Seeking Alpha

pbanados

pbanados
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pbanados' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • The BlackBerry Android Phone Can Sell In The Millions If It's Priced Competitively [View article]
    One of the reasons i look sa from my phone instead of from web pages is to avoid google ads,
    This week i made my first purchase from ali baba. Since then, the web sites linked to google ads gave been flooding my compiter screen with ugly baba ads. I thought this point was already clear for everuyuser concerned on privacy and security, as bbry fans are so ready to point out.
    Aug 23, 2015. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: A New 'Mainstream' Phone And A Partner In PayPal [View article]
    CEO after CEO, BBRY has demonstrated a talent to do exactly the wrong things. Here they go again with this monstrosity of frankenphone. This is just painful to watch. As painful it will be to read the delusional answers to this post. What do you need to happen to be aware that this company is a death man walking?

    BTW, Alcaraz was expecting incomes of 50million with the association with paypal. Apple gets 0.15 dollars per each $100 traded with Pay. Do you really expect that BBM will be able to handle 50,000,000/0.0015=33 billions in transactions per year? with 80M users, that would be over $400 per user, that, if each and every one of them uses the service...gosh...
    And that, if this 80M figure is precise. Apple has 400M users worldwide. With that, they are achieving 44% of users share in USA. While BBRY is heading south of...1%.
    Aug 20, 2015. 03:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And TSMC: Strengthening Partnership For iPhone And Beyond [View article]
    As I see it, the "S" line of iphones, without form-factor changes, are characterized for their introduction of a novel input method. 4S:siri (and front camera, for FaceTime and the selfie fever); 5S:touchID (and M7 motion coprocessor, for tight integration with the watch in sport/health), 6S:ForceTouch (and...?). Normally those S lines have little use of these new input methods, but they are used to validate the big technological changes coming in the next generation of phones. As it was the touchId, that enabled Pay in the next generation.

    If you can't see the possibilities of taptic/forcetouch, I'm sorry for your selective blindness. To have a flat glass phone where you can feel the buttons of a calculator app, or sensible switch or rotary controls, or clearly identifiable braile signs, or textured areas in panels, would be a huge step forward, imho. Neither of that will be available in IP6S. It will be just tested by hundreds of millions of users, paving the way for those innovations to be present in IP7, and also in future ipads.
    Aug 18, 2015. 12:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple's Growth-Related Fears Are Overblown [View article]
    There is an issue frequently forgotten: Apple sells their devices more or less at the same net dollar cost everywhere. Price differences are due to local custom duties and VAT. In fact, it is cheaper -or at most equal- to buy an Apple product in my country than it is in the very USA, once you discount taxes. (so much so, that iphones here are cheaper than galaxys!).

    China is a country where the demand for iphones (and Apple products in general), is way higher than world's average. If iphone is priced at an average optimal point of the supply/demand curve (and even this is questionable, probably it is lower everywhere, given the endemic over demand at launch times), that means that China is way under that optimal point. This, in turn, means that Apple has room to update prices in yuans in case of a serious damage in margins, and still shouldn't see the overall demand lessened.
    I don't think they will do it now, but in case of need, they could.

    It is often a bear argument the sensibility to prices of 'luxury' goods like iphones in low-income countries. I believe that, given a minimum threshold of income -that China passes imho-, this is exactly the opposite: a really gorgeous smartphone (as iphones are), is a passport to a more dignified living. A such, it is valued very high in the expenses priorities for medium income people. One of the last things they are willing to dispose.
    Aug 12, 2015. 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Apple Burst The Netflix Bubble? [View article]
    You do remember how the music business was before iTunes, do you?
    Aug 12, 2015. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reversing My Call, Stock Is A Buy Once Again [View article]
    @author:
    instead of throwing numbers at random: @130 and P/E 16 is a sell, at @115 and P/E 13 a buy (perfect WS analyst style), why don't you come up with a kind of rational, mathematical explanation of your arguments? Something like: 'base P/E ' * a * b * c, where
    a: factor of volatility of earnings,
    b: factor of size of size company,
    c: factor of technology sector,
    etc,
    and a correlation of your results with the ROI, and/or discount rates for risk compared to alternatives (btw, aren't AAPL bonds some of the best rated in the market?)?.
    Considering, for example, that GOOGL is in the same technology sector, is also a one-trick pony as Apple bears are ready to point out, has also a huge market cap, has no buybacks or divs, and less cash in hand; why investors are willing to ask for GOOGL a fraction of the ROI they are asking for AAPL?

