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  • How Wide Is Apple's iOS Revenue Moat? [View article]
    The interesting thing about the 6 countries you mentioned (data: world bank):

    Population: IOS: 553 million (27%), Android: 1553 million (73%)
    Global income: IOS: 13.4 Billion (41%) , Android: 19.4 Billion (59%)
    PerCapita Income: IOS: 24,250; Android: 12,642.
    These percentages are, btw, are changing fast, with the availability of large screen iphones (China, UK, even USA). Neither this accounts for the momentum generated by Pay and Watch, that we are just starting to see.

    So, basically, addressable market for IOS developers is 2X more prone to spend in apps. For that, they must develop 3 or 4 versions (including tablets, all of them automatically managed by Xcode: in itself, a much cleaner and friendly development environment than Android alternatives). Most of the code is suitable for desktop apps, too. And the watch, of course.

    Android developers, instead, for half the expected revenue, must be aware of thousands of flavors of Android (screen size, performance, features, versions of the OS), in an almost blind design process. And the code is basically useless for windows apps development.

    Need to say more?.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung launches S6 with metal/glass body, 2K display, new fingerprint sensor [View news story]
    These Samesung guys are so unimaginative and shameless, that they even copy the bad features of iPhones: the headphone jack at the bottom, the loudspeakers wrongly oriented...

    I thought the problem of Iphones were:
    - a useless, 'pure-gimick' 64 bit processor
    - not expandable, no SD cards
    - non-repleaceable batteries.

    Then, after years copying everything else except the above, they just do exactly the same.

    I wonder how this phone will solve the battery life with: the memory management issues inherent of android, the absurdly high pixel count (impossible to discern by users), and the thin device feature they, once again, copied from the last iphone.

    About "samsung Pay" (wonderfully original name): would you really trust your money to this combo of one company (Samsung) that, besides commanded by a convicted thief, has built an empire stealing the intelectual property of every competitor- specially americans-, and a second one (Google) who's business is spying you to sell your data to third parties?
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Beats Estimates, But Cash Burn And Debt Load Are Alarming [View article]
    Im a rookie in this area, so sorry in advance for these basic questions, but could somebody explain me the following:

    - Even in these difficult times, RIG has a backlog of two years assured.
    - For I can't recall how many consecutive Q's, the company has beaten estimates, but still goes down every time.
    - At the prices of these contracts, the company is still winning money, at a healthy 39% GM.
    - RIG is preparing itself, with sizable investments, for the rebound of oil prices that sooner or later will come. The company is criticized because of their old rigs, and then criticized for updating the fleet.
    - If circumstantial negative cashflow turns to be a concern, there are rather easy measures to stop the leakage: reduce or cut the divs (as they did), or just postpone those investments. If they are not doing it, my guess is not because the management is plain stupid.
    - The big concern of unsustainable cashflows, paired with difficult credit, shown as here as an inevitable fate, is almost an implied announcement of end-of-business. The market is really thinking a company as big as RIG will go bankruptcy?

    So, why so much negativity with a company already trading at less than half of its book value, and absurd P/E levels?
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Focus On Apple Watch Edition Pricing [View article]
    Bottom line: compounded ASP will be close to $680, or higher.
    Sport: $370 average, 60% share.
    Watch: from $550 to $1,000. 35%
    Edition: $10,000 and change. 5%
    No less than 3.7B revenues, just starting in Q3.
    Margins: the highest of any Apple product.

    Grab AAPL stock while you can.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    "Assuming a volume somewhere in between the annual output of Porsche and BMW, Apple could achieve a passenger car market share of around 1-2% over time."
    Given this low marketshare, I predict Blair will keep shorting the name in 2020.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Apple Price Target Appears Unrealistic [View article]
    Just one more thing:

    Your numbers of cashflow are based in a net income a just shy of 44B for FY15. But TTM net income is already 44.5 B. Looks like FY15 will be more like 50Billion. If you apply your 27% growth rate in incomes based in that 50B, that would lead to some added 23B by 2017.

    Right now, even if they were not issuing debt for buybacks, and paying divs and capex, AAPL would still have a free cash flow of some 38B, and that is expected to increase enormously in the coming Q's. With that money, there is nothing better than investing this in AAPL, imho. Via buybacks. If they don't, the EV ratios would be even more absurd than now.

    If AAPL remains undervalued against S&P, and the pipeline of new products is just slightly successful, I think the buybacks could be even higher of what Icahn says. Even so, and even having the cash available, i'm not necessarily against some debt, that in the long term will mean a better ROC, because of a bit of leverage it implies. If they are able to find juicy investment projects (the one they have now is their own shares).
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Apple Price Target Appears Unrealistic [View article]
    I'm missing a couple of important related issues in your article:

    1- Icahn says that they should apply a 20% tax, instead of the 26.x% of Apple "effective tax", because the money is not specifically declared as intended to be reinvested abroad, but eventually returned at some time. As does Google, for example, paying bout 20% of taxes. So, Apple already pays a higher tax because an eventual return of that money, and thus, a lower tax should be applied once they do so.
    If I understand this correctly, this is in contradiction with your article. If there is already an added payment of 6%, the effective tax of the 14% proposal would be 8%. Also the math shouldn't be that simple: I guess that tax rate is applied to the money earned abroad, not to the whole earnings, all of which shouldn't be as simple as applying it to the returning cash. If Apple, instead, effectively invest big money abroad (in a car plant among other things, maybe?), the tax rate payed already accounts that, so, nothing else to pay.

