EUR/USD Knocks On Fresh 4-Month Lows At 1.2750 - Is The Worst Behind?

Includes: FXE, UDN, UUP
by: FXstreet

EUR/USD could not manage to hold above previous 2013 lows around the 1.2825 level, and broke below it printing fresh 4-month lows at 1.2751 in early New York Wednesday's session. Widening sovereign spreads in the eurozone periphery and political instability in Italy were among the reasons behind, despite the fact Bloomberg reported on a document signaling Cyprus deal was not in any case a "template" for further banking crisis in the eurozone.

With all that, including rumors coming from Italy that a 20% tax on deposits unsecured could be in the making, and more worrisome news coming from Moody's during the Asian session affirming Portugal's rating and negative outlook, EUR/USD has posted Asia-Pacific session highs above 1.2800, while Chinese equity markets have been plunging on fears of possible tightening bias from PBoC to come soon.

"There is nothing in the technical outlook that suggests the euro is not going to trade down toward our target of 1.2650," said Gregory McKenna, GlobalFX CEO and former Head of Currency Strategy at the NAB and Westpac. But something very similar happened back in early February, when EUR/USD was touching fresh 1.5-year highs at 1.3711 and nothing was going to stop it from climbing to 1.3750. Even the almighty Goldman Sachs were calling for 1.40 targets. Counter trading? Who knows. Draghi spoke again, and here we are, almost 1k pips below then.

In the shorter term, "The hourly chart shows 20 SMA heading strongly down above current price, acting as dynamic resistance around 1.2800, while indicators turned flat in oversold levels," said Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at, adding: "In the 4 hours chart technical readings maintain a strong bearish momentum, with short term selling interest now aligned first around 1.2800, but ready to jump in on spikes up to 1.2880 level," she suggests.

EUR/USD is last at 1.2788, a -3.08% lower year to date, -2.06% of it done in last month, and retailer sentiment increasingly bearish. Meanwhile, one of the big German banks was reported with a decent buying interest in EUR/USD around the 1.2800 level, and some middle-east names were also seen placing bids for the euro, FXWW founder Sean Lee noted, while foreign investors put more than €30B to work in Spain for the month of January, versus the €6B were taking out same month last year, Europa Press reported.

"Looking ahead," says BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien, "the next test will be Germany retail sales and unemployment numbers. Economists are looking for a sizeable pullback in German retail sales after a nice rise the prior month but labor market conditions are expected to improve as the PMI reports showing the strongest pace of job growth since January 2012," she notes, adding: "If everyone is right and Thursday's economic reports show improvement in the German economy, the EUR/USD could rebound and aim for a retest of 1.29," she concludes.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.