New York Real Estate: A Shoe Still Dropping?

Includes: GS, MS, NYCB, TOL
by: Research Recap

Audit Integrity’s Jim Kaplan thinks companies with heavy exposure to New York City real estate will be especially hard hit in the coming months as Wall Street layoffs and cutbacks mount.

Referring to the Wall Street Journal’s recent coverage of luxury builder Toll Brothers, Kaplan notes that the home builder admits to have targeted “hedge fund Johnny” to purchase its luxury condos, but now home sales in New York last quarter were down 50% from a year ago, and the supply is up 39%. Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) is looking at serious declines that will continue over the next two to three years as more and more banking industry employees are cut back.” He also notes that the 13.5% decline in NY Metro area single family home prices lags the 31.5% drop nationwide, peak to trough, and that commercial real etsate occupancy rates and rents continue to soften.

In a new Chairman’s Corner letter, Kaplan identifies the companies with the greatest exposure to the New York market, adding that several of them score low on Audit Integrity’s measure of corporate responsibility. Leading this dubious honor are Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), New York Community Bancorp (NYSE: NYB) and Goldman, Sachs (NYSE: GS).