    2- Apple balance sheet already piles 23.3 Billion in deferred taxes liabilities. If it uses any money in taxes for repatriation (that, according to the above, would be less than this deferred line), this huge deferred amount should go to one-time earnings, right? Or perhaps this may be another way to account the same that Icahn is telling above?

    If these issues are correct, then the cost of repatriation if much lower than what you say in your article, I guess. But honestly, I'm not sure of this. Would be nice to have some insight on these points.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Apple Won't Acquire Tesla - And Here Is Why [View article]
    And Ferraris were displayed at Moscone center for the CarPlay launch.

    And Ive visits the construction site of campus 2 in a Jeep (a Wrangler I suppose), which, btw, I think it must be the only acceptable american car design for his industrial design standards, all others in his "shit I hate" list. Granted, Tesla's model S design is very close to some Mercedes or the Jaguar XJ.

    I think Apple will make agreements with Tesla to use and expand the charging network, and with FCA for a joint state-of-the-art fab in China. The CR, electric and electrifying, is a sure thing imho. Give them some 3 yrs.
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Expect Another Small Dividend Raise [View article]
    - Dividends are good for stock. Buybacks are better for options. I mostly play options (and so do Apple's managers, btw). So, I prefer buybacks.
    - All in all, I think Apple invests money better than myself. So, I prefer buybacks.
    - Even having the cash from dividends, it would be hard to me to find a better investment than AAPL anyway. So, I prefer the short route: buybacks.
    - AAPL growths more than average S&P, but it's valued lower. While WS keeps holding such a low P/E for Apple (not to talk of real EV, discounting cash), buybacks are a much better business, imho.
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Apple's New iPhones Initiate Peak Android? [View article]
    So, the numbers of CIRP are good when they backup your wishes, but not the facts?
    There are more than 395M iphones in use. There are also less older iphones than what you say (in fact, there is blatant contradiction in your article regarding usage and composition, otherwise, a good part of the iphones sold in the last year would have simply disappeared). And the difference is more ex-android switchers than what you think, and a huge pending demand for the coming Q's. The catalysts for IOS are just starting: Pay, heath, home kit and enterprise agreements with IBM will be just staggering. IOS is a snowball, and the only one not recognizing it is you.

    There are also less than 1.6Billion real android phones in use. The rest of the androids you mention are piled unused in drawers all over the world. Or in the pockets of poor people in low-income countries, needing more than one phone to take advantage of pre-paid carrier plans (i've seen people carrying three, even four phones for that purpose). Or in almost free devices of minimal use that engross the android stats but shouldn't be counted as phones at all.

    What's unbearable of your articles is the way you present your wishes as facts, just because you hate a company that simply destroyed your beloved BBRY. That's my last answer to any of your posts, or your articles for that matter. You lost every millimeter of credibility. Enough.
    Feb 17, 2015. 04:43 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Announces A 80% Reduced Dividend In 2015, And CEO Steve Newman Is Stepping Down [View article]
    Then you have to edit the article also, including the very thesis that a small dividend cut won't hurt the stock even more. Which it shouldn't, even being the large cut it was, imho.
    Feb 16, 2015. 10:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Pride Comes Before A Fall [View article]
    511 vs 59, the argument is like: "eat shit, billions of flies can't be wrong".
    You can do it better than that.
    Feb 14, 2015. 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch ASPs: Poll Reveals A Hint [View article]
    I also believe the watch was designed like a basic chassis, that you may upgrade in the future. That's why the core eith cpu and sensors is round and independent from the frame. The screen is as good as it make sense, right now.
    Your gold timepiece will last years; perhaps upgrades of the edition will be done at a discount, or free.
    Feb 12, 2015. 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch ASPs: Poll Reveals A Hint [View article]
    The dynamics of the watch will be closer to the ipad than the iphone. And so, sale numbers will be similar, I think. That said, it's an even more personal device. In the end, almost every apple user may want one, some perhaps even more than one.
    Feb 12, 2015. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch ASPs: Poll Reveals A Hint [View article]
    Yes, I think the ASP will be well over 450 usually considered in other articles. But not as high as 750, of course. My guess is close to 550. (and I still found it quite cheap, btw. Any good sapphire watch costs more than that, for example).
    It seems I'm even more bullish on the watch than the very Icahn (as seen in his last letter). I think it will be Apple's second revenue source within 3 yrs. Higher ASP, margin and volume than the iPad. And higher market for accessories and apps, too.
    I guess the main concern could be if Apple will be able to deliver the steel collection -obviously the highest demand- in enough volume, due to required sapphire supply. The other thing could be the logistics of getting the demand right: 3 collections, 2 sizes, 2 tones of metal, dozens of loops: a lot of choices to be supplied.
    Feb 12, 2015. 05:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment