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  • How Google Stole The Show From Apple  [View article]
    We need to understand that tim & partners are on the market as buyers of something they don't want to be more expensive. Their own shares.
    The job for permanent shareholders, and specially for future share owners (high profile employees) has been outstanding, from that point of view. They have graciously taken most of my and many others lifetime savings.
    Of course, in the process they have received unvaluable help from Goldman Sacks and his new board member, Oppenheimer (the one that started the buybacks while still as Apple CFO, btw). Of course, there have been others taking advantage of these long term plans, as we can infer from the ratings and updates of 'analysts'.
    Feb 5, 2016. 08:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: iPhone Is Not Dead, It's About To Come Alive, Part 2  [View article]
    It's funny how people feel themselves entitled to judge a product without even using it.

    However it is still short of really good apps, the watch is clearly a key product for the coming years. In just a few months it will disrupt most health business with sensor equipped bands, for example.
    Feb 3, 2016. 07:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Rotting? (Podcast)  [View article]
    @bastecio: You have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about.
    Feb 3, 2016. 02:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Tim Cook Must Do To Turn Apple Around, 2013 Vs. 2016  [View article]
    Mark: you mean, other than meeting the president of China, of India, of USA, and the Pope in the timeframe of two months?
    I hope he is subscribed to SA to get notification of these advices...
    You have all my respect, but i suggest a choose better titles for your articles.
    Jan 31, 2016. 12:40 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    edinberg: brilliant answer. So sad we have to navigate on a sea of silliness to find a few good posts.

    Just one more thing about Apple loosing their design lead: that's not what the two main chinese players think, precisely those that are making things so difficult for Samsung (the perennial xerox machine): Those sons clearly bested their Sammy father, and not a single gram of their products get out of their drawing boards without waiting first what Apple will do. In fact, not a single gram differs of the actual Apple physical designs!
    Then, what Paulo says is that Samsung has advanced so much in their (now creative) labs that from now on, the taste of the world will come from just that Korean company (I guess he is not counting on the frankenstein designs of BBRY). And so, he is asking an act of faith from everybody even higher than hist first premise of Apple collapsing in a blink.
    I just wonder why, then, Samsung is the one actually collapsing, instead of valued at a huge P/E.
    Jan 29, 2016. 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    Margins: your numbers of 2012 were expecting a much lower margin, and so, your revenue figures were in the low 20billions now. They more than double that.
    If margins were as low as you considered, the marketshare would be much, much higher. And that's exactly what will happen within one or two years from now, imho. Unfortunately not because management is specially clever about this, but because they will be forced on the macroeconomic environment. Btw, I think even Google and MSFT don't want this to happen, they would much prefer Apple to keep AAPL earnings at their little 5X billions and moderate growth, and leave their marketshare in peace.

    And we still not get in the FCF thing, and thus the net cash and buybacks possible with it, that was also denied by you back in 2012. A good analysis considers the whole picture, not just cherry-picked numbers that suit your thesis.
    Jan 28, 2016. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    Paulo:
    I'll just address your fists points above. The rest are almost personal opinions, we may never agree in those (among other reasons, since I use Apple products, and you don't). All what readers ask -bulls or bears- I think, is logical consistency of argumentation.

    Apple sold iPhone in net acquisitive terms, at prices 9% higher that in Q1/15. Not only that, they even allow themselves the luxury of raising margins for that, in front of a difficult economic situation they knew better than anyone else (and THAT would be a reason to be upset).

    Basic microeconomic theory of elasticity of demand says that, the higher the price, the lower the demand. That, or the good sold is completely inelastic (bulls strongest argument in this case, which i'm certain is not what you believe).
    As is stands out, Apple raised prices and yet it sold, more or less, the same numbers of devices. As things are not proportional (demand is a curve, not a straight line), a 9% price increase had probably a much higher impact in demand.
    Then, the logical explanation is NOT that the demand of iphones if fading: it is a global economic turmoil (this is so obvious when you see the parity rates, oil and commodities prices, debt situation of key countries, growth of China, etc., that i find almost absurd to argue about it). In that case, it is ALL the manufacturers that will suffer, not just Apple. And given the sustained demand that the above figures show, plus the sustainable advantages of Apple (some of them objective, others arguable I recognize, anyway I listed some in my previous post), my bet is that Apple should exit from this situation not weaker, but stronger in the end.

    Summing up, as the clever man you are please post rational, not emotional arguments. You are still, imho, unbelievable biased because of the bad experience with... a cable (!) of your daughter, for which I'm sorry and share your complaints, but from a user, not an investor POV.
    Jan 28, 2016. 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    perhaps he refers to HPQ, with 4.0 P/E, less than 5%GM, failing in each and every business they get in, trashing every billionaire useless acquisition, a balance sheet with goodwill doubling its market cap, and finally with negative cash.
    Just like Apple.
    Jan 27, 2016. 01:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    Paulo: And the explanation for that drop is not the peak-iphone meme, but a global world turmoil. Exactly the opposite of what Apple bears wanted to hear, if you think so.
    How do you believe Samsung and Chinese manufacturers, not to speak of the androided Blackberry, will perform in that recessive scenario?
    How long it would take Apple to adjust prices for the demand elasticity they already started to explore in India, and gain enormous global marketshare using the cash, margins and their vault of still unused innovations, while all others will be struggling for survival?
    How will android manufacturers will manage, without profits at all, the R&D needed to catch, say, the accelerated Apple's AX SoC's, among so many other things?

