Housing Price Bubble Watch: Accelerating Price Growth

Includes: IYR
by: Modeled Behavior

By Karl Smith

Bill McBride has CoreLogics' year-over-year numbers on home prices:

The key here is to note that "up" is not home price growth, it's home price growth acceleration. Compare the slope today with the slope during 2003 and you can see that home prices are accelerating faster. Indeed, notice that they are accelerating faster than they decelerated during the bust.

The breaks on home price growth were slammed down hard in 2006-07. However, the gas today is being hit even harder. Folks may notice that the price acceleration for distressed properties during 2009 was even more intense. In early 2009, prices for distressed properties literally bounced. In both physics and finance, a bounce indicates the harder impact is possible, indeed much harder than smashing through the floor. That's the intensity of impact we are seeing now, except from a relatively steady perch rather than the end of a dramatic free fall.