Looking to avoid value traps? A historically low share price may seem attractive to an investor who hasn't done their research, but we can protect ourselves by taking cues from the actions of institutional investors, who are known for their in-depth analysis.
We ran a screen with this in mind.
In creating our screen, we began by looking for stocks with troubling accounting signs. While there are many ways to go about this, we chose to look for names with falling current ratios.
The higher the current ratio, the more capable the company is of covering its liabilities. Naturally, a falling current ratio is troubling. We screened for stocks with current ratios that have consistently dropped over three 12-month intervals and fallen below a ratio of 3.
Then, as suggested earlier, we screened these names for those with bearish sentiment from institutional investors, with significant net institutional sales over the last quarter representing at least 5% of share float. This indicates that institutional investors such as hedge fund managers and mutual fund managers expect these names to underperform.
Our final list consisted of 5 stocks.
A Closer Look
We looked at Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) in more detail. The stock trades around $34.50 versus its 52-week high of $43.54. The stock is trading with a P/E multiple of 34 times versus its competitor Zale Corp. (ZLC) which trades with a P/E multiple of 31 times.
Turning to the balance sheet, as of December 31st, 2012, Blue Nile has cash & cash equivalents of $87 million, and zero public debt. For the year, the company generated $32 million in free cash flow, part of which was used to buy back common stock. Free cash flow reported was a significant improvement from the $10.1 million generated in 2011. Additionally, Blue Nile has a $35 million credit revolver, which matures in 2014.
Looking at topline growth, sales for the full-year 2012 were $400 million versus $348 million in 2011, up 15%. International sales have shown a year-over-year growth of 29%.
Here is a company with a solid balance sheet, and improving top-line growth. Do you think Blue Nile deserves the negative sentiment?
Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in 1-year return over the last two years for stocks mentioned below. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.
The stocks listed below are signaling two bearish trends, but do you think these names will drop like short sellers and smart money expect? Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.
1. Constant Contact, Inc. (CTCT): Provides on-demand email marketing, social media marketing, event marketing, and online survey solutions primarily in the United States.
2. Harbinger Group Inc. (HRG): Operates as the holding company that focuses on acquiring interests in companies that operate in diverse range of industries.
3. IAC/InterActiveCorp. (IACI): Engages in the Internet business in the United States and internationally.
4. Blue Nile Inc. : Operates as an online retailer of diamonds and fine jewelry worldwide.
5. Penn Virginia Resource Partners LP (PVR): Engages in the management of coal and natural resource properties; and gathering and processing of natural gas in the United States.
*Institutional data sourced from Fidelity. All other data sourced from Finviz
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Business relationship disclosure: Business relationship disclosure: Kapitall is a team of analysts. This article was written by Sabina Bhatia, one of our writers. We did not receive compensation for this article (other than from Seeking Alpha), and we have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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