Some Thoughts on the Chrysler Bankruptcy and Supreme Court Stay

Includes: FCAU, GM
by: BlindReason

Just A few Quick Things:

  • It's unlikely that the whole court will take the case, but if it does--the government will likely lose.
  • I think if expediency was not an issue this case would be a slam dunk loss. However, when you examine issues such as what happens to the business from the alternative it adds uncertainty to what the justices might do. Other than that, there is no question that treating subordinated creditors so much more attractively than senior secured pretty much tosses out 150 years of bankruptcy law.
  • One could easily argue that the TARP banks are in effect a separate class and their vote for the plan should be judged separately from lenders that don't have government ownership stakes
  • The Fiat portion of the deal made no sense from the beginning. I have yet to see any documentation that validates or supports Fiat (FIATY.PK) getting any portion of Chrysler let alone 20%. I would much rather see Chrysler and GM (GMGMQ.PK) combine here.

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