Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pbanados' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Apple Watch Success Not Limited To Unit Sales [View article]
    Frost, don't you have something useful to do with your life other than bashing Apple everywhere? People of Apple Insider got tired of you, so you now are doing the same here?
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Time To Buy Offshore Drillers At Bargain Valuations? [View article]
    If RIG is scrapping 35 yr old rigs, shouldn't those be already fully depreciated? Meaning that the scrapping of old rigs should have no impact in book value? Do you have a detail of book value of each rig in order to dismiss this 0.4 book value (and with a significant part of it being cash) as meaningless?
    I don't really know about this in detail, but given the age of the rigs being scrapped, I believe that the write downs may be related with goodwill instead.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Will Scrap 18 Floaters - Will It Make A Difference? [View article]
    Which would be the average age of the RIG fleet after the scrapping of those 18 floaters?
    Apr 6, 2015. 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung gets rave reviews for Galaxy S6 [View news story]
    Apple bears (you probably know who I mean), in their restless Apple bashing, say that Android, and specially Samsung will defeat Iphone because they are more attractive:
    a) higher market share given their lower ASP.
    b) upgradable memory
    c) replaceable battery
    d) water-proof
    e) big screen.

    It ends up that this S6 is a) more expensive, and then shamelessly: b) has the fixed memory fandroids laughed about iphone, c)non repleaceble battery - same thing- d) no waterproof anymore, and e) has no larger screen advantage compared to Iphone 6/6+.

    Instead of that, it has unnecesary high resolution and multiple cores SoC that will sure drain battery much sooner than in iPhones (here comes the true wall-hanger).
    Then it has a, yes, beautiful, but already abandoned glass back design. That was discarded on iphones because of it was more prone to break. But Samsung can't copy a (even nicer) all-aluminum design, because it has not the expertise and capability of Apple for that.
    More expensive; no hardware advantages; a sub-par, virus infested SO; poor ecosystem; and a hated, un-American, thieves-owned brand. How this phone can be succesful?
    Apr 1, 2015. 04:21 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple talking Web TV service for fall launch [View news story]
    I was over simplifying, to be concise: Beats generates a bit over a billion "revenues" per year, although this will probably increase after Apple ownership. Margins are high, but not enough to qualify in the "billion" profits group. Still. Sooner or later, they will make a good-sounding can (hint for Apple: get Dr Fang Bian of HiFi-Man on board!).

    All others mentioned do make over a billion per year profits.
    And yes, it was quite a good acquisition: 3X sales is very cheap. Iovine and the audio streaming were basically for free.
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple talking Web TV service for fall launch [View news story]

    Perhaps you haven't heard the news. In about a month, Apple will start selling a tiny device called Watch, so profitable, that within a year or so they will pile earnings with that device alone that will be about half of all what Google -the second largest S&P market cap company- does.

    Btw, they also have some petty-cash incomes, like Beats, apps, peripherals. Petty-cash meaning a few billion dollars each.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Age Of Radio Bedevils PCs And Tablets Alike [View article]
    Homekit, iBeacons.
    In fact, it could be argued that Apple has the most advanced platform for IOT right now. The only one truly integrated to an ecosystem, for example.
    Mar 13, 2015. 04:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Apple: Embracing Personalized Technology With A Luxury Twist [View article]
    @pk, julie
    That's right. Task for Google. Apple will just tell you the consequences of doing it.
    What a nice way to sum up all the current tech situation in a short joke. Thx, pk!
    Mar 13, 2015. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Most Brilliant Move Is Not The Watch [View article]
    Apparently the people of Oxford, Stanford, Cornell, UCLA, Mount Sinai do not agree with your assesment. I would, at least, give them the benefit of doubt. I'm not sure they aren't 'serious researchers'.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Won't Impact The Stock Right Away [View article]
    You should check your maths Dana: 'Even a "home run" volume of 50 million watches still means incremental revenue of $10 billion'.
    At an ASP of no less than $540, or higher is the share of stainless steel models is over 25% (as I think it will be), that home run would be more like 27 billion, not 10... and that's not counting the sales of additional straps, that will also be significant.
    Within a year timeframe, I think some 25 to 27B revenues are perfectly possible. Which means that this tiny watch will have revenues that would be something like one of every three airplanes Boeing sells in a year, at higher margins... and that will make Apple the world's largest watch maker by far.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Wide Is Apple's iOS Revenue Moat? [View article]
    The interesting thing about the 6 countries you mentioned (data: world bank):

