S&P 500 Snapshot: New Interim High On Low Volume

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Includes: BXDB, BXUB, BXUC, EPS, IVV, RSP, RWL, SDS, SFLA, SH, SPXU, SPY, SSO, UPRO, VOO
by: Doug Short

The Dow closed at a new all-time high yesterday, and the final hour of trading in the S&P 500 raised hopes that the broader index would finally follow suit. But the final hour gains leveled off and the index missed the mark, a mere 1.38 points from its all-time high. Yesterday's 0.78% gain was a new interim high. However, weak volume continues to suggest guarded conviction. Tuesday it was 21 percent below its 50-day moving average. Investor confidence in this market seems about on par with yesterday's depressed Consumer Confidence.

Here's a 5-minute of week so far.

Here a daily chart of the SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of trader mentality, especially the volume tell. Tuesday's volume was 32 percent [!] below its 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 is now up 9.65% for 2013 at a new interim high.

From a longer-term perspective, the index is 131.1% above the March 2009 closing low and 0.09% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here's a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

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