Seeking Alpha

pbanados

pbanados
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pbanados' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • WSJ: Apple talking Web TV service for fall launch [View news story]
    I was over simplifying, to be concise: Beats generates a bit over a billion "revenues" per year, although this will probably increase after Apple ownership. Margins are high, but not enough to qualify in the "billion" profits group. Still. Sooner or later, they will make a good-sounding can (hint for Apple: get Dr Fang Bian of HiFi-Man on board!).

    All others mentioned do make over a billion per year profits.
    And yes, it was quite a good acquisition: 3X sales is very cheap. Iovine and the audio streaming were basically for free.
    Mar 17, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple talking Web TV service for fall launch [View news story]
    Redmond:

    Perhaps you haven't heard the news. In about a month, Apple will start selling a tiny device called Watch, so profitable, that within a year or so they will pile earnings with that device alone that will be about half of all what Google -the second largest S&P market cap company- does.

    Btw, they also have some petty-cash incomes, like Beats, apps, peripherals. Petty-cash meaning a few billion dollars each.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Age Of Radio Bedevils PCs And Tablets Alike [View article]
    Homekit, iBeacons.
    In fact, it could be argued that Apple has the most advanced platform for IOT right now. The only one truly integrated to an ecosystem, for example.
    Mar 13, 2015. 04:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Apple: Embracing Personalized Technology With A Luxury Twist [View article]
    @pk, julie
    That's right. Task for Google. Apple will just tell you the consequences of doing it.
    What a nice way to sum up all the current tech situation in a short joke. Thx, pk!
    Mar 13, 2015. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Most Brilliant Move Is Not The Watch [View article]
    @Lion:
    Apparently the people of Oxford, Stanford, Cornell, UCLA, Mount Sinai do not agree with your assesment. I would, at least, give them the benefit of doubt. I'm not sure they aren't 'serious researchers'.
    Mar 11, 2015. 05:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Won't Impact The Stock Right Away [View article]
    You should check your maths Dana: 'Even a "home run" volume of 50 million watches still means incremental revenue of $10 billion'.
    At an ASP of no less than $540, or higher is the share of stainless steel models is over 25% (as I think it will be), that home run would be more like 27 billion, not 10... and that's not counting the sales of additional straps, that will also be significant.
    Within a year timeframe, I think some 25 to 27B revenues are perfectly possible. Which means that this tiny watch will have revenues that would be something like one of every three airplanes Boeing sells in a year, at higher margins... and that will make Apple the world's largest watch maker by far.
    Mar 9, 2015. 05:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Wide Is Apple's iOS Revenue Moat? [View article]
    The interesting thing about the 6 countries you mentioned (data: world bank):

    Population: IOS: 553 million (27%), Android: 1553 million (73%)
    Global income: IOS: 13.4 Billion (41%) , Android: 19.4 Billion (59%)
    PerCapita Income: IOS: 24,250; Android: 12,642.
    These percentages are, btw, are changing fast, with the availability of large screen iphones (China, UK, even USA). Neither this accounts for the momentum generated by Pay and Watch, that we are just starting to see.

    So, basically, addressable market for IOS developers is 2X more prone to spend in apps. For that, they must develop 3 or 4 versions (including tablets, all of them automatically managed by Xcode: in itself, a much cleaner and friendly development environment than Android alternatives). Most of the code is suitable for desktop apps, too. And the watch, of course.

    Android developers, instead, for half the expected revenue, must be aware of thousands of flavors of Android (screen size, performance, features, versions of the OS), in an almost blind design process. And the code is basically useless for windows apps development.

    Need to say more?.
    Mar 4, 2015. 10:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung launches S6 with metal/glass body, 2K display, new fingerprint sensor [View news story]
    These Samesung guys are so unimaginative and shameless, that they even copy the bad features of iPhones: the headphone jack at the bottom, the loudspeakers wrongly oriented...

    I thought the problem of Iphones were:
    - a useless, 'pure-gimick' 64 bit processor
    - not expandable, no SD cards
    - non-repleaceable batteries.

    Then, after years copying everything else except the above, they just do exactly the same.

    I wonder how this phone will solve the battery life with: the memory management issues inherent of android, the absurdly high pixel count (impossible to discern by users), and the thin device feature they, once again, copied from the last iphone.

    About "samsung Pay" (wonderfully original name): would you really trust your money to this combo of one company (Samsung) that, besides commanded by a convicted thief, has built an empire stealing the intelectual property of every competitor- specially americans-, and a second one (Google) who's business is spying you to sell your data to third parties?
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:42 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Beats Estimates, But Cash Burn And Debt Load Are Alarming [View article]
    Im a rookie in this area, so sorry in advance for these basic questions, but could somebody explain me the following:

    - Even in these difficult times, RIG has a backlog of two years assured.
    - For I can't recall how many consecutive Q's, the company has beaten estimates, but still goes down every time.
    - At the prices of these contracts, the company is still winning money, at a healthy 39% GM.
    - RIG is preparing itself, with sizable investments, for the rebound of oil prices that sooner or later will come. The company is criticized because of their old rigs, and then criticized for updating the fleet.
    - If circumstantial negative cashflow turns to be a concern, there are rather easy measures to stop the leakage: reduce or cut the divs (as they did), or just postpone those investments. If they are not doing it, my guess is not because the management is plain stupid.
    - The big concern of unsustainable cashflows, paired with difficult credit, shown as here as an inevitable fate, is almost an implied announcement of end-of-business. The market is really thinking a company as big as RIG will go bankruptcy?

    So, why so much negativity with a company already trading at less than half of its book value, and absurd P/E levels?
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Focus On Apple Watch Edition Pricing [View article]
    Bottom line: compounded ASP will be close to $680, or higher.
    Sport: $370 average, 60% share.
    Watch: from $550 to $1,000. 35%
    Edition: $10,000 and change. 5%
    No less than 3.7B revenues, just starting in Q3.
    Margins: the highest of any Apple product.

    Grab AAPL stock while you can.
    Feb 25, 2015. 04:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Entering The Car Sector? Why This Could Be Its Next 'Large Numbers' Move [View article]
    "Assuming a volume somewhere in between the annual output of Porsche and BMW, Apple could achieve a passenger car market share of around 1-2% over time."
    Given this low marketshare, I predict Blair will keep shorting the name in 2020.
    Feb 19, 2015. 07:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Apple Price Target Appears Unrealistic [View article]
    Just one more thing:

    Your numbers of cashflow are based in a net income a just shy of 44B for FY15. But TTM net income is already 44.5 B. Looks like FY15 will be more like 50Billion. If you apply your 27% growth rate in incomes based in that 50B, that would lead to some added 23B by 2017.

    Right now, even if they were not issuing debt for buybacks, and paying divs and capex, AAPL would still have a free cash flow of some 38B, and that is expected to increase enormously in the coming Q's. With that money, there is nothing better than investing this in AAPL, imho. Via buybacks. If they don't, the EV ratios would be even more absurd than now.

    If AAPL remains undervalued against S&P, and the pipeline of new products is just slightly successful, I think the buybacks could be even higher of what Icahn says. Even so, and even having the cash available, i'm not necessarily against some debt, that in the long term will mean a better ROC, because of a bit of leverage it implies. If they are able to find juicy investment projects (the one they have now is their own shares).
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn's Apple Price Target Appears Unrealistic [View article]
    I'm missing a couple of important related issues in your article:

    1- Icahn says that they should apply a 20% tax, instead of the 26.x% of Apple "effective tax", because the money is not specifically declared as intended to be reinvested abroad, but eventually returned at some time. As does Google, for example, paying bout 20% of taxes. So, Apple already pays a higher tax because an eventual return of that money, and thus, a lower tax should be applied once they do so.
    If I understand this correctly, this is in contradiction with your article. If there is already an added payment of 6%, the effective tax of the 14% proposal would be 8%. Also the math shouldn't be that simple: I guess that tax rate is applied to the money earned abroad, not to the whole earnings, all of which shouldn't be as simple as applying it to the returning cash. If Apple, instead, effectively invest big money abroad (in a car plant among other things, maybe?), the tax rate payed already accounts that, so, nothing else to pay.

    2- Apple balance sheet already piles 23.3 Billion in deferred taxes liabilities. If it uses any money in taxes for repatriation (that, according to the above, would be less than this deferred line), this huge deferred amount should go to one-time earnings, right? Or perhaps this may be another way to account the same that Icahn is telling above?

    If these issues are correct, then the cost of repatriation if much lower than what you say in your article, I guess. But honestly, I'm not sure of this. Would be nice to have some insight on these points.
    Feb 19, 2015. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • No, Apple Won't Acquire Tesla - And Here Is Why [View article]
    And Ferraris were displayed at Moscone center for the CarPlay launch.

    And Ive visits the construction site of campus 2 in a Jeep (a Wrangler I suppose), which, btw, I think it must be the only acceptable american car design for his industrial design standards, all others in his "shit I hate" list. Granted, Tesla's model S design is very close to some Mercedes or the Jaguar XJ.

    I think Apple will make agreements with Tesla to use and expand the charging network, and with FCA for a joint state-of-the-art fab in China. The CR, electric and electrifying, is a sure thing imho. Give them some 3 yrs.
    Feb 19, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Expect Another Small Dividend Raise [View article]
    - Dividends are good for stock. Buybacks are better for options. I mostly play options (and so do Apple's managers, btw). So, I prefer buybacks.
    - All in all, I think Apple invests money better than myself. So, I prefer buybacks.
    - Even having the cash from dividends, it would be hard to me to find a better investment than AAPL anyway. So, I prefer the short route: buybacks.
    - AAPL growths more than average S&P, but it's valued lower. While WS keeps holding such a low P/E for Apple (not to talk of real EV, discounting cash), buybacks are a much better business, imho.
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:24 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
276 Comments
561 Likes