What a week we had in the markets. It appears as if the economic data is finally starting to matter to the general indexes as they were ignoring the progressively worse and worse data the previous three weeks. This week we saw significant increases in volatility, a significant drop in the dollar, especially against the Japanese Yen, the Japanese market experiencing a major pullback, and misses when it came to GDP, employment, housing, and consumer spending globally. In a phrase, it wasn't good and the people noticed.
I'm extremely bearish going into this week's data (see tables below) across the board with the exception of China (made up numbers) and the UK. I'm not expecting anything extremely bullish from the UK, but I don't expect them to have negative data. Monday's PMI reports out of the Euro Zone and Germany should start the week off into a bearish sentiment and could cause the SPY to break an important technical level at 1630, where it closed on Friday. If this level breaks, we could see 1600 in a hurry as that type of drop would trigger stops similar to what happen in the last few minutes of trading Friday at the close.
Wednesday is our next big data day and it is spread across Euro and US reporting. We get service PMIs for the Euro Zone and some employment and Beige Book data from the US. Anything to the downside, and I'm predicting all to the downside, and the markets should further react in a negative way. There is always the possibility that the markets turn a blind eye as they did the first two weeks of deteriorating data, but I think last week was the turning point where the data matters. Wednesday is key for establishing a concrete trend if the trend leading up to this data is negative.
Thursday is important from a global bank rate decision standpoint, but I am expecting no changes to rates across the board. The trading day will hinge on the jobless claims data which I am expecting to be worse than forecasted. This obviously will leave the markets with a negative sentiment going into Friday.
Friday's marquee event is obviously the Non-Farm Payroll number. I would think that with the trend of negative data for the week, if I'm correct, that this number is a miss and that this closes out a very poor economic data week and what should be a poor week for the SPY and the DIA. If all goes as expected, the market could get as low as 1580 on the SPY, depending on sentiment and the reaction of the global markets.
I continue to hold my short of the SPY at 1666 as noted in my article several weeks ago and will hold for the remainder of the week. Good luck.
Note: The following tables will outline any medium to high importance events, their currency, a forecasted number, and my take as to whether the number will beat expectations (+), meet expectations (=), or miss expectations (-). Doing due diligence on these events and taking a position based on the opinion derived from that research is a way for traders to play the markets using beta movements from these events. My calendar is in no way entirely inclusive of all data events globally, simply the events I will be watching that I feel will impact my trading strategy of being either beta neutral or beta levered. The events in the tables are events that, in my opinion, will have a significant impact on the S&P 500 Index, which can be most closely be followed by watching the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Index, which can most closely be followed by watching the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), and the US Dollar, which can most closely be followed by watching the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEARCA:UUP).
Disclosure: I am short SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.