Is The Gold 'Bubble' Turning Into A Bear Market?

Includes: GLD, UDN, UUP
by: Emerging Money

By Tim Seymour

If you were to graph the U.S. dollar index against gold you would see very similar things happening in inverse. I agree that U.S. dollar is turning after long bear run. I am more reluctant to say the run in gold is over after 12 years, but there is a case to be made that if the U.S. dollar is breaking trend, so is gold.

Gold's move lower, like the dollar, won't be overnight. But gold is 100% higher from where it was at the end of 2008. The conditions that drove the parabolic move in the gold largely remain intact. Commodity brokers globally are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. This a secular move. Other economies are exposed and there remains tail risk in markets that include Europe and China property.