ECRI: U.S. Inflation Pressures Continue to Fall

by: Steven Hansen

Underlying inflationary pressures continued to fall in March 2009, according to the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) published by Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). The value of ECRI's USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.

The USFIG declined to 79.3 (1992=100) in March from 81.0 in February, though its smoothed annualized growth rate edged up to -35.9% from -36.7%. The gauge was pulled down in March mainly by negative contributions from measures of labor market conditions, vendor performance and interest rates, partly offset by positive contributions from measures of loans and commodity prices.

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI stated, “The USFIG is now at a new 50-year low and remains in a clear cyclical downswing, asserting that inflation is still a non-issue.”

Bottom line is that inflation is not a concern now or in the near future.

Disclosure: None