Time To Sell Universal Display And Buy Apple

Includes: AAPL, OLED
by: Heisenberg Principle

In my December 7 article entitled Time To Buy Universal Display, I recommended readers sell Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and buy Universal Display (NASDAQ:PANL). Now, nearly 3 months later, I'm recommending the exact opposite. PANL is a world leader in the development of innovative OLED technology for use in flat panel displays, lighting and organic electronics, and is a great company, but now is the time to take profits in PANL and buy AAPL on the dip. Here's why:

1. My original article most dealt with the price and valuation by the numbers with AAPL being short-term overpriced and PANL being short-term underpriced. Since that time, PAN has run from $26.70 to $32.00, a gain +19.9%. At the same time, AAPL has fallen from $533.25 to $430.47, a loss of $102.78 per share or -19.3%. Through the successful execution of this strategy, one can now can nearly 50% more AAPL shares than 3 months ago with the same money.

Chart forUniversal Display Corp.

2. In its latest earnings reports, AAPL beat EPS analyst estimates by 2.5% while PANL missed EPS analyst estimates by 7.8%.

3. Tangible shareholder equity for PANL went down 31.5% during the quarter (in part due to intellectual property investments). Tangible shareholder equity for AAPL went up $8.6 billion or 7.6% and cash went up around $16 billion. More and more available value for future distribution to shareholders has increased for AAPL while it decreased for PANL.

4. Analysts have lowered estimates for both companies, but big price swings make AAPL now look like the better bet on a valuation basis based on earnings. The average estimate has AAPL at a PE of 9-10 for fiscal 2013 whereas for PANL it's a PE of 45.

5. PANL pays no dividend and will pay no dividend for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, AAPL has been getting a lot of heat and pressure to unlock its massive cash reserve into shareholder value. News of a decision on this could come at any time and possibly send shares of AAPL soaring again. Right now AAPL stock has fallen from grace is trades unloved compared to where was, continually falling to new 52 week lows lately even while the rest of the market nears new highs. This poor performance will only put further pressure on AAPL management to do something for shareholders.

Chart forApple Inc.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.