U.S. 10-Year Yield: Breakout Or Fake Out?

by: Bespoke Investment Group

While equities have been the place to be so far in 2013, some of the gains have come at the expense of US Treasuries where yields have been on the rise. Less than two weeks ago, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury broke out above significant resistance and traded as high as 1.97% on January 4th.

At the time, it looked as though the yield was staging a textbook breakout. That breakout in yield, however, is quickly beginning to look like a fake out. As shown in the chart below, after the last few days the yield on the 10-year has now drifted back below its breakout point. Commentators have been quick to write the obituary of the bull market in treasuries, but based on the 10-year yield in the last few days, the market may be saying not so fast.