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  • BlackBerry: Will This Be The Quarter Of Hardware Rebirth? [View article]
    I agree. This android move may not be as bad as it sounds. In fact, maybe it is BBRY's only hope to reach the 10M devices for break-even. If security features could be ported to android M. Still a feeble point to invest in this company, imho.
    On the other hand, if those features were so difficult to implement, or BBRY were offering some unique IP in this, the company probably would have been sold at least a year ago.
    Jun 17, 2015. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Ask Yourself 2 Questions [View article]
    Are you aware of the fact that almost every format change in mac mini, imac, macbook, mac pro, iphone, ipads and now watch won red dot awards, do you?
    Is it that your argument to stay long (the "foolish reason" of this article)?

    Regarding software: almost every category BBRY is working on is the hot area of development of AAPL, MSFT, GOOG and IBM, and so:
    Mkt cap: BBRY:4.9 B. Competition: 1620 B (330x)
    Profits: BBRY: -0.3B Competition: 94 B (infinite)
    Employees: BBRY 6200. Competition: > 690000 ( 111x)
    Profit per employee: BBRY: -0.05M AAPL: 0.49M (no comments)
    Cash (the beloved argument): BBRY: 3.2B Competition: 381B (119X)

    I would say, the prospects of BBRY software don't look vey good.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: One Has To Think The Bigger Picture [View article]
    I'm basically skipping bjnflicks comments (good, but too much, too many, too often), but he has a point regarding the article: WWDC is a developers event, not a product release event.
    To be honest, I was a bit disappointed with the keynote, mostly because of the poor performance of most presenters. But once i started seeing the technical conferences, i'm impressed again. Apple is cooking an unsurmountable advantage, that's getting bigger year after year, and with a touching elegance in all of what they do. I would recommend the author to take a deep look of what's really happening at Apple in those WWDC videos, and not just the keynote.
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:42 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Adding Android To Phones: Desperation Or Genius? [View article]
    Sad delusional comments. A couple of weeks, just like now, many of you were bashing bears for a supposed short, as to be scared of loosing their money. When the stock was almost 12% higher.

    In june 2007, when iphone 1 was out, BBRY stock traded at $66. Just a month prior to Iphone3 in july 2008, it went up to $138. By christmas that year it was at $40. Now barely more than $9 with over $5 of those being cash. In the meantime, marketshare of BBRY in USA smartphones went from over 45% to less than 1%.

    People now are holding hopes in switching to the worst possible environment for a phone business. Nobody except samsung wins money with android. And even them, the serial copiers, are selling half of what they did prior to the availability of large screen iphones. The android ecosystem is the very antithesis of all what you love about BBRY, starting from security.
    The other two pillars of hope are the ever postponed promises of Chen, and a supposedly magical resurgence on IoT backbone services, based on an aging technology thought for other purposes, of a company without resources or human capital or a way to attract them, and in a business that's being the hot area of investment of none other than the giants of IBM, MSFT, GOOG and AAPL... that collectively have about a thousand times more resources than BBRY to win in this IoT war, and that cluster the brightest minds in the tech business (while BBRY is firing them, or desperately going to debt to finance dilution of stock options to keep the last ones that remain).

    BBRY reached the point where its whole market value is less of what they lost in the last fiscal year. In fact, the EV is barely a little more of what they lost just in the last Q... with almost all the money in cash and short term investments, ready for the speculation of a possible take-over. Face it guys, a take-over is the only hope for this company. Either way, it will not exist in less than two years from now. Perhaps even one.

    Before you bash me as a "short", I'm not. One must be crazy to short a company with 65% of its market value in cash. But must be also equally crazy to invest in such a dying company.
    Jun 12, 2015. 12:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: WWDC15 And The Evolution Into The First Trillion Dollar Market Cap Company [View article]
    Then short it, please.
    Jun 9, 2015. 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple reveals Music service, News app, iPad multitasking, watchOS 2 [View news story]
    I agree, Andreas. Now, if the streaming were in a lossless format, we would be talking something different. This is the one weak point of Spotify, imho.
    Regarding the keynote: content was fairly interesting, although the AppleTV update was a big miss, I think it was thought to be the column of this keynote, until the agreements failed.
    But gosh, can't they get someone less boring that Lynch, the woman of Pay, or even the lack of rhythm and fluidity of Cue's presentation? And when we will see Angela, btw?
    Jun 8, 2015. 08:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: May Has Come And Gone And No $140; Where We Stand [View article]
    Weekly and monthly options OI. If you don't understand that, worse, if you don't want to understand that, you have no clue of the stock short term behaviour. So, you shouldn't be writing your short term "predictions".
    Jun 1, 2015. 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    You really have fallen in love with yourself, don't you?
    May 28, 2015. 07:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is History [View article]
    Given that:

    - the smartphone business is in extinction, and no, BB10 is NOT the solution -BBRY is still loosing 150,000 users monthly just in USA-; and NO, the passport is not the life-vest also, it is just a absurd monstrosity of a device,

    - the security and MDM is also a business ready to be jeopardized, faster than the decline of the phones, once the heavy weights of IBM, Apple and Microsoft decided this is an area of growth for them (and the have orders of magnitude more resources to invest in this),

    - IoT, Car support software will very soon become just a commodity, money to be made in outer layers of value-added offers, not in this tiny business,

    I would give them 2 yrs from now. To be honest, my prognostication was this year, but I think BBRY is still breathing on the hope it can be sold.Either they achieve it this calendar year, or the bankruptcy is certain, imho.
    Anyway, if you are asking for everybody having an opinion to be a millionaire (if they can time the future of every company), there would be 0 post in this blog, that's for sure.
    May 28, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Vs. Transocean Partners [View article]
    Your expected $42 valuation for RIG is just because of fleet renewal? what about the oil, or that target is already considering a higher oil price?
    May 27, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - My Game Plan For This Week [View article]
    Just got long last week of SDRL with some Bull call spreads 15/18 for jan 2017, @$1.00 cost. If it tanks after ER, I will close the short legs hoping for a rebound. Btw, I'm long with the same BuCS for RIG, but for jan'16 expiration.
    Oil will not stay at this price for that long, imho. This is a hell of an opportunity.
    May 27, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is History [View article]
    Apple is too busy making tons of money to waste time bashing a company that is going straight into bankruptcy.
    This BBRY's blogs are a pleasure for sadists...
    May 27, 2015. 09:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry CEO Chen's compensation figures [View news story]
    ATI: It hasn't? ComScore data, jan each year, USA:
    2010: 43% Marketshare
    2011: 30%
    2012: 15%
    2013: 6%
    2014: 3%
    2015: 2%.
    The last one is generous. It was 1.8%. Now less than 1.5%.
    Cumulative users: 2010: 20M. 2015:3M. While the smartphone market size has grown from 43 to 190M.
    May 22, 2015. 08:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Carl Icahn Gets It Mostly Right [View article]
    Let's see:

    1- 9.60 EPS for FY15 of Icahn is considering 20% tax. Apple will probably get that number, or very close to it, even with the 26.x% tax they are currently declaring. So, he is right in that point. And with a still shy number of phones.

    2- Then , the 25% increase in profits for FY1 is also considering the lowered tax rate (which I agree, it is logically explained), and at least a 5% decrease in floating. Also perfectly achievable. While the TV would probably not count, a mere 3% increase in iphone sales is very shy, imho, almost absurd. The pending demand of current iphone users, plus what iWatch may add as a demand for new iphones is enough for a higher number. The money of that higher growth compensates with ease what he considers from TV for FY16.

    3- AAPL did trade very close to 18 P/E when the cash was much lower, in 2010, 2011. Then doubts appeared about sustainability of growth, that in the end, were unjustified. I would say that valuation is now easier, given the buyback program, that it has nowhere to go but to further increase in time.
    While it is very hard to achieve that level of sales growth forever, just the amount of free cashflow that Apple will have in the coming years is enough to level its value to other DOW's mature cash cows. It's a 'opportunity cost' situation. Either that, or the company will end privatized in a rather short span of time. So, yes, a time will come, sooner or later, when Apple will trade at 18 P/E. Just three years ago that seemed impossible to the very MSFT. Look what is happening now, for a company that is still basically going nowhere.

    Finally, and I know this is hard to grasp to many, Apple is already, by large, the biggest company in the world. It has more money available than any other government or company that exists. Do you really think they will do nothing with all that power? An EV is just one of the many business that Apple will be on in the future. If it is not a EV and a revolutionized TV business, it will be just because they will find even better ones instead. This is so obvious, I think...

    So, basically, yes, Icahn is right imho. If criticized because of his speculation of the nature of future growth, I think that is exactly what separates great investors from the common people. This kind of speculation is precisely a requirement to win in this game. Otherwise, he would be investing in bonds.
    May 20, 2015. 02:00 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critique Of Carl Icahn's Apple Fair Value Revaluation To $240 Per Share [View article]
    Somebody said in another post that, yes, Apple will buy all the shares except the one he will keep, that will be valued a trillion... Sorry sir, make them two. So yours and mine will cost just half a trillion each.
    May 20, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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