    Population: IOS: 553 million (27%), Android: 1553 million (73%)
    Global income: IOS: 13.4 Billion (41%) , Android: 19.4 Billion (59%)
    PerCapita Income: IOS: 24,250; Android: 12,642.
    These percentages are, btw, are changing fast, with the availability of large screen iphones (China, UK, even USA). Neither this accounts for the momentum generated by Pay and Watch, that we are just starting to see.

    So, basically, addressable market for IOS developers is 2X more prone to spend in apps. For that, they must develop 3 or 4 versions (including tablets, all of them automatically managed by Xcode: in itself, a much cleaner and friendly development environment than Android alternatives). Most of the code is suitable for desktop apps, too. And the watch, of course.

    Android developers, instead, for half the expected revenue, must be aware of thousands of flavors of Android (screen size, performance, features, versions of the OS), in an almost blind design process. And the code is basically useless for windows apps development.

    Need to say more?.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung launches S6 with metal/glass body, 2K display, new fingerprint sensor [View news story]
    These Samesung guys are so unimaginative and shameless, that they even copy the bad features of iPhones: the headphone jack at the bottom, the loudspeakers wrongly oriented...

    I thought the problem of Iphones were:
    - a useless, 'pure-gimick' 64 bit processor
    - not expandable, no SD cards
    - non-repleaceable batteries.

    Then, after years copying everything else except the above, they just do exactly the same.

    I wonder how this phone will solve the battery life with: the memory management issues inherent of android, the absurdly high pixel count (impossible to discern by users), and the thin device feature they, once again, copied from the last iphone.

    About "samsung Pay" (wonderfully original name): would you really trust your money to this combo of one company (Samsung) that, besides commanded by a convicted thief, has built an empire stealing the intelectual property of every competitor- specially americans-, and a second one (Google) who's business is spying you to sell your data to third parties?
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Beats Estimates, But Cash Burn And Debt Load Are Alarming [View article]
    Im a rookie in this area, so sorry in advance for these basic questions, but could somebody explain me the following:

    - Even in these difficult times, RIG has a backlog of two years assured.
    - For I can't recall how many consecutive Q's, the company has beaten estimates, but still goes down every time.
    - At the prices of these contracts, the company is still winning money, at a healthy 39% GM.
    - RIG is preparing itself, with sizable investments, for the rebound of oil prices that sooner or later will come. The company is criticized because of their old rigs, and then criticized for updating the fleet.
    - If circumstantial negative cashflow turns to be a concern, there are rather easy measures to stop the leakage: reduce or cut the divs (as they did), or just postpone those investments. If they are not doing it, my guess is not because the management is plain stupid.
    - The big concern of unsustainable cashflows, paired with difficult credit, shown as here as an inevitable fate, is almost an implied announcement of end-of-business. The market is really thinking a company as big as RIG will go bankruptcy?

    So, why so much negativity with a company already trading at less than half of its book value, and absurd P/E levels?
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Focus On Apple Watch Edition Pricing [View article]
    Bottom line: compounded ASP will be close to $680, or higher.
    Sport: $370 average, 60% share.
    Watch: from $550 to $1,000. 35%
    Edition: $10,000 and change. 5%
    No less than 3.7B revenues, just starting in Q3.
    Margins: the highest of any Apple product.

    Grab AAPL stock while you can.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    "Assuming a volume somewhere in between the annual output of Porsche and BMW, Apple could achieve a passenger car market share of around 1-2% over time."
    Given this low marketshare, I predict Blair will keep shorting the name in 2020.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment