H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) is expected to report fiscal third quarter earnings on Thursday, March 7th. The whisper number is $0.02, three cents ahead of the analysts' estimate. HRB has a 66% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 21 of the 32 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 21 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 11 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -3.2% comes within 10 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.6% within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. This indicates an "opposite price reaction."
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The post earnings price movement within five trading days has been positive in four of the four most recent quarters with a whisper number. The company did beat the whisper number in only two out of four of these quarters. In the comparable quarter last year, the company reported earnings five cent shorts of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized an 8.9% gain in five trading days. The company did not have a whisper number last quarter. Overall historical data indicates an opposite price reaction following earnings (beat the whisper, see weakness; miss, and see strength). More recent reports indicate a positive short-term price move when the company reports earnings that beat or miss expectations.
Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here, or let us know your expectation in the comments section below.
Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.