Cramer's Mad Money - Which Stocks Are Moving the Dow? (2/28/13)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday February 28.

American Express (NYSE:AXP), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Disney (NYSE:DIS), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Exxon (NYSE:XOM), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR)

With the Dow within 20 points of taking out an all-time high on Thursday, Cramer dedicated a segment to discussing which stocks brought the Dow to its dizzying heights, and which stocks were the laggards. He measured each stock according to how much it rallied off of its post-recession 2009 lows.

1. American Express (AXP) rallied 484%, and with re-invested dividends, 534%. The company had terrible debt losses a few years ago, but has improved its balance sheet and with a multiple of 13 is "one of the best stocks out there for 2013."

2. Caterpillar (CAT) rallied 286% off of its 2009 lows and 327% with re-invested dividends. CAT used to have to provide financing for clients, and suffered when those debts were not repaid during the recession, but now CAT"s balance sheet is rock solid. Cramer thinks CAT may rise to $116 from $92.

3. Home Depot (HD) rose 267% from 2009 and 320% with reinvested dividends. Management has worked hard to re-invent HD after the poor management in the past. The upcoming housing boom will be good for HD, which Cramer owns for his charitable trust. Cramer thinks HD has more room to run.

4. Disney (DIS) has rallied 250% or 268% with reinvested dividends. The company has made successful acquisitions, including Marvel and Star Wars. Its theme parks and ESPN continue to be value-creating segments.

5. General Electric (GE) rose 213% or 357% with reinvested dividends. Cramer thinks GE is one of the cheapest stocks in the Dow; it traded at $60 12 years ago, sits at $23 today, and is every bit as good as it has been in the past. The company has expanded more into the industrial sector and is less linked to the financial sector; the move has created stability for GE. The company has boosted its dividend and has instituted buybacks. "GE is too cheap to stay down here."

Cramer discussed the stocks that have been a drag on the Dow and whether or not they can see turnarounds.

1. Alcoa (AA) gained only 58% or 63% with reinvested dividends. Cramer thinks AA could ultimately go higher, but doesn't see much hope in the near term, unless as a takeover target. However, potential purchasers are not doing too well themselves, so Cramer would keep a distance from AA for now.

2. Cisco (CSCO) could be a big winner, but hasn't been performing well. However, Cramer says he has never seen CSCO trading at such a discount.

3. Wal-Mart (WMT) saw a 49% increase or 55% with reinvested dividends. Wal-Mart has moved lately, but its chart looks overextended. Cramer doesn't see a near term move upward for WMT.

4. Exxon (XOM) is a company that is "too much revered" and is not growing reserves as quickly as smaller companies. Cramer thinks XOM paid too much for its natural gas assets. "I don't think XOM will do much."

5. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has been the worst stock in the Dow, and has lost 21% since the Great Recession. Betting on a turnaround for HPQ is like "betting on a miracle." Cramer would not buy HPQ for all of these reasons, in addition to the fact it has already risen 40% since January, mainly on hope of a turnaround.

Cramer took a call:

First Solar (FSLR) lacks a catalyst and has reported bad quarters; "My advice is to get out."

CEO Interview: Marc Benioff, (NYSE:CRM). Other stock mentioned: SAP (NYSE:SAP). (CRM) is a pioneer in the cloud computing sector, which has been the fastest growing sector in tech. The company has seen a 650% gain since 2008, but the bears continue to question if its steady growth can continue. The company beat revenues by 11 cents with deferred revenue up 38%. "We are going to be the first $4 billion cloud computing company," said CEO Marc Benioff. "Every company wants to become a customer company." The bears are concerned about competition, but Benioff is confident CRM can stay above its peers. "We have SAP's (SAP) customers, and they have become our largest customers." Benioff added, "Our job is to make our customers massively successful."

CEO Interview: Patrick Doyle, Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ)

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) has been the second best-performing restaurant stock, thanks largely to the introduction of its hand-made deep dish pan pizza.The company beat earnings by 4 cents, with rising revenues and domestic same store sales up 4.7%. Its International segment is growing dramatically. The stock has risen 20% since December, and has seen a 360% rise since Cramer got behind it in January, 2010. With such a great quarter, Cramer asked how the company can improve. CEO Patrick Doyle said that currently DPZ has only 10% of the domestic pizza market, so there is room to expand. In addition, pan pizza comprised 20% of the market. DPZ was losing customers to those who serve pan pizza, and is attracting old customers back with its new offering. The company has refinanced its debt and is seeing strong cash flow. DPZ has been successful with advertising and with its app as well as local and national marketing campaigns.

CEO Interview: Carol Bachelder, AFC Enterprises (AFCE)

AFC Enterprises (AFCE) has been the best performer in the restaurant space, up 80% since last year and 15% since back at the beginning of the year. The company reported a 1 cent earnings beat with 31% year over year store growth. The stock has risen 14% since Cramer got behind it in November. AFC has been closing non-performing restaurants, mainly in slow markets in Europe, but is remodeling and opening new stores in the U.S. Turkey and Korea are new markets that enjoy its products, and AFC has also had a successful launch in Peru. Cramer commented; "It isn't often you get stocks that blow away the numbers that give you discounts. You've got one here."

J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), Groupon (NASDAQ:GRPN). Other stock mentioned: Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)

Overconfidence can undermine confidence in a CEO. When a company reports a bad quarter that management tries to paint as a good quarter, Cramer thinks that is a sure sign of a sell. Groupon's (GRPN) management made it sound as if the quarter was a success and not a failure, but still, its CEO was fired by the end of the day, and GRPN's stock rallied; "That is what happens when you get rid of a delusional Chief Executive."

J.C. Penney (JCP) was riding on the hopes of the new CEO Ron Johnson and his success with Apple (AAPL) stores. However, the aggressive strategies served only to alienate loyal JCP customers and to tarnish the reputation of the stores to the extent that Cramer sees an upside for JCP only if it changes its name and dismisses Johnson. "I've never seen anyone come back from comps down 31%." Cramer put Ron Johnson on the Wall of Shame, and added, "He has to go."


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