When Do The Bears Admit They Are Wrong?

Includes: DIA, IBB, QQQ, SH, SPY, TEI
by: Bill Gunderson

On March 6, 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 6,626. Today the average is at around 14,500. That is a gain of almost 8,000 points. Percentage wise, that translates to a 118% gain. Yet the bears continue to advise me not to get in, it is all smoke and mirrors created by the Fed.

On that same day in March of 2009, the S&P 500 touched the Biblical number of "666." The S&P now stands at just below 1500. That translates into a gain of 132%. Yet I hear on a daily basis not to trust this bull. It is the most hated bull of all time.

Yeah right, I have really hated being invested for the last four years!

The Dow recently hit a new, all-time high, yet I am told that I should be loading up on Gold, Guns, Ammo, and Dried Food.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think that America is on a sustainable course either, but to stand by stubbornly on the sidelines and chide those that are in the market, seems a little short-sighted to me. After all, a 401 (NYSE:K) that was worth $100k in 2009, could be worth about $233k today if invested only in an index fund. Now who is laughing at whom?

Somehow, folks that have been on the sidelines all of this time are proud of the badge that they so nobly wear. They did not get sucked into a fool's bull market.

The facts of the matter are this:

Equities continue to be the best place to be invested right now. In fact risk-on areas like small-caps and mid-caps continue to lead the way:

Data from Best Stocks Now App

The worst places to be invested are the exact areas of the market that the bears are telling me to be invested in: Gold, Commodities, Cash, and even worse yet, short the market!

Data from Best Stocks Now App

Gold is down 3.4% over the last twelve months. The Goldminer's Index is down a whopping 23.4% during the same time period. I guess there is not gold in them thar' hills after all. Shorting the market (NYSEARCA:SH) is down 13% over the last twelve months, while being long the index is up 12.2%. That is a big difference, yet doomsday prophets continue to sell newsletter subscriptions like they are going out of style. It does not take a genius to figure out what the opportunity cost of sitting in cash has been over the last four years.

The leading sectors in the market continue to be risk-on in nature.

Data from Best Stocks Now App

Biotech, Homebuilding and Transportation stocks are not exactly low-risk areas to be invested in, yet they have led the market for almost one year now. I read an article the other day that warned me not to be fooled by this illusionary rebound in housing. I think that the author needs to get out of the house more.

I wrote about the rebound last year. It continues to gather steam.

I guess that the 132% gain in the market over the last four years is all an illusion.

I guess that the increase in housing prices is fake.

I guess that the market hitting new highs should be shrugged off.

I am not saying that the doomsday prophets will not eventually have their day in the sun, I am just saying, that they have been wrong for four years and counting. This current bull market will not last forever. It will eventually come to an end. It will point to take defensive action at that time, maybe even attempt to make money on the way down. Of course, about then the Bears will turn bullish.

I think that this points out how important it is to choose your gurus wisely. It is equally as important to admit when you are wrong and move on.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.