GRU chart below.
I have covered my short position. While
I think the valuation on this stock is still fairly rich, it is much more
reasonable than a few weeks ago. I am not a buyer (yet) but there are a number
of ways this stock can gain in my opinion:
- I expect more press releases about partnerships and
traffic in the coming month.
- I think the chief revenue officer hired in Q1, along with Larry Kramer on the board, will bring new strategic ideas that could dramatically ramp revenue. For example, since Rosenschein admitted that the CPC model doesn't translate as well to answers as generic search, why don't they add additional revenue sources like sponsorship of academic-type entries that are not susceptible to targeted ads (e.g. Ben Franklin)? My guess is they could add 30-40% to the top line on that alone. Or why don't they partner with Amazon to link to books about the subjects of these entries?
- Industry reports that online advertising is remaining strong make me believe that the cost they are receiving per click is not eroding.
- The key: while GRU will not reach profitability as early as it would have if managed better, I think it is still quite possible by early 2006. An announcement that GRU is on track for this could send the stock back towards the $20s.