Chasing Smartphone Market Share Is A Chump's Game; Why Apple Will Win

May 12, 2013 6:50 AM ETApple Inc. (AAPL)GOOG, SSNLF75 Comments
Bill Shamblin profile picture
Bill Shamblin
106 Followers

First Rule Of Investment: The Media Rewards Dumb & Lazy

Investors demand content 24/7 and the financial media is more than willing to accommodate their need. The problem, however, with this arrangement is the tendency of media to be lazy, take a simplistic approach and fall into a simple, repetitive narrative.

It is just too easy (and often more lucrative) to write something along the lines of, "iPhone share is down, Apple is doomed" as opposed to digging into numbers and providing some new insight.

Whether driven by laziness, ignorance or deadlines, the financial media has a tendency to place too much weight on simple performance metrics and blanket statements when discussing the health of a company's business or its future prospects.

So, how does an investor learn to identify and ignore weak/simplistic insight? One step is to take the time to regularly evaluate a company's long-term opportunities across more robust multi-dimensional metrics.

In this article I hope to show, using fair share analysis of iPhone profits, why I think Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) investors should temper their concern over the recent iPhone market share declines.

However, before we get started, a quick quiz. Let's assume you are offered a choice of investing in two companies. All you know is Company "S" has a 33% share of the market, while Company "A" has an 18% market share. Based on this information, which company would you chose to own?

A) Company S, because it's all about selling more stuff!

B) Company A, only because I suspect this is a trick question.

C) I need more information to make a decision.

D) I think I'm lost, I'm just cruising the net looking for some Kardashian pics.

If you chose answer "C", congrats, you've made your business professors proud. If you chose answer "A", that's somewhat understandable - there will always be

This article was written by

Bill Shamblin profile picture
106 Followers
I use market analysis and emerging trends to identify investing opportunities at the macro level - I look for the "big idea" and the company's best positioned to execute. My career includes stints as as a price and wage economist in Washington DC; a market analyst for a consumer packaged goods behemoth; a market strategist for an ad agency; director of Internet research for a MR firm and communications director for an urban school district. In between these more traditional gigs, I've also worked as head writer for a syndicated comedy show and hosted an afternoon radio program in Cincinnati. BA, economics and computer science, University of Maryland MBA, marketing management and quantitative methods, Georgia Institute of Technology. I currently work as a freelance writer and consultant with my business partner, a 2 y/o green cheeked conure named Hambone.

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