Gaucho

Not Yet Time to Buy Homebuilders

You said "If you are a long-term investor, how can you NOT buy a sector that is down 75-90%????? Sure, wait, wait till you hear good news. Wait till the sector is up 50%. Don't believe me? ITB fell to about 13.3 in January. Now it's in a trading range between 17 and 20. So, already you've missed as much as 50% of the gain. Not yet time? As a long-term investor, now is precisely the time. Did I catch the exact low? Of course not. I bought at 16."


You should buy a sector that is down 60-70% since much of that runup in price has happened in the last 3-4 years.

The bottom of the housing fall will not happen for at least 2 years. Most of the recent run-up was the result of fools like you thinking this housing crisis was going to end by the second 1/2 of this year.

This is a long term bear market and stagflation is arriving now. Keep buying so when you finally capitulate I will get the most gains.

Not Yet Time to Buy Homebuilders

We are in 100% agreement. This bubble took 5-8 years to build and it is not going to go away within 1 year. I think that the housing market is dead until at least 2011. It may take longer depending on how much the economy tanks. I think thatr realistically we could see a recession lasting 7-10 years. We will get sucker rallies like today whwre every one want to rush in and buy. Take this as another opportunity to short.