    Then we may understand you besides the ups and down of the stock, for which we just need to look at the market, instead of loosing time with these kind of articles.
    Aug 10, 2015. 01:52 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Will Take A Bite Out Of Apple's Growth Momentum [View article]
    I never thought investing was that easy. Just take a look at the Shanghai index, then go long or short AAPL. Wait...it is up 69% YoY!...
    Aug 7, 2015. 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Fall: Why It's A Buy [View article]
    The one competitor for iPhones that I feared was Nokia's Lumias, I found their phones rather appealing (not the OS, of course). Then MSFT made this big favor to Apple bulls: they burned 7.2B of cash destroying that business. 7.2BILLION!!
    That would be, for example, about all of the cars existing in my country, suddenly gone.
    A kilometer of underground typically costs about 50M; so, MSFT all of the sudden, in just a couple of years, disappeared something like all of the Washington DC Metro network; or the whole Rome Metro, the 60 years of it, not once, or twice, but 3 times...

    Apple bears don't have the slightest idea of what they are confromting.
    Aug 6, 2015. 07:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Music's Start Looks Promising, But Don't Get Blindsided By Early Numbers [View article]
    Some yrs ago I used to buy 7, 8 or more CD's per month. My budget for music then was no less than $70. Before that, I used to spend more in vinyls. And mountains of money in the equipment to play them.
    Now we (my family, myself) get much, much more for $15, and, as a fanatic as I am, have discovered wonderful music I didn't even know it existed.
    I find incomprehensible that wealthy people, like most here, complain for a mere $10 per month in something as important as your music.

    Btw, I canceled my paid Spotify. Music is just cool. It even sounds better (no bass boost like spotify).
    Aug 6, 2015. 05:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IAMGOLD Q2 Results: Thoughts On Westwood And Liquidity [View article]
    With a cash of 837M, and debt of 637, the net 200M is 35% of its current market value, even after today's 11% boost in share price. Just accounting depreciation charges are 3 times that market cap; and yet all of the equipment and properties are still there, to be grabbed basically for free by investors with enough patience for the gold price to recover.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean beats by $0.61, beats on revenue [View news story]
    what? more than doubled estimates and it is a mere 2.3% up AH? how many times in the last Q's has RIG crushed estimates, and keeps going down?
    Aug 5, 2015. 06:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    Are you aware that Apple's q1/15 was the highest profit ever recorded by any company, ever in history? But, don't worry, they'll beat it. And by far, very far what you prognosticated in 2013 that Apple would be making now.

    But then, with this criteria of growing forever, no matter how high the previous Q was, what after that? in Q1/17 they will have to beat again another 15%, 20%, and then again in 2018, 2019, etc? Every time being valued with a lower P/E multiple (until the FCF allows them to have in cash as big as it whole market value, an EV of 1.0), if they, not only meet growth estimates, but plainly crush them each and every occasion (see today's absurd downgrade points of BofA)? And if they do crush them ever, how would it be the P/E then? All of the sudden AAPL would have its stock price corrected to a standard P/E, even having order of magnitude higher earnings for the denominator? If the thesis for the stck just to maintain a fair value is of forever beating estimates of forever perpetual growth, where is to be found the trillions of dollars to backup a correct valuation? WS is trapped in its own FUD game; there is no way they can't correct the valuation of AAPL without loosing themselves, and so, there is no way they can avoid gifting the company to a handful of future shareholders (current option rights owners, perhaps?). And that's exactly what the buybacks are doing.

    I would be just happy if AAPL at this point can maintain the spectacular numbers they are doing FY15 for the rest of this decade. Sooner or later it should be valued same as utilities, MSFT or other cash cows, 30 P/E or so. But don't worry, they will do better than that 0 growth, and WS will have a big, big problem to solve.
    Aug 5, 2015. 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Market's False Correction [View article]
    nice comment, but one observation:
    South America is a subset of Latin America, which in turn is a subset of America. And America is not USA. Avoid recursion.
    Aug 5, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    imho, even if Apple would suddenly stop making iPhones, and redirect their R&D efforts and their 200B in the bank to pay, music, video streaming and other services, other body sensors for the watch, and the remaining hardware, it would still be cheap at $115.
    But, of course, WS doesn't agree. If Apple don't crush the highest profits ever recorded on planet earth (in past q1/15) next january, it will be doomed, no matter if they pile in the bank, as they will, yet another mountain of money.
    Aug 5, 2015. 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    welcome to the python... it is guaranteed to squeeze your brain, for better or worse.
    Aug 5, 2015. 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
319 Comments
718 Likes