Will Banks Lead the Way to 1929 Crash Part II?

by: Andy Abraham

So far we have not seen anything like the stock market crash of 1929. The stock market crash of 2008 has been unforgiving. Did we just experience a Bear Market Rally? Is the SP running out of gas?

Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) said it faces a “fragile” economy. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC), Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) all are stepping up foreclosures on delinquent homeowners. So much for the Obama administration’s housing-rescue plan. Will the unemployment rate exceed 10%? The volatility has been great, stock investing has been tough. Is there another Black Tuesday lurking on the horizon?

Unemployment and Foreclosures

It is impossible to believe anything has been resolved in the economy until two basic issues are addressed, unemployment and home foreclosures. Many of the major banks have lifted internal moratoriums which temporarily halted property foreclosure and home foreclosures.

For example in California, notices of trustee sales, which come before a foreclosure sale, jumped by 80% to 33,178. Virginia foreclosures, Florida foreclosures, Wisconsin foreclosures and Texas foreclosures have all skyrocketed as well.

The number of foreclosures for sale have been increasing dramatically. Add to this the number of houses with adjustable mortgages resetting. Also, the number of foreclosed homes sitting on the books of major banks has been increasing dramatically.

Yes, there are bottom-fishers out there looking to buy cheap, But cheap stands the chance to get cheaper. It is simply a demand and supply issue. Simply the numbers of foreclosed properties and foreclosure properties have added to the supply. Everything is connected.

Banking recovery illusory or fleeting?

The supply of foreclosed homes & foreclosure properties will probably depress home prices more & negatively impact bank earnings as more house foreclosures are written off. If the banks lose more money we can say goodbye to the 25% gain in the stock market. Some are even saying that the stock market crash of 1929 will be considered a walk in the park to what we might face.

This is not my intention to invoke fear but rather just think. We had this great rally based on banks improving earnings. Really how can the major banks improve their earning while facing even more foreclosed homes? It just does not make sense. Who do we believe? It seems hard to believe anything. For example, when the US president bows down to the Saudi King and later we are told he did not bow. Sure the banks are making money. I guess it depends on the accounting method?