost for people.

Back at the Bottom

"it also means that unleveraged, long-term investors should be buying, since prospective returns are better. They must be able to suffer through further mark-to-market losses, and not have recession-sensitive jobs or businesses."

I AM AMAZED THAT YOU GUY ARE STILL YELLING BUY BUY BUY.

Don't you get it this is going to be a f-in depression! The market may not recover in real terms for 15 years. P/E ratios mean nothing when no one will be able to buy your product in the future. The SEC is the bitch for the hedge funds and naked shorting is going on in a massive scale not seen since 1929. Those shares will never be covered since the SEC will see no evil.

This is the greatest rip off of the typical American EVER. Their 401k/IRAs will be wiped out and their SS has been stolen with huge tax breaks for the wealthy.

Those 5k charting packages are worth nothing. The manipulators know how they work and are paying with the suckers who follow.

We have NOT seen the bottom and when we do it will be a very long time until stock/economy recovers. I see at least 7-10 years for the economy to recover and even then it will depend upon things being handled correctly by the FED. FAT CHANCE given their history

Stop thinking with a 1-2 year horizon that will not be long enough.

REITs: Spreads as Wide as a '70s Necktie

Well you took some statistics and threw them against the wall and came up with a conclusion.

I do not like the stopping of your chart in 1998. It is as if the recient years and yeilds have been realistic. You also do not look at the debt or the area that the reit is in like GGP.

Charts of the Day: Gold, and Baltic Dry Index

AND you believ ethe government when it says that the inflation rate is neutral???

If you do then I have a great condo in Miami, it will go up in value, TRUST ME.

Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street

I like the new ID called mountainXXXX. Very creative for a first time use to discount the impact of naked shorting.

Give me a break
"Basically, the SEC banning short-selling is socialism. Plain and simple."

You must think every one on this board is an idiot.
Again you suck at this issue so take you carpet bag and get lost

Gold ETFs: What Went Wrong With Conventional Wisdom?

I am seeing more and more negative comments about Gold. THis is a great counter indicator

This Is What Happens When Everything Is Undervalued

Yes technology has improved. The naked shorters are no longer Paper Hangers they just use digital imputs to fake shares instead of printing the fake stock certificates.

It is the same in that the naked shorters will have all the money and the rest of you suckers will loose all of your retirement.

It is the same in that we are entering a great depression.

It is the same that there wil ne no enforcement of the laws for fake shares.

Take your money off the table while you still can.

Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street

Take you carpet bag and go somewhere else.

We know you are a mouth piece for the hedge funds.

More On Rising Dollar, Declining Gold

What you are forgetting is that inflation is nearly 14% already. See shadow stats.com
Additionally the banks with the FEDs help have been driving the price of gold down so that the mom and pops will be forced to pay for the inflation tax. This cannot go on forever.

Could the Uptick Rule Save the U.S. from Financial Terrorism?

He is mixing the health of the economy with manipulation in the markets.
When manipulation gets to the point of where new companies with new technologies are crushed in our financial markets due to fake shares (naked shorting) and manipulation of the markets. We then are looking at this unregulated criminal activities participating in the destruction of the US economy.