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pbanados

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  • Apple To $140: Making Higher Highs And Higher Lows; Funds Desperately Want Back In [View article]
    You really have fallen in love with yourself, don't you?
    May 28, 2015. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is History [View article]
    Given that:

    - the smartphone business is in extinction, and no, BB10 is NOT the solution -BBRY is still loosing 150,000 users monthly just in USA-; and NO, the passport is not the life-vest also, it is just a absurd monstrosity of a device,

    - the security and MDM is also a business ready to be jeopardized, faster than the decline of the phones, once the heavy weights of IBM, Apple and Microsoft decided this is an area of growth for them (and the have orders of magnitude more resources to invest in this),

    - IoT, Car support software will very soon become just a commodity, money to be made in outer layers of value-added offers, not in this tiny business,

    I would give them 2 yrs from now. To be honest, my prognostication was this year, but I think BBRY is still breathing on the hope it can be sold.Either they achieve it this calendar year, or the bankruptcy is certain, imho.
    Anyway, if you are asking for everybody having an opinion to be a millionaire (if they can time the future of every company), there would be 0 post in this blog, that's for sure.
    May 28, 2015. 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean Vs. Transocean Partners [View article]
    Your expected $42 valuation for RIG is just because of fleet renewal? what about the oil, or that target is already considering a higher oil price?
    May 27, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill - My Game Plan For This Week [View article]
    Just got long last week of SDRL with some Bull call spreads 15/18 for jan 2017, @$1.00 cost. If it tanks after ER, I will close the short legs hoping for a rebound. Btw, I'm long with the same BuCS for RIG, but for jan'16 expiration.
    Oil will not stay at this price for that long, imho. This is a hell of an opportunity.
    May 27, 2015. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Is History [View article]
    Apple is too busy making tons of money to waste time bashing a company that is going straight into bankruptcy.
    This BBRY's blogs are a pleasure for sadists...
    May 27, 2015. 09:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry CEO Chen's compensation figures [View news story]
    ATI: It hasn't? ComScore data, jan each year, USA:
    2010: 43% Marketshare
    2011: 30%
    2012: 15%
    2013: 6%
    2014: 3%
    2015: 2%.
    The last one is generous. It was 1.8%. Now less than 1.5%.
    Cumulative users: 2010: 20M. 2015:3M. While the smartphone market size has grown from 43 to 190M.
    May 22, 2015. 08:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Carl Icahn Gets It Mostly Right [View article]
    Let's see:

    1- 9.60 EPS for FY15 of Icahn is considering 20% tax. Apple will probably get that number, or very close to it, even with the 26.x% tax they are currently declaring. So, he is right in that point. And with a still shy number of phones.

    2- Then , the 25% increase in profits for FY1 is also considering the lowered tax rate (which I agree, it is logically explained), and at least a 5% decrease in floating. Also perfectly achievable. While the TV would probably not count, a mere 3% increase in iphone sales is very shy, imho, almost absurd. The pending demand of current iphone users, plus what iWatch may add as a demand for new iphones is enough for a higher number. The money of that higher growth compensates with ease what he considers from TV for FY16.

    3- AAPL did trade very close to 18 P/E when the cash was much lower, in 2010, 2011. Then doubts appeared about sustainability of growth, that in the end, were unjustified. I would say that valuation is now easier, given the buyback program, that it has nowhere to go but to further increase in time.
    While it is very hard to achieve that level of sales growth forever, just the amount of free cashflow that Apple will have in the coming years is enough to level its value to other DOW's mature cash cows. It's a 'opportunity cost' situation. Either that, or the company will end privatized in a rather short span of time. So, yes, a time will come, sooner or later, when Apple will trade at 18 P/E. Just three years ago that seemed impossible to the very MSFT. Look what is happening now, for a company that is still basically going nowhere.

    Finally, and I know this is hard to grasp to many, Apple is already, by large, the biggest company in the world. It has more money available than any other government or company that exists. Do you really think they will do nothing with all that power? An EV is just one of the many business that Apple will be on in the future. If it is not a EV and a revolutionized TV business, it will be just because they will find even better ones instead. This is so obvious, I think...

    So, basically, yes, Icahn is right imho. If criticized because of his speculation of the nature of future growth, I think that is exactly what separates great investors from the common people. This kind of speculation is precisely a requirement to win in this game. Otherwise, he would be investing in bonds.
    May 20, 2015. 02:00 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Critique Of Carl Icahn's Apple Fair Value Revaluation To $240 Per Share [View article]
    Somebody said in another post that, yes, Apple will buy all the shares except the one he will keep, that will be valued a trillion... Sorry sir, make them two. So yours and mine will cost just half a trillion each.
    May 20, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Debt: Cheap Compared To Peers [View article]
    AAPL is rated as AA+ since the days it was at $55, and with shrinking growth. Conclusion:
    - it will be upgraded to AAA any time soon. It is a more solid company than Exxon o Microsoft.
    - And/or, the clowns that claimed that Apple was doomed (because they didn't have a bigger phone -at the wrong time for it-, or because they don't sell more of them at a loss in countries like Malasia or Argentina, like BBRY or Androids do, just for the sake of marketshare) should take a look at what serious investors think about this company, looking at the debt ratings.
    May 7, 2015. 10:23 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean's Quarter Was A Slam Dunk [View article]
    Absurd price action. Doubled my position @17.80
    May 7, 2015. 09:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean beats by $0.50, beats on revenue [View news story]
    I've been invested in RIG for about 2 yrs. I don't recall a single Q in all this time that they haven't beat estimates, and a single Q where the stock hasn't go down the day after ER.
    Here we go again. Gosh...
    May 7, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Zenith Behind Us, Nadir On The Horizon [View article]
    So: iphone got #1and #5 spots with just one week of sales in september? So bad they did it?
    May 1, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings: Astonishingly Good [View article]
    Julie..., Julie..., Julie....
    It seems you still think that innovation is measured with a ruler.
    Apr 28, 2015. 12:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch Success Not Limited To Unit Sales [View article]
    Frost, don't you have something useful to do with your life other than bashing Apple everywhere? People of Apple Insider got tired of you, so you now are doing the same here?
    Apr 10, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean - Time To Buy Offshore Drillers At Bargain Valuations? [View article]
    If RIG is scrapping 35 yr old rigs, shouldn't those be already fully depreciated? Meaning that the scrapping of old rigs should have no impact in book value? Do you have a detail of book value of each rig in order to dismiss this 0.4 book value (and with a significant part of it being cash) as meaningless?
    I don't really know about this in detail, but given the age of the rigs being scrapped, I believe that the write downs may be related with goodwill instead.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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