The World Bank's Grim Picture of Emerging Economies

Includes: EEM, EET
by: Research Recap

It is hard to find much positive in the World Bank’s grim economic outlook for emerging economies. True, the Bank did increase its estimate of China’s growth to 7.2% from 6.5% this year, but that is not enough to make much difference. Developing countries are expected to grow by only 1.2% this year, after 8.1% growth in 2007 and 5.9% growth in 2008.

When China and India are excluded, GDP in the remaining developing countries is projected to fall by 1.6%, causing continued job losses and throwing more people into poverty.

Global growth is also expected to be negative, with an expected 2.9% contraction of global GDP in 2009. Global GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2% in 2010 and 3.2% by 2011. In developing countries growth is expected to be higher, at 4.4% in 2010 and 5.7% in 2011, albeit subdued relative to the robust performance prior to the current crisis.

The report documents one depressing statistic or graphic after another.

A few samples: