'Delta Factor' Projections For 20 ETFs

Includes: DBC, VEA, VEU, VFH
by: Lowell Herr

In response to a user request, below are the individual "Delta Factor" projections for twenty ETFs frequently used in one of more of the portfolios tracked here at ITA Wealth Management. Neither the Delta or Delta Factor columns are heavily populated with green or Buy recommendations. Five years of data were used so this puts the beginning period back in the middle of the last major bear market. Due to the recent recovery, future projections are quite modest as this is a reversion-to-the-mean analysis. When we are in the throws of a market bottom, the Delta Factor column lights up with lots of green indicators.

In this revised table, four ETFs show up as potential buys, although I prefer to see green in the Delta column as well. DBC is a good example of how the QPP reversion-to-the-mean works. When a security is down, QPP projects this will not continue and eventually it will snap back and perform better in the future. The further down an ETF falls, the more likely it will indicate a buy in the Delta Factor column. Poor recent performance should serve the investor well sometime over the next five years. The DF does not change rapidly. It is analogous to turning around a large tanker.