Gaucho

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

WHAT!!! Yea right the bottom is just around the corner. So what if the consumer is broke and they have no savings and they are in debt up to the ears and they owe more on their house than it is worth and they represent 70% of the economy. So what if the government has been lying about inflation and therefore the GDP numbers is BS. So what if the derivatives markets are over 14 times the world’s economy and is collapsing. So what, if the banks are not lending. So what if the housing market will keep falling for at least another 15% before reaching the typical long term price for housing. So what if the federal government has taken on over 2 trillion in additional responsibilities in just the last 6 months and will take another 2-3 trillion next year. So what if Obama is planning to take DEPRESSION actions to keep the country from rioting.

So what if the stock market is at about normal levels when viewed from the turn of last century and a typical bottom is less than 1/2 of the current value.

You are predicting that the market will rally based on tea leaves and some typical historic factors that do not apply in a once in a century event. Based on what economic fundamentals? If this stock market rallies to 10k I will jump in all the way on the short side since I like to bet against stupidity.

Needless to say I strongly disagree.

Could the Uptick Rule Save the U.S. from Financial Terrorism?

He is mixing the health of the economy with manipulation in the markets.
When manipulation gets to the point of where new companies with new technologies are crushed in our financial markets due to fake shares (naked shorting) and manipulation of the markets. We then are looking at this unregulated criminal activities participating in the destruction of the US economy.

You Knew the Short Squeeze Was Coming

"this month 26 out of 34 companies (76%) have beaten expectations, slightly better than this time last quarter, when 73% of companies had beaten." Beaten what a revised reduction of an estimated 50% fall in earnings?

WHAT CAUSED THIS POP WAS COX WARNING about NAKED shorting!!! He put the fear of god into the shorts. WFC would have missed earning except for an accounting trick. The oil price fell 5 dollars that day> GIVE me a break The producer inflation rate is at 20% and the home builders have the lowest sentiment ever. The naked shorting is much much larger than most investors ever dreamed.


This is a must listen for stock mrket investors.
www.financialsense.com...

You may want to take all your money out of the market!

Worst Dow June Since Depression

Well lets see "worst since the great depression", what does that tell you about the current economic conditions? I think that the conditions are the worst we have ever seen. Depression may be the term that will best fit the future.

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

RBS IS NOT THE ONLY ONE PREDICTING A MARKET MELTDOWN


www.telegraph.co.uk/mo...

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo warn 'delusional' investors on stocks
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 1:58am BST 15/04/2008
"Wall Street faces the growing risk of an equities bloodbath in coming months as the credit crunch spreads to the wider economy and earnings crumble, according to a pair of grim reports issued by Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo."...

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

I am surprised that a collapse did not happen before this. The FED did its dance by lowering the rates .75% followed by another .5% in an emergency meeting to avoid a collapse. They are now out of interest rate ammo.
This time the bankers and the wall street BS artists have been saying that the bottom of the real-estate market will be in June July of this year. It is becoming apparent that this is just the first ledge of a huge cliff and the real-estate market will plummet much, much, more. The same BS artist that have been saying that we are not in a recession or that it will be a small recession.
The suckers out there are starting to wake up and realize that the BS by the pundits was just that, BS. These pundits make their money from the suckers, sorry investors, who put their money in the market. If they leave now how will the Wall Street geniuses make their million dollar bonuses when their companies are losing money?
A saying I once hear that rings true, “If you are going to panic then panic before everyone else does”.
People need to realize that the FEDs inflation numbers are BS and the real numbers are closer to 10%.
People need to realize that the oil prices by themselves will trigger a huge recession just like they did in the 70s.
People need to realize that the idiot president has run up 4 trillion and counting budget deficit and has no wiggle room to counter act a recession.
People need to realize that the housing market will fall another 25% before it starts to bottom.
People need to realize that the average guy has no saving because he has never seen a severe recession.
AND yet you commenter’s criticize someone who is telling it straight. You will soon realize what the term BAG HOLDER really means!

Economic Slowdown: Employment Holding Up Well

FXTADER is right. The government is lying. The Inflation rate is 5% and above while the government keeps saying it is 2.6%!!! I am not blind and do not believe that crap for one moment. We have had two back to back quarters of negative growth if the real numbers are plugged in.

The housing market continues to plunge at an accelerating rate. This will continue through at least 09. Keep believing that crap and buy financials and you will be bankrupt soon. Did anyone notice that credit card debt went up an astounding 5% in March alone! That is due to the resets on the ARMS and people using credit cards to prop up their finances. This cannot continue for more than 3-4 months before their finances hit the wall along with the economy. It is going to get much much worse. The FED cannot keep this up all year even if an election is on the way. They are blowing more money into the I BANKS than the Iraq war and they still will not lend to each other.

Why I'm Not Worried About the Market

Keep smoking that good stuff!!! Keep singing don't worry be happy as the plane loses power and the pilot is saying his last prayers. Hey fool if the market is going down find the dogs and bet against them. Don't fight the market it has a long way to go before bottom. It isn’t going to come back in 1 year like it did in the past.
This crap has been building for years and will not just go away any time soon. The housing market needs to fall at least 20% more which will devastate the wealth effect and place so many houses on the markets at below construction prices. The housing industry will be devastated. The default credit swaps are 45 Trillion and the Derivatives market is over 400 Trillion about 14 times the worlds economy. This is not the 160 Billion S&L crisis your daddy talks about.
The fed is acting like a cheer leader while passing out life vests to the banks. All the time saying, ignore reality and just listen to what I am telling you.
WE ARE IN DEEP SHIT!!! It aint going to get better no matter how much the FED jawbones the problem. No matter how many times some "anonymous” source says that a solution to ABK/MBI is going to be announced in two days. It has been two months and where is the solution?? Oh yea next week at the latest;) Watch closely as I shuffle the CDO/derivative insurance pea to another company and the problem just disappears.

And before you bash gold take these points into account.
1. The US is not the only player in the world economy like in the 1980s.
2. China is the largest consumer of gold now.
3. China has inflation of 7+%, and Indian Inflation and European inflation and US inflation and Dubai/Middle East inflation.
4. Gold and Silver ETFs in US, China and India and others to be announced.
5. China and other countries moving from the dollar to other reserves including gold.
6. Gold production expected to fall 1-4% over the next two years a demand soars.
7. GLD ETC is now the 3rd or 4th largest gold reserve in the world.

Just because the US M3 money supply is growing @ 16% plus this year not including the billions being dumped into the banks and the estimated 1 trillion the FED will pump into the economy this year excluding the expected 500 Billion deficit. And the housing values continue to fall as a hard asset. And oh yea the expected $4.00 per gallon of gas this summer. Inflation, What inflation, we got no Inflation, aint gotta show you no stinking Inflation.
NOW why would you want to go and buy gold?