    Regarding the little appeal you envisage for the new iphone, you can be sure that the IP7 will be:
    - so slim as not even allowing a audio jack.
    - because of that, implementing high-res audio streaming.
    - at least doubling A9 performance, already ahead of competition.
    - much more power efficient, so to be housed in that thin device.
    - with advances uses of 3dTouch, as Apple always does with the new input methods introduced almost in test mode in the previous S series (siri, touchId, now 3dTouch).
    I think, enough to put all troubled competitors under the ropes.

    At least regarding the iPhone, yesterday's news could be what finally kills android in the long term: the most feared scenario for Google et al: Apple finally going for marketshare, gaining users they'll hardly loose after that. Although I agree with you that Apple has been unacceptable sleeping regarding ipads and in IOS/OSX integration, a situation I hope they will correct this year with the lessons learned now.
    Jan 27, 2016. 12:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple And Chill  [View article]
    It is one billion devices, not users. Still impressive, though.
    At an average of perhaps two devices per user (less would be bearish, not a strong enough ecosystem), it is sufficient for a sizable, perpetual stream of revenues just for this concept. Then wait until the TV take-off (even with Cue in charge, this will happen sooner or later), pay expansion, Music at enormous growth rates, etc.
    Jan 27, 2016. 11:49 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's call: Chinese macro, forex, virtual reality, iPhone ASP discussed  [View news story]
    Or Cook & partners are extremely intelligent, have played accordingly, and this guidance is an official recession declaration. That, to be honest, could probably the best scenario for Apple in the long term. Anyway, I'll short AMZN tomorrow.
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:18 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The Eternal Value Trap  [View article]
    Regarding principle #4: Don't you see as a problem that, while INTC is at 2yr Moore's Law, ARM is doubling faster, and AX SoC's of Apple in particular are doing it at a 12-month rate? Isn't that specially troublesome given that Intel hasn't yet achieved a low-powered chip suitable for mobile?
    Jan 26, 2016. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Apple Be The Next Amex, Or Could Amex Be The Next Apple?  [View article]
    I disagree with the negativity of other bulls here regarding what Karen wrote (nicely, btw). This is the one bear article of AAPL I would value; the only intelligent one in months, for sure. I do not concur with the conclusions, but it is worth the reading.
    Jan 26, 2016. 12:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimates Of Apple's Q1 All Over The Map - Investors May Need A Map Out Of The Confusion  [View article]
    Unless we enter a recession, and those 50B of AAPL would be huge -with all FANGS falling, as well as every other tech company-. Enough, for example, to ensure a spectacular marketshare increase and give a relief to Blair, so concerned about this number. And with all others starving, Apple will be releasing first a more capable small phone, then a sensor equipped new watch, and in 9 months, a phone that will blow away everything else (not because it will be better- and it will be-, but because all others would be more worried avoiding bankruptcy than developing high quality devices at a loss).

    No? you still think Android manufacturers will do it just fine in this eventual recession scenario? But not Chinese manufacturers, for sure, they are already in troubles. Then, invest in Samsung! South Korea is about to rule the world in the coming months, and goodbye USA and Europe and China!! Wait, but Samsung is in even deeper troubles, and investing in the very Apple instead, 8 billions to be exact...

    OK. No recession. All others will be in the normal track of trying to catch Apple's Ax SoC's development (miraculously doubling Moore's law progress YoY to do that), the full-swift optimized IOS we will know in june (and then a better android all of the sudden available to every new device, breaking that trend of 6% updated phones). And with Apple expanding fiercely in China and India, among other challenges.
    Then, how would you explain AAPL to fall from 100% growth in China to...0%? All the 80-90% wealthy people of the world fully committed to Apple will all of the sudden stop choosing its products? All those movie actors refusing to appear other than with iphones, all those music stars committed to iTunes or iMusic, all that people you see in cafes with macs instead of pc's, all those crowded Apple stores while Microsoft ones are empty, etc.? All that gone in a blink? A change whose magnitude would be bigger than, say, the NBA with empty stadiums, loosing all their fans in a Q.

    No, I can't explain it also, because if there is no recession, that won't happen, and Apple will have a much higher profit in FY16.
    Jan 25, 2016. 11:47 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple's car project leader leaving company  [View news story]
    you mean, other than a device so thin than they can't put a headphone jack in it (thus, forced to high end audio)? and so, with a processor so much efficient than it can be actually housed in such a slim device? A much faster one also, compared to the A9X already much better than anything else of the competition (that by September will be struggling to survive in a recession scenario?). And that added power, given a screen of the same size, to be used in what? Some revolutionary uses of 3dTouch perhaps?
    Other than that, sure, IP7 is DOA.
    (sorry, do I need the /S?)
    Jan 23, 2016. 02:58 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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