$850B Stimulus Plan Signals Gold Take-Off

|
Includes: GLD, TLT
by: Peter Cooper

Last night the US passed its much anticipated $850 billion Obama stimulus package, representing another huge monetary expansion. Countries all around the world have been at it, and the volume of money in circulation is increasing at a record level.

Meantime, gold prices have been perky and past $900 earlier this week. Now gold has fallen back a little. The gold chart has completed an almost perfect inverse head-and-shoulders pattern which should mark the reversal of the falling trend that started at $1,050 an ounce last March.

Gold technicals

Aside from the technicals of the gold chart, let us also get back to fundamentals: the supply of gold and silver is pretty much fixed. Money supply is undergoing huge and unprecedented expansion.

At present, governments are printing money like fury and little is happening to their economies because banks, companies and individuals are hoarding cash. But eventually pulling on this string will work, and money will flood into the economy in an uncontrollable way.

It is at this point that gold prices will go ballistic. That should not be more than nine months to a year away based on past precedent.

However, before that golden age occurs there will be increasing speculation about the future of the gold (and silver) price. More and more investors will read articles like this one and be impressed by the argument - which is far sounder than trying to come up with a new bull market for equities, bonds or real estate.

Bond crash

Sometime soon the bond markets of the world are also going to weaken much further, and that will give precious metals another reason to rise in value as an alternative safe haven class.

For investors in precious metals then it is just a matter of holding on and taking advantage of price dips to stock up with bullion and shares, although it is surely arguable that the best buying opportunities are behind us now as the price trend is about to head back up.

Trying to time the market exactly or using borrowed money is not a clever approach in volatile markets, but a diversified precious metals portfolio is going to be a winner over the next two years.