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  • Why The Newest Short Thesis On Arena Is Dead Wrong And Should Be Ignored [View article]
    PE
    ""off-label combination of drugs,""
    There is no such animal unless the drug is a prohibited combination. Get your terms straight! Combinations are at the discretion of the prescribing doctor and are done all of the time.

    Off Label according to WIKI :""Off-label use is the practice of prescribing pharmaceuticals for an unapproved indication or in an unapproved age group, unapproved dose or unapproved form of administration..""
    Jun 14 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Reasons Arena Shorts May Have It Dead Wrong [View article]
    Well yea we do.

    It will compete with deliberate stranding on a desert island.
    Hundreds of fake weight loss products.
    Generics that cause you baby to be born without a brain.
    Stomach surgery
    Sewn in plastic tongue patches
    Wired shut jaws

    Especially since all of these have historically worked so well.
    Jun 13 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Newest Short Thesis On Arena Is Dead Wrong And Should Be Ignored [View article]
    PE It is always nice to see you take responsibility and taking you time and OURS to complement someone. You seem to do this frequently with over 1/2 of your posts. Instead of doing it by using the REC or a personnel message like most of the knowledgeable posters on SA. Kinda like a cheerleader who is a distraction to the game.

    I can't recommend this tactic enough.
    Jun 13 01:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Newest Short Thesis On Arena Is Dead Wrong And Should Be Ignored [View article]
    Well Maxicat
    "" Until they can change their patterns and habit and get major major support emotionally - nothing will change for them ""
    I suggest that since you are an expert in obesity you should write a book. After all there are thousands out there with there own opinion on how people should act and how they will lose weight.

    IMO they have been damaged by excessive sugar in their diets. Look at most foods and you will see HFCS and many different forms of sugar that has been steadily increasing over the years in direct correlation with the obesity epidemic. There is a great video by the author of " FAT CHANCE" that you can watch.

    The good thing about Belviq is that it turns off the cravings in people. This works very well for about 40% of the population. And they will stay on this for a very long time.

    Belviq is also excellent at controlling diabetic symptoms, regardless of weight loss, equivalent to most of the expensive drugs on the market for that purpose. That is why it will be a blockbuster. Given the 90% overlap between pre-diabetes/diabetes and obesity it dual effects are going to be well received and in my opinion it will become the first line of treatment.

    Apparently using Belviq with intermittent Phentermine will super charge the weight loss results. Many clinics have already stated that they will be prescribing this combination from the start. Papers will start appearing within the first three months on its effectiveness.
    Jun 12 05:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Newest Short Thesis On Arena Is Dead Wrong And Should Be Ignored [View article]
    Jtechkid That right be afraid VERY Afraid

    Cause you know a guy crossed the road and he got hit by a car SOOO the moral of the story is never cross a road. FEAR FEAR FEAR of the unknown so do not buy the stock right?

    Ignore the 8000 that were in the trials and some for 2 years and the most extensive heart monitoring ever. Mr. Kid id essentially saying do NOT invest in biotechs.
    Jun 12 01:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Healthy
    I would like to thank VVUS for failing to meet expectations soo badly that the bar has been placed incredibility low.

    Although the result was that Arena stock was held low and the shorts, confident in their position, maintained a very high short position. Now that Arena/Eisai has given guidance for 150 million this year they will blow the top of the WS estimates and create a short squeeze.
    Jun 11 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    BUT HEALTHY
    Didn't you correct me with this Arena sale ?
    ""One of the officers sold 83,750 shares on 5/21/2013 @ $8.00...leaving him w/15,000 shares remaining""

    So it is OK for you to list the ONLY Arena sale from a year ago and not for me to list 44 from the same time period for VVUS?
    Jun 11 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    HEALTHY

    OMG TWO whole sales in two years!! What are we to do PANIC PANIC bar the door Katy?


    NOW lets look at a company where management is running for the door and selling hand over fist VVUS. They have about 44 sales over the same period of time. NOW what company do you think management has faith in their stock?

