10 Carnevale Power 25 Index Dogs Augur 6.7% To 34.9% Net Gains In April

by: Fredrik Arnold

This article reports results from Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 Index calculated as of April 4, 2013 projecting gain results one year hence. Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this first installment in a new series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for twelve popular stock indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; Aristocrats; Russell 1000; NASDAQ; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29.

An online tutorial for investors, Investor Glossary, recently offered this brief description of dividend dog methodology: "...[I]nvented to find the 10 stocks of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average with the highest yield (dividend / price) and invest equally in each, [t]he Dow dividend theory also requires that you repeat this process once a year.

Below, the Arnold Carnevale Power 25 Index top dog selections for April were disclosed.

Dog Metrics Ranked Carnevale Power 25 Index Stocks by Yield

Respected stock analyst, Seeking Alpha blogger, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published Our 25 Dividend Growth Stocks Are Dirt Cheap in November, 2011. He listed top 25 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) were available at current valuations; (2) were significantly below their historical norms; (3) remained profitable through the great recession of 2008 and 2009.

Carnevale's top ten Power 25 stocks were ranked by yields calculated as of April 4 to reveal the top ten. Price and dividend data was sourced from Yahoo.com.

The top ten included firms representing six of nine market sectors. The top stock as revealed by Yahoo Finance data, was one of two in the service sector, RR Donnelley & Sons (NASDAQ:RRD), while Sysco Corporation (NYSE:SYY), the other service firm, placed seventh.

The balance of the top ten Power 25 included: two basic materials, Alliance Resource (NASDAQ:ARLP), second dog, and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) in ninth; technology firms were represented by Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), third, and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), eighth; healthcare firms, Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) placed in fourth, and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) slotted tenth; one utility, Nextera Energy (NYSE:NEE) ranked fifth; the lone industrial goods firm, General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE:GD) was sixth representing market sectors.

The full list of Carnevale's Power 25 stocks had five service, five healthcare, three consumer goods, one financial, three basic materials, five industrial, one utility, one technology and no conglomerates representing market sectors.

Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs

Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten Carnevale Power 25 dogs by yield as of market close 4/4/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.

Actionable Conclusion: Carnevale Power 25 & Dow Dogs Pursued Bulls

The Carnevale Power 25 top April dividend payers resumed a bullish course. In the past month Power 25 top ten dog dividend dropped 2.65% while price rose early 9.7%.

In the Dow dogs, meanwhile, annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten dropped over 1.1% since March, while aggregate single share price jumped over 5.3%. The Dow dogs extended their overbought condition as aggregate single share price of the ten continued to exceed projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $121 or 32%.

Since Carnevale Power 25 dogs attempt to achieve all the blue chip high quality equivalents of the Dow list, an additional gauge of upside potential was added to the simple high yield metric used to cull bargains.

Wall Street Wizard Wisdom Weighed

One year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment were used to compare ten stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

Actionable Conclusion Too: Analysts Calculate Over 8.81% Net Gain from Top 20 Carnevale Power 25 Dogs In 2014

The top twenty dogs from Chuck Carnevale's Power 25 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of April 4, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.

Yahoo projected a 7.7% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase nearly 5.2% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.

Actionable Conclusion Three: Analysts Forecast 10 Carnevale Power 25 Dogs to Net 6.7% to 34.9% By April 2014

Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:

Donnelley RR & Sons Inc. (RRD) netted $349.77 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from four analysts less broker fees;

Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) netted $249.54, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by eight analysts less broker fees;

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) netted $154.89 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from twenty-nine analysts less broker fees;

AFLAC Inc. (NYSE:AFL) netted $139.03 based on a mean target price estimate from seventeen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;

General Dynamics Corp. (GD) netted $112.22, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from fifteen analysts less broker fees;

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (NYSE:ITW) netted $110.75 based on estimates from fifteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees;

Intel Corp. (INTC) netted $106.30 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from thirty-seven analysts less broker fees;

Republic Services Inc. (NYSE:RSG) netted $105.00 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees;

Chevron Corporation (CVX) netted $82.23 based on estimates from twenty-two analysts plus dividends less broker fees;

Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON) netted $67.59 based on a mean target price estimate from twenty-three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees.

The average net gain in dividend and price was over 14.7% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs.

The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long DD, GE, INTC, JNJ, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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