Deere: Overvalued Cyclical Stock

| About: Deere & (DE)

Executive Summary

We believe that Deere (NYSE:DE) is a medium quality company with a Business Quality Score of 4 based on a scale of 1 to 10 (10 is best). Also, shares of Deere appear to be overvalued based on a discounted cash flow analysis. Deere stock would need to fall 24.7% to reach fair value based on the closing price of $87.75/share for Deere shares on 02-15-2013.

Business Quality Analysis

Deere has a Business Quality Score of 4 out of 10 based on an analysis of historical data. We assign a Business Quality Score to each company undergoing analysis. The score is based on a scale of 1 to 10 with a value of 10 indicating the best possible Business Quality Score. Our Business Quality Score is a proprietary metric, which takes into account the 10-year historical performance of the company. Performance is measured considering the absolute performance (and trends) in revenues, earnings, profit margins, and returns on assets/equity.

Low Business Quality Scores (3 or lower) indicate companies that are in a cyclical or commodity business. These businesses have erratic revenues and earnings with associated low profit margins and poor returns on capital. Low quality companies operate in highly competitive/cyclical businesses where consistent profits are nearly impossible to achieve.

Medium Business Quality Scores (4 to 6) indicate an average quality business that operates in a business environment that is not overly cyclical in nature. Also, the products or services these businesses provide are not yet commoditized but do operate in a highly competitive business environment. Moreover, these businesses do not have durable competitive advantages that will allow these businesses to earn consistently high returns on capital. Companies with a medium Business Quality Score can sometimes be good investments if bought at deeply discount prices and sold at fair value. This is in contrast to investments in businesses with high Business Quality Scores where paying fair value for shares can yield good returns if held for the long term.

High Business Quality Scores (7 or higher) indicate companies that are in high-quality businesses with some type of durable competitive advantages that keep competitors at bay. These businesses typically have steadily rising revenues and earnings with associated high profit margins and high returns on capital.


Deere's revenues have had good performance over the last 10 years growing at an annualized growth rate of 8.8%. Revenues took a big hit in 2009 dropping 18.7% year over year. However, we believe that Deere is a turn-around story that will continue to grow revenues as it has since 2010. In our opinion, Deere will grow revenues at a 7% annualized growth rate over the next decade.

Earnings Per Share

Deere's earnings grew at an annualized growth rate of 19.2% over the last decade. However, the earnings were not consistent with a huge earnings shortfall in 2009. In fact, earnings dropped 56.2% in 2009. Wide variation in earnings is not indicative of a high quality business with strong competitive advantages. Deere's performance in this regard is one reason we gave Deere a medium level Business Quality Score of 4. However, we believe that Deere has solved many of its problems and that Deere will have annualized earnings growth of about 8% in future years.

A company's earnings per share is a measure of profitability for a company. The earnings per share is calculated by dividing the net income attributable to the common stock by the average number of common shares outstanding. One drawback in using earnings as a profitably measure is that it does not consider the amount of assets needed to generate the earnings. Earning the same profit using fewer assets is more profitable but this is not captured in the earnings per share calculation.

High quality companies will have steadily rising earnings that do not vary greatly through a full business cycle (expansion-recession-expansion). Investing in high quality companies is fairly easy assuming an investor has realistic profit expectations and has the patience to wait for a reasonable stock price relative to the company's value.

Lower quality (cyclical) companies will have earnings that vary greatly over a business cycle. Often these cyclical companies will experience a drastic reduction in earnings during economic recessions. Investment profits can be had with investments in cyclical companies but the timing of the buying and selling of the investment must be in sync with the ebb and flow of the stock market. Typically, the stock market will start to recover about 6 months before the economy comes out of recession. However, this point in time is not obvious in the moment and is only known later with the benefit of hindsight. Furthermore, timing when to sell a cyclical stock is even more difficult. Timing the stock market is a matter of luck so it is best to stick with the higher quality stocks where market timing is not as critical to investing success.

Net Profit Margin

Deere has had net profit margins in the range of 3.8% to 8.7% over the last 10 years with an average net profit margin of 6.7%. Deere's net profit margin was 7.0% or better in 6 out of 10 years. For a manufacturing company, we would like to see the net profit margin consistently above 7%. Therefore, we consider this aspect of Deere's performance to be less than satisfactory. In the future, we expect Deere's net profit margin to hover around its long-term average of 6.7%.

The net profit margin is net income divided by net revenues. For non-retailing companies, a consistent net profit margin of 7% or higher is an indicator of a good company with some type of durable competitive advantage. In the retailing sector a net profit margin in the range of 2.5% to 5% is the norm even for the best companies. Ideally, the net profit margin should be steady or rising over the past 10 years.

Return On Assets

Deere has had a return on assets in the range of 2.2% to 6.1% over the last decade. Deere's performance in this regard is relatively poor considering that the return on assets was never above the critical 7.0% level during this period. We expect the return on assets to hover around Deere's long-term average return on assets of 4.5% in the coming decade.

Return on assets is a measure of how much profit is generated from a company's assets independent of how much debt is used to finance the acquisition of those assets. The return on assets is sometimes a better measure of profitability than return on equity because the return on equity can be significantly increased by adding more debt to a company's balance sheet. Adding more debt to a company can inflate profits but comes at the price of a greater risk of bankruptcy.

Measuring profitability using the return on assets does not have this problem because to calculate the return on assets the net income plus the interest expense net of income tax savings is divided by the average total assets of the company. Thus, by dividing the net income (adjusted for the affects of debt financing) by the total assets (debt + equity) of the company it cancels out the positive effects of debt.

The return on assets is great for comparing the profitability of companies with different levels of debt in their capital structures. Generally speaking, a consistent return on assets of about 7% or more is a good indication of a good business with some type of durable competitive advantage. One exception to this rule of thumb is the banking sector where a return on assets of just 2% is considered exceptional.

Return On Equity

Deere has had a return on equity in the range of 15.4% to 44.9% during the last 10 years. Deere's performance in this area initially appears to be great considering that the return on equity was above the critical 15% level in every year during this period. However, Deere has had a large amount of debt on its balance sheet during the last decade. In fact, Deere's long-term debt as a percentage of capitalization averaged about 66% during this time. Deere is using debt to increase its return on equity. When analyzing highly indebted companies like Deere we believe that the return on assets is a better measure of return on capital. We believe that Deere's return on equity will continue at its long-term average of about 29% for the foreseeable future.

Return on equity measures a company's performance in financing and using assets to generate earnings. In contrast to the return on assets, the return on equity considers the affect of financing in generating profits. To calculate the return on equity the net income (minus dividends paid on preferred stock) is divided by the average common shareholder's equity. As a rule of thumb, a consistent return on equity of 15% or more (assuming a reasonable level of debt financing) is an indicator of a good company with some type of durable competitive advantage.


A discounted cash flow analysis revealed a fair value for Deere shares of $66.09/share. We use the percent of revenue method in our discounted cash flow analysis. The model assumes an average weighted cost of capital (OTC:WACC) of 10.4%. Our WACC is calculated using a proprietary formula unique to our firm. An average annualized revenue growth rate of 7.0% is projected over the next 10 years. An average annualized revenue growth rate of 3.0% is assumed for every year thereafter.


Deere appears to be a medium quality company with an overvalued stock price. Based on a fair value of $66.09/share and the Deere closing stock price of $87.75/share (on 02-15-2013) the stock must fall 24.7% to reach fair value.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: Ulfberht Capital is not an investment advisor. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Always consult your investment advisor before making any investment decision.

About this article:

Author payment: $35 + $0.01/page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.
Tagged: , Farm & Construction Machinery
Want to share your opinion on this article? Add a comment.
Disagree with this article? .
To report a factual error in this article, click here