    .
    Insider Relation Last Date Transaction Type OwnerType Shares Traded Last Price Shares Held
    CASAMENTO CHARLES J Director 08/20/2012 Sell direct 8,000 20.6325 66,000

    SHORTLIFFE LINDA M DAIRIKI Director 08/14/2012 Sell direct 18,000 22.5000 5,000

    LOGAN MARK B Director 08/14/2012 Sell direct 49,816 23.1285 53,000

    SHORTLIFFE LINDA M DAIRIKI Director 08/13/2012 Sell direct 20,000 22.0000 5,000

    LOGAN MARK B Director 08/13/2012 Sell direct 18,184 21.8093 53,000

    SHORTLIFFE LINDA M DAIRIKI Director 08/10/2012 Sell direct 25,000 21.5000 5,000

    MILLER MICHAEL PATRICK Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 30.3600 7,943

    MARSH GUY P Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 36,191 30.3600 2,074

    WILSON LELAND F Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 100,000 30.3600 119,112

    MORRIS TIMOTHY E Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 30.3600

    DAY WESLEY Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 16,800 30.3600

    TAM PETER Y Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 30.9500 37,629

    SLEBIR JOHN L Officer 07/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 10,000 30.3600 4,126

    MILLER MICHAEL PATRICK Officer 06/27/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 28.0760 7,943

    WILSON LELAND F Officer 06/27/2012 Automatic Sell direct 50,000 28.0000 119,112

    TAM PETER Y Officer 06/19/2012 Automatic Sell direct 20,000 27.2500 37,629

    TAM PETER Y Officer 06/18/2012 Automatic Sell direct 20,000 26.4500 37,629

    TAM PETER Y Officer 06/14/2012 Automatic Sell direct 236,250 25.2848 97,629

    TAM PETER Y Officer 06/14/2012 Automatic Sell direct 60,000 25.2500 37,629

    MILLER MICHAEL PATRICK Officer 06/12/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 25.0000 7,943

    WILSON LELAND F Officer 06/11/2012 Automatic Sell direct 50,000 25.1800 119,112

    LOGAN MARK B Director 03/16/2012 Sell direct 14,000 20.3181 48,000

    MARSH GUY P Officer 03/15/2012 Sell direct 6,605 20.3100 1,106

    CASAMENTO CHARLES J Director 03/12/2012 Sell direct 37,000 20.1410 61,000

    PERRY LEE Officer 03/09/2012 Sell direct 87,623 20.9558

    SHORTLIFFE LINDA M DAIRIKI Director 03/08/2012 Sell direct 52,000 21.5000

    MORRIS TIMOTHY E Officer 02/27/2012 Automatic Sell direct 50,000 22.9300

    MARSH GUY P Officer 02/27/2012 Automatic Sell direct 47,078 22.9300 7,711

    WILSON LELAND F Officer 02/27/2012 Automatic Sell direct 50,000 25.0000 118,271

    MORRIS TIMOTHY E Officer 02/24/2012 Automatic Sell direct 25,000 21.5500

    PERRY LEE Officer 02/23/2012 Automatic Sell direct 171,832 20.6900

    DAY WESLEY Officer 02/23/2012 Automatic Sell direct 79,958 20.6900 16,800

    MARSH GUY P Officer 02/23/2012 Automatic Sell direct 86,777 20.7000 7,711

    WILSON LELAND F Officer 02/23/2012 Automatic Sell direct 150,000 20.6900 118,271

    MORRIS TIMOTHY E Officer 02/23/2012 Automatic Sell direct 254,358 20.6900

    TAM PETER Y Officer 01/11/2012 Automatic Sell direct 27,014 12.0000 96,221

    TAM PETER Y Officer 01/10/2012 Automatic Sell direct 12,386 12.0000 123,235

    DAY WESLEY Officer 01/09/2012 Automatic Sell direct 30,000 11.5000 16,800

    PERRY LEE Officer 01/09/2012 Automatic Sell direct 39,700 11.7500

    DAY WESLEY Officer 11/11/2011 Sell direct 23,442 9.8690 16,800

    Read more: http://bit.ly/11U30Lr
    Jun 11 01:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    ARTLvr

    That is not True there has been ONE sale by one individual. The CEO has NOT sold any shares!! Please back up your unfounded assertion with evidence of these sales.
    Jun 11 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Well spencer:
    I have gotten a huge amount of information from a poster on IV who just happens to have run a trading desk and has 30 years of experience. He has been extremely information and spot on in his assertions. And yes I do know what a hedge ply is and no 60 million shorted shares are not hedged. You keep claiming that and yet there are not that may options. If there were the cost would be horrific.

    Hedges have bet against most small biotechs since many fail. In this case they refuse to back off especially since Qsymia was such a flop. They and WS is basing their predictions upon Qsymia's failure. They are going to get hurt big time when the average WS prediction for sales is exceeded by 10 times.

    The following is a post from another Arena investor that I have a lot more faith in for sales predictions:


    '''>>
    The following message was updated on 6/10/2013 9:05:28 AM.

    Why I'm Confident of Belviq's Success

    What gives me confidence that Belviq will be a success does not rely on the product (although a good product is indeed necessary for success), or Arena Pharma, a company that has recently shown that it cares little for shareholders. Rather, it's my own professional experience that drives my belief in Belviq's impending success.

    I was a senior executive for a large and well-known Japanese company in charge of the U.S. market, with a three-quarter billion dollar sales budget. I was there for almost 30 years and I was in a similar situation to Lonnel Coats at Eisai and we successfully launched several new products during that time. I currently chair the same company's non-profit foundation.

    The Japanese do not like pie-in-the sky sales forecasts. Accurate sales forecasting and making the projected sales budget is a religion, and excuses are not well-tolerated even if they're good excuses (there's no such thing).

    Conversely, going way over one's target (something that would be wildly celebrated in a U.S. company) is also an issue, reflecting poor forecasting, careless planning and a lack of understanding of the market and its potential. In other words, 25% over budget is just as big a "miss" as being 25% under. A little sandbagging is OK, but too much is frowned upon.

    Falling short of an internal sales goal at a typical Japanese company is bad enough, but missing a publicly-declared target is serious business. In a U.S. company, such shortfalls may cause some discomfort and embarrassment to its management, but in a Japanese company it is a source of intense humiliation and even corporate shame. Heads can roll.

    Informal as it was, a senior manager like Lonnel is not going to say "$150 million" on camera with his American CEO partner standing next to him without being pretty certain that it can be achieved. And you can be sure that this figure came from the planning room, not off the cuff. Yet, when all is said and done, he will be responsible. A major failure is not spread gently among the team----someone must be responsible, and Lonnel is it.

    In addition, he now has a track record. Aricept (Alzheimer's), while not limited to the U.S. market, is doing well here and accounts for 40% of Eisai's annual revenues. Aciphex (acid reflux) is off to a good start.

    It's almost mid-June. To hit $150 million during the remainder of calendar 2013, the product will need to have a fast start and the ramp will need to be steep, despite what Audet has said in the past.

    There is a lot of doubt surrounding whether Belviq can become a blockbuster drug or not and we, as investors, never have enough data or timely information. The EU situation was murky for months and the DEA dragged investors across an endless and barren landscape until they were raw, or they simply gave up. A possible silver lining is that the DEA fiasco has given Eisai more time to prime certain channels and there may be significant pent-up demand, although we have only anecdotal evidence to support that.

    We can speculate all day, and we do. But one thing is crystal clear: Eisai has confidence in Lonnel Coats-------and therefore so do I. That's huge, IMHO.

    Tomorrow, the counting of real orders begins, the only thing that really matters now. For the moment, Arena's work is done. All focus should now be on Eisai and the market partner's execution. Good luck everyone.
    Jun 11 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Spencer
    ""The FDA labels it as a risk. That happens for a reason""
    yes there us a reason WOMEN should not be trying to lose weight when the fetus is trying to gain weight! This is not a terribly difficulkt concept to understand.

    ""That reason is that there is a correlation between studies in rats and what happens in humans.""
    Yes there will be when you place a woman on a diet when she is pregnant. Imagine that, a woman loses at lot of weight during pregnancy and the baby is born underweight, whoda thunk it. So it does not take rocket science to figure that mother losing weight during pregnancy will result in an underweight baby. This would be especially true when they are taking between 4 and 40 times the dose that they should be. Wanna try taking 40 times the dose of any medication and see what happens during pregnancy?
    Jun 11 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Spencer:
    ""I am not a pom pom waver ""
    Spencer I have never called you a waver but with that said there is one who is very negative on Arena that is always complementing you posts.

    ""Both cause birth defects.""
    There is NO evidence that Belviq causes birth defects on humans. That is just NOT true and you are just speculating. There is evidence that Topiramate does cause substantial number of birth defects and you pointed out something like 17 times. Topiramate is dangerous especially early in the birth before most women are certain they are pregnant. It is wise IMO to stop all unnecessary meds when pregnancy is know including alcohol pain killers cigarettes etc. No one here is advocating women continuing Belviq when they are pregnant.
    Jun 11 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Jefferies upgrade TODAY

    Just exchanged message with a retired guy who used to run a trading desk. He said that the Funds borrow on a short term basis (days weeks maybe 1 month) and the interest they pay is the prevailing rate (currently 40%) at time of the negotiated borrow and that rate is calculated against the daily stock price. When the term ends they must enter a new tern at the prevailing rate.

    So the carrying cost of shorted Arena stock is astronomical. Especially when there were over 40 million short going into the last Adcom. The average short position is in around 4 dollars and now they must pay 40% rate on $8.50 plus. Given the Reverse conversion and the 10 months of carrying this stock they have IMO spent all the money they gained when they originally shorted the stock.

    Given there are now nearly 60 million short and that represent 28% of the float they are in deep crap.
    Jun 11 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Discounts And Impacts On Revenue [View article]
    Healthy
    ""These drugs will not be given for vanity purposes."
    Well PhenFen had around 50% was given out for vanity purposes. And it was never tested as extensively as Belviq. Belviq has tested 8000 patients in 3 trials and has done extensive heart monitoring and some patients were in trials for up to two years. The conclusion was it is safe and FDA approved and the FDA wants to test son children as young as 5. So how can you make a definitive statement that at the doctors discretion will not prescribe this drug for people outside the BMI recommended numbers?
    Jun 11 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Study Of Arena's Lorcaserin Against The Backdrop Of Several Anti-Obesity Mechanisms [View article]
    PE here is a post from the IV board that should open some eyes:

    by

    VPInvestor

    report abuse recommend
    The following message was updated on 6/10/2013 9:05:28 AM.

    Why I'm Confident of Belviq's Success

    What gives me confidence that Belviq will be a success does not rely on the product (although a good product is indeed necessary for success), or Arena Pharma, a company that has recently shown that it cares little for shareholders. Rather, it's my own professional experience that drives my belief in Belviq's impending success.

    I was a senior executive for a large and well-known Japanese company in charge of the U.S. market, with a three-quarter billion dollar sales budget. I was there for almost 30 years and I was in a similar situation to Lonnel Coats at Eisai and we successfully launched several new products during that time. I currently chair the same company's non-profit foundation.

    The Japanese do not like pie-in-the sky sales forecasts. Accurate sales forecasting and making the projected sales budget is a religion, and excuses are not well-tolerated even if they're good excuses (there's no such thing).

    Conversely, going way over one's target (something that would be wildly celebrated in a U.S. company) is also an issue, reflecting poor forecasting, careless planning and a lack of understanding of the market and its potential. In other words, 25% over budget is just as big a "miss" as being 25% under. A little sandbagging is OK, but too much is frowned upon.

    Falling short of an internal sales goal at a typical Japanese company is bad enough, but missing a publicly-declared target is serious business. In a U.S. company, such shortfalls may cause some discomfort and embarrassment to its management, but in a Japanese company it is a source of intense humiliation and even corporate shame. Heads can roll.

    Informal as it was, a senior manager like Lonnel is not going to say "$150 million" on camera with his American CEO partner standing next to him without being pretty certain that it can be achieved. And you can be sure that this figure came from the planning room, not off the cuff. Yet, when all is said and done, he will be responsible. A major failure is not spread gently among the team----someone must be responsible, and Lonnel is it.

    In addition, he now has a track record. Aricept (Alzheimer's), while not limited to the U.S. market, is doing well here and accounts for 40% of Eisai's annual revenues. Aciphex (acid reflux) is off to a good start.

    It's almost mid-June. To hit $150 million during the remainder of calendar 2013, the product will need to have a fast start and the ramp will need to be steep, despite what Audet has said in the past.

    There is a lot of doubt surrounding whether Belviq can become a blockbuster drug or not and we, as investors, never have enough data or timely information. The EU situation was murky for months and the DEA dragged investors across an endless and barren landscape until they were raw, or they simply gave up. A possible silver lining is that the DEA fiasco has given Eisai more time to prime certain channels and there may be significant pent-up demand, although we have only anecdotal evidence to support that.

    We can speculate all day, and we do. But one thing is crystal clear: Eisai has confidence in Lonnel Coats-------and therefore so do I. That's huge, IMHO.

    Tomorrow, the counting of real orders begins, the only thing that really matters now. For the moment, Arena's work is done. All focus should now be on Eisai and the market partner's execution. Good luck everyone.
    http://bit.ly/12Cn10E
    Jun 11